Wazua
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My stock picks for 2016-2017
Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/7/2016 Posts: 79 Location: Home
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After a long bear market, and after a thorough analysis of the stock market from my "Wanjiku" point of view, I have decided to start my buying spree. With the index hovering around the 3000 mark, I was curious to know which counters were massively undervalued. Interestingly, banking stocks are responsible for the low level of the NSE index. I believe that the banking counters are massively undervalued, despite the law passed capping interest rates. I believe that banks will be creative, to continue posting profits in the long run. For the next 12 months, I have decided to buy undervalued stocks (I have very limited knowledge in accounting). My investment horizon is until 2020 (3-4 years). I am of the opinion that the stock market will trade sideways for the next 6-12 months, after which bulls will return. My year-long journey has began today. Below is my pick: Housing Finance Company FY 2013 - 995 million FY 2014 - 1.0988 billion FY 2015 - 1.1835 billion H1 2016 - 612.553 million (+26%) Forward PE - 2.7 Dividend Yield - 8.87% Buying Price - 14.65 per share From the above information, it is clear that the company has been improving on profitability in the last three years, and this year's H1 results tell the same story. With a dividend yield of almost 9%(company has always paid dividends), and such a low forward PE, coupled with the growth in PAT over the last three and a half years, this is a good buy in my opinion. I will accumulate at any price below 15. Although I do not know how the new law will affect this counter, I assume that the management will devise clever ways of circumventing the law. At the height of the bull market, this counter had a PE of 13. If the company grows its profits, the return should be better.I will accumulate at any price below 15 as I hunt for another undervalued stock. NB: I am no financial expert, this is my Wanjiku opinion. #New Day#
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Hata mimi nakondolea Memba. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/7/2016 Posts: 79 Location: Home
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sparkly wrote:Hata mimi nakondolea Memba. Mimi nakondolea HFCK na nachunguza KCB nione kama inatosha mboga.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 977 Location: Kenya
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Safaricom - data revenue potential, has a higher profit margin than mpesa KCB Equity - if subsidiaries outside Kenya keep growing as fast KCB - Kenyan subsidiary outpaces the rest in the industry Kenol Kobil - reduced debt, improved sale volumes, growing market share Kengen & Kenya Power - If i can get a dividend yield of 6% plus
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 977 Location: Kenya
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Safaricom - data revenue potential, has a higher profit margin than mpesa KCB Equity - if subsidiaries outside Kenya keep growing as fast KCB - Kenyan subsidiary outpaces the rest in the industry Kenol Kobil - reduced debt, improved sale volumes, growing market share Kengen & Kenya Power - If i can get a dividend yield of 6% plus
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/7/2016 Posts: 79 Location: Home
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watesh wrote:Safaricom - data revenue potential, has a higher profit margin than mpesa KCB Equity - if subsidiaries outside Kenya keep growing as fast KCB - Kenyan subsidiary outpaces the rest in the industry Kenol Kobil - reduced debt, improved sale volumes, growing market share Kengen & Kenya Power - If i can get a dividend yield of 6% plus Kengen and KPLC...I wouldn't touch those. Especially KPLC in an election year. Too much government control.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/15/2015 Posts: 817
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watesh wrote:Safaricom - data revenue potential, has a higher profit margin than mpesa KCB Equity - if subsidiaries outside Kenya keep growing as fast KCB - Kenyan subsidiary outpaces the rest in the industry Kenol Kobil - reduced debt, improved sale volumes, growing market share Kengen & Kenya Power - If i can get a dividend yield of 6% plus you cannot go wrong with banks.+1 for kenolkobil though
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:watesh wrote:Safaricom - data revenue potential, has a higher profit margin than mpesa KCB Equity - if subsidiaries outside Kenya keep growing as fast KCB - Kenyan subsidiary outpaces the rest in the industry Kenol Kobil - reduced debt, improved sale volumes, growing market share Kengen & Kenya Power - If i can get a dividend yield of 6% plus you cannot go wrong with banks.+1 for kenolkobil though Ukora imeanza In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 977 Location: Kenya
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I would still buy if i can get my dividend yield. The good thing about them is they are undervalued because of the govt shareholding. Nobody trusts this govt because of their looting. However they wont comprise of more than 10% of my portfolio.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/21/2014 Posts: 184
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Ukora? What do you mean? There are too many opportunities all around. Open your eyes and maybe you'll spot one
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,997 Location: Kitale
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watesh wrote:I would still buy if i can get my dividend yield. The good thing about them is they are undervalued because of the govt shareholding. Nobody trusts this govt because of their looting. However they wont comprise of more than 10% of my portfolio. i agree with u.No one trusts gava because of poor mgt.As long as u get a dividend,its okey for a small portio of one holding their. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/26/2015 Posts: 151
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Did everyone forget about DTB?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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MadDoc wrote:Did everyone forget about DTB? Good stock Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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What about safaricom for the long term...like 10 years? possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 977 Location: Kenya
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MadDoc wrote:Did everyone forget about DTB? I hate their dividend yield and payout ratio. They always want to keep all the money. Am sure if it were not pressure from some shareholders they would keep all the money forever. EPS of 24 DPS of 2.5 yet its still not number 1
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,120 Location: Nairobi
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watesh wrote:MadDoc wrote:Did everyone forget about DTB? I hate their dividend yield and payout ratio. They always want to keep all the money. Am sure if it were not pressure from some shareholders they would keep all the money forever. EPS of 24 DPS of 2.5 yet its still not number 1 Berkshire Hathaway hasn't paid a dividend in decades. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 977 Location: Kenya
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VituVingiSana wrote:watesh wrote:MadDoc wrote:Did everyone forget about DTB? I hate their dividend yield and payout ratio. They always want to keep all the money. Am sure if it were not pressure from some shareholders they would keep all the money forever. EPS of 24 DPS of 2.5 yet its still not number 1 Berkshire Hathaway hasn't paid a dividend in decades. Its not a bank, its more of an investment company. And you can clearly see where the money is going. Growth is phenomenal. DTB on the other hand, it performs on the same level or worse than KCB and Equity who have been paying out 30% -40% of their profits. Q3 2016 DTB had an 11.5% rise in profit, KCB 18%, Equity 18%.....With the interest rate cap expect dividends next year to be stagnant or go lower. DTB might decide to keep all the money
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,120 Location: Nairobi
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watesh wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:watesh wrote:MadDoc wrote:Did everyone forget about DTB? I hate their dividend yield and payout ratio. They always want to keep all the money. Am sure if it were not pressure from some shareholders they would keep all the money forever. EPS of 24 DPS of 2.5 yet its still not number 1 Berkshire Hathaway hasn't paid a dividend in decades. Its not a bank, its more of an investment company. And you can clearly see where the money is going. Growth is phenomenal. DTB on the other hand, it performs on the same level or worse than KCB and Equity who have been paying out 30% -40% of their profits. Q3 2016 DTB had an 11.5% rise in profit, KCB 18%, Equity 18%.....With the interest rate cap expect dividends next year to be stagnant or go lower. DTB might decide to keep all the money You can see where DTB's money goes. KCB has done several LARGE Rights Issues. Last year it was perilously close to breaching a Capital Ratio. I think they cooked the books with the connivance of CBK and Treasury. Something doesn't sit right with me about KCB. DTB does many but "small" Rights Issues every 2-3 years but I think they will slow down the pace unless there is an acquisition coming up. They used the Rights proceeds to invest in their EAC business. Whether it is a bank or investment firm, it makes no difference. What's important is the "investment" required. What's important is the RoE. I like DTB coz they have a conservative streak. KCB does benefit from GoK's largesse & implicit support. Ask why isn't NBK under statutory management? Coz of GoK. So KCB will be bailed out by the taxpayer if the shit hits the fan. DTB in my view is a steady performer. No drama. No uplifting CEO talks all over the place. She sticks to her biashara which has done very well over the years. If had only 3 banks to choose from... DTB, Equity and KCB then it would be Equity & DTB. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/7/2016 Posts: 79 Location: Home
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VituVingiSana wrote:watesh wrote:MadDoc wrote:Did everyone forget about DTB? I hate their dividend yield and payout ratio. They always want to keep all the money. Am sure if it were not pressure from some shareholders they would keep all the money forever. EPS of 24 DPS of 2.5 yet its still not number 1 Berkshire Hathaway hasn't paid a dividend in decades. Yet Berkshire Hathaway does not invest in companies that dont pay dividends...why? I would rather invest in the companies that it invests in, than Berkshire Hathatway itself.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,120 Location: Nairobi
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Mkondoa Macho wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:watesh wrote:MadDoc wrote:Did everyone forget about DTB? I hate their dividend yield and payout ratio. They always want to keep all the money. Am sure if it were not pressure from some shareholders they would keep all the money forever. EPS of 24 DPS of 2.5 yet its still not number 1 Berkshire Hathaway hasn't paid a dividend in decades. Yet Berkshire Hathaway does not invest in companies that dont pay dividends...why? I would rather invest in the companies that it invests in, than Berkshire Hathatway itself. No, BH does not demand a dividend from its investees. Nevertheless, if you can show me that BH only invests in firms that pay dividends... I'll show you what WB has to say about dividends [or return of capital as he calls it].... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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