Wazua
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directional forecast
Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,822 Location: Nakuru
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karasinga wrote:Fyatu wrote:karasinga wrote:Fyatu wrote:karasinga wrote:Fyatu wrote:Thanks @Karasinga for the charts. I try hard to read and understand them. Is it possible to post your thoughts(in cartoon format) on Deacons? Will really appreciate.A chart on Kenya power will also be appreciated fyatu. You are always welcome. deacons(having started trading @ NSE on 2nd August 2016) has little data to put any substantial forecast on. That said, I will post both charts later with my thoughts. cheers mate Asante @Karasinga....looking forward to it. I also intend to visit Mr. Price and analyse the foot traffic especially foot traffic towards payment desk. DCON  hope this helps Thanks Karasinga. Much appreciated. @ fyatu, my apologies for late reply. I thought I posted both DCON and KPLC charts.  KPLC might be currently making a complex wave 4. if this wave count is right, wave 5(to the downside) might follow. Will watch closely PA at the targets on the chart for possible reversal. will keep us updated. baby steps... Thanks Karasinga  . Praying for wave 5 so that i can mop more. Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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karasinga wrote:snipermnoma wrote:karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:snipermnoma wrote:karasinga wrote:snipermnoma wrote:Spikes wrote:
@Karasinga what is your take on Kengen's huge volume 752% above average in today's trade?
@karasinga, yes KEGN cartoon was helpful. It confirmed the mini rally that is expected based on the low P/B plus high div yield. @spikes has pointed out another issue about volume, my take is this is yet another confirmation of an uptick. FY results to be released soon. KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 broke above the upside resistance level of 6.25, 26 day(s) ago. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 6.25 may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite light---92% below average. The most reliable breakouts are accompanied with increased volume. However, prices have risen some distance since breaking out--8.03%, thereby adding more validity to the breakout.  having said that, there is a possibility wave 2 to form either: 1. flat pattern (check gold trend lines on the chart) to the said 6.25. 2. bullish bat pattern to 5.86 (has high confluence with volume at price @ 5.82) currently price seems to be struggling(2 dojis) at a resistance offered by 200MA and the volumes seen in the last two trading days is not in harmony with price movement- indicating weakness.(This could be a "insider" offloading to wait for the price lower)in my humble opinion, we can wait for price patiently between 6.25 and 5.82.(but do your due deligence) hope this helps baby steps... The fundamentals to support this are in. PAT down and no dividend. Down it comes. Again cartoons pointed an expected outcome...that is coming to pass. ON THE FLIP SIDE. A deeper postmortem of KEGN, PA has for the last 2 days closed>200sma. This could mean high volume seen recently were breaking resistance offer by SMA(6.86). 5 day ADR is low(0.0825 cents) . It will be interesting to see what happens on 21st oct 2016. A close > 6.9 might confirm the bulls but a close < 6.9 might confirm presence of bears. Remember "anything can happen". PA is the king Baby steps... what.....! PA is the king... @karasinga Indeed. Weighted price today was 5.95. Anything can happen but cartoons tend to aid in seeing the direction the market is more likely to take. KEGN: Volume price analysis 1. Anomaly present. Price not in harmony with the volume. (Fig 2.) 2. Where are we? The KEGN just experienced a panic move after an announcement of no dividends. A panic move because KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 having FY ended June 2016 revenue of 38.61 billion shillings versus 29.95 billion shillings year ago and FY ended June 2016 profit before tax of 11.26 billion shillings versus 8.69 billion shillings year ago- this company is fundamentally sound. A deeper look KEGN has reached a point where no matter how much more effort (volume from wanjiku) is applied, is now resistant to lower prices, and the buyers (insiders/market makers) are knocking back the selling. In my humble opinion, it is the selling which is happily being absorbed by the buying, and once again signals a potential reversal point as the market runs out of steam. If we were to imagine a profile of the volume bar in terms of selling and buying volumes, the buyers would just outweigh the sellers, reflecting the narrow price spread. After all, if the selling had followed through, then we would have seen a wide spread down candle, and not a narrow spread candle. In a nut shell, towards the end of this phase (accumulation phase), the insiders usually marks prices down rapidly (see what happened on 21st Oct. 2016), flushing out more sellers, before moving the price higher later in the session to close somewhere near the opening price, helped higher by their own buying in the market, with bargain hunters (like wazuans) also sensing that the market is 'over sold' at this level. 3. RSI is oversold and diverging at the same time high volumes are present (Fig 1.) 4. Market at exhaustion points of monthly fib pivot points. (Fig 3.) 5. Expectation. High volume should be seen moving up the price (once market makers/insiders are done buying at wholesale) and an obstacle around 6.6 should be penetrated with high volume. I think this is a reversal in the offing. VVS and other fundamental gurus can guide or correct this bearish bat in the making and accumulation phase in details (follow the numbers to get my thought process)  fig 1 closer look  fig 2 monthly pivots  fig 3 Baby steps… nice moves It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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KEGN taking too long to test 5 handle means buyers are rapidly absorbing the sellers. I was hoping the 5 handle would be tested during the panic selloff post results, but the buyers have other ideas  @sparkly are you still hanging on? $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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Spikes wrote:karasinga wrote:BTAK my humble thoughts  baby steps... According to the above chart it appears to me that the price will plunge to 7-5.7 bob next year Jan. i.e. if the cartoon is drawn to scale. update  DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,937
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karasinga wrote:Spikes wrote:karasinga wrote:BTAK my humble thoughts baby steps... According to the above chart it appears to me that the price will plunge to 7-5.7 bob next year Jan. i.e. if the cartoon is drawn to scale. update DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis Am finished completely or am completely finished on this one  In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/28/2014 Posts: 188 Location: Nairobi
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karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:snipermnoma wrote:karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:snipermnoma wrote:karasinga wrote:snipermnoma wrote:Spikes wrote:
@Karasinga what is your take on Kengen's huge volume 752% above average in today's trade?
@karasinga, yes KEGN cartoon was helpful. It confirmed the mini rally that is expected based on the low P/B plus high div yield. @spikes has pointed out another issue about volume, my take is this is yet another confirmation of an uptick. FY results to be released soon. KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 broke above the upside resistance level of 6.25, 26 day(s) ago. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 6.25 may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite light---92% below average. The most reliable breakouts are accompanied with increased volume. However, prices have risen some distance since breaking out--8.03%, thereby adding more validity to the breakout. having said that, there is a possibility wave 2 to form either: 1. flat pattern (check gold trend lines on the chart) to the said 6.25. 2. bullish bat pattern to 5.86 (has high confluence with volume at price @ 5.82) currently price seems to be struggling(2 dojis) at a resistance offered by 200MA and the volumes seen in the last two trading days is not in harmony with price movement- indicating weakness.(This could be a "insider" offloading to wait for the price lower)in my humble opinion, we can wait for price patiently between 6.25 and 5.82.(but do your due deligence) hope this helps baby steps... The fundamentals to support this are in. PAT down and no dividend. Down it comes. Again cartoons pointed an expected outcome...that is coming to pass. ON THE FLIP SIDE. A deeper postmortem of KEGN, PA has for the last 2 days closed>200sma. This could mean high volume seen recently were breaking resistance offer by SMA(6.86). 5 day ADR is low(0.0825 cents) . It will be interesting to see what happens on 21st oct 2016. A close > 6.9 might confirm the bulls but a close < 6.9 might confirm presence of bears. Remember "anything can happen". PA is the king Baby steps... what.....! PA is the king... @karasinga Indeed. Weighted price today was 5.95. Anything can happen but cartoons tend to aid in seeing the direction the market is more likely to take. KEGN: Volume price analysis 1. Anomaly present. Price not in harmony with the volume. (Fig 2.) 2. Where are we? The KEGN just experienced a panic move after an announcement of no dividends. A panic move because KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 having FY ended June 2016 revenue of 38.61 billion shillings versus 29.95 billion shillings year ago and FY ended June 2016 profit before tax of 11.26 billion shillings versus 8.69 billion shillings year ago- this company is fundamentally sound. A deeper look KEGN has reached a point where no matter how much more effort (volume from wanjiku) is applied, is now resistant to lower prices, and the buyers (insiders/market makers) are knocking back the selling. In my humble opinion, it is the selling which is happily being absorbed by the buying, and once again signals a potential reversal point as the market runs out of steam. If we were to imagine a profile of the volume bar in terms of selling and buying volumes, the buyers would just outweigh the sellers, reflecting the narrow price spread. After all, if the selling had followed through, then we would have seen a wide spread down candle, and not a narrow spread candle. In a nut shell, towards the end of this phase (accumulation phase), the insiders usually marks prices down rapidly (see what happened on 21st Oct. 2016), flushing out more sellers, before moving the price higher later in the session to close somewhere near the opening price, helped higher by their own buying in the market, with bargain hunters (like wazuans) also sensing that the market is 'over sold' at this level. 3. RSI is oversold and diverging at the same time high volumes are present (Fig 1.) 4. Market at exhaustion points of monthly fib pivot points. (Fig 3.) 5. Expectation. High volume should be seen moving up the price (once market makers/insiders are done buying at wholesale) and an obstacle around 6.6 should be penetrated with high volume. I think this is a reversal in the offing. VVS and other fundamental gurus can guide or correct this bearish bat in the making and accumulation phase in details (follow the numbers to get my thought process) fig 1 closer look fig 2 monthly pivots fig 3 Baby steps… nice moves For some of its not yet versed in the art of technical analysis...we beg that you include a buy/hold/sell analysis at the end...  Offering my personal finance knowledge for free
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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hisah wrote:KEGN taking too long to test 5 handle means buyers are rapidly absorbing the sellers. I was hoping the 5 handle would be tested during the panic selloff post results, but the buyers have other ideas Technically, 5 looks unreasonable but you know "anything can happen" in financial markets. let me elaborate well by the chart below(as usual). Check from the left and find a good demand zone which held the market very well. If the chart is right and you want to board this bus, it would be better to wait for the price around 5.8 (to get a wholesale price (like the market makers/insiders). Market may retest Demand zone before moving on.  In the mean time, stay safe. baby steps... It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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Angelica _ann wrote:karasinga wrote:Spikes wrote:karasinga wrote:BTAK my humble thoughts baby steps... According to the above chart it appears to me that the price will plunge to 7-5.7 bob next year Jan. i.e. if the cartoon is drawn to scale. update DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis Am finished completely or am completely finished on this one Welcome Angelica ann. It is nice seeing you around . I don't think you a completely finished yet not unless BTAK runs bankrupt and closes business. Your investment is still sound but(if you boarded this bus at high prices) you will take a longer time to recoup (no wonder I am not a long term trader). Still have a chance to average down. I hope this forecast is right. cheers mate. You are always welcome to post. baby steps... It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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nashx wrote:For some of its not yet versed in the art of technical analysis...we beg that you include a buy/hold/sell analysis at the end... welcome nashx. I understand your valid concern very well and honestly, this is something I have been trying to avoid(check my disclaimer). Come to think of it, this thread could easily become a signal service zoo...! I do share potential live set ups and that I think is how it should be. My intent is to help us see what has not been posted here before(technicals) and see how it should influences how we manage our trades. I hope this makes sense. cheers mate. It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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UCHM  we are watching you... eyes on the market baby steps... It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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