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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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snipermnoma wrote:karasinga wrote:hisah wrote:karasinga wrote:hisah wrote:karasinga wrote:NMG my thoughts on the chart. Potential ABCD pattern in the making.  I have my target at 110 then an overshoot at 100. IF NMG issue a profit warning during H1 and this actualizes to a loss instead of profit reduction, then the floor will continue breaking down. UPDATE  baby steps... NMG is testing the overshoot! The poor HY results have given the bears teeth. Next critical support lies around the GFC panic floor cluster around 75 - 85 zone! Break below 75 handle will be very critical leading to losses towards next buffer at 30 - 50 levels! I agree with you hisah. price overstayed in the aforementioned potential reversal zone, an indication of a possible failure. NMG still on the watch list. nice post Chief. keep them coming. This one just cannot seem to stop the slide. The HY results were wanting and unless the FY results improve significantly, this one is not recovering anytime soon. http://www.nation.co.ke/...html-t84n25z/index.html
update  If you keenly check the area earlier expected to offer support to NMG(with the benefit of hindsight), market makers(volume) were not interested. I expect high volumes to start coming in slowly if the targets are to be valid. pivots  STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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karasinga wrote:hisah wrote:karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 broke above the upside resistance level of 3.43, 2 day(s) ago. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 3.43 may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite heavy--94% above average. This makes the breakout even more significant. If you decide to trade Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00, you may want to place a stop loss just below the resistance level, in case the breakout is premature.
baby steps... technically... my thoughts in the chart.  baby steps... update. current rally might be wave 4. just thinking....  DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis a spinning top formed yesterday(26th Oct) indicating uncertainty/indecision. if a bearish candle forms today(27th) at this resistance level(7), it could be used as an exit point(if on board). High volumes seen in the last 3 trading days might indicate profit taking(offloading to wanjiku) by an "insider" to wait for KQ at a lower price. My fear is to wanjiku who will be wooed to the gallow by the sweet news. shaffing might start shortly...will watch patiently for price action around 3.9 baby steps... UPDATE  The extreme negatively had to be reset at some point thus the ugly gap ups to the current highs. As noted the volume spike is setting in at the highs which means distribution is taking place. The expected correction will likely retest the 4.50 resistance level now turned support before any further upside can be seen. The fact that KQ tested 3.4 and rejected further losses, which I thought wasn't going to play out is a solid warning to the bears to be cautious of a sharp turn ahead! I cautioned us on 27th Oct because it was becoming obvious something was not right. An expectation that is continually being met. Market makers used "good news" to ensure wanjiku will always get it wrong. always buying at the top and selling at the bottom. look closely how they push price up during the day(to entice) and sell off by close of business. doing everything not to scare the goose that made the golden eggs. what a pity! price will only drop after they are done emptying their warehouses at retail prices. My eyes on the market. update as on 9th nov at 1250hrs in my humble opinion 12(as predicted in another thread) is unreasonable.  up in stair but down with an elevator. baby steps... It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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karasinga wrote:Arm ARM has been on a downward trend from a high of 98.5 on 14th jan 2014. This decline has possibly been a zigzag (ABC) correction as shown below. The alternative wave count of 5 waves down, present on our chart, should be kept in mind to avoid being clobbered by Mr. Market if our wave count doesn’t favor us.  Our latest preferred count is that the wave IV of a 5-wave series from 48 ended at 34.5. The decline, since then, is believed to be working toward the end of wave v of 5 with the implication that the downtrend will be completed soon either forming: 1. Wave C, The last leg of zigzag or 2. (3) Of 5- wave series in a downward trend. Expectation: With the above two probable options, a rally is a must have. Why is this so? If the downtrend will complete C of zigzag, then five wave impulse upward will form If the downtrend will complete (3) of 5- wave series, then wave 4 correction will form. POTENTIAL REVERSAL TARGETS With the news that ARM Cement will cede a controlling stake to a strategic investor after it opted to offer new ordinary shares to the new partner and increased the buyout cost by Sh1.4 billion. Instead of 12.6 billion they offered 14 billion  Target 1 = 27.15 (high probability because a major gann level at 26.8 and symmetry at 26.9 are forming a price cluster with this target) Target 2 = 25.75 Target 3 = 22.8 ARM broke above the upside resistance level of 27.75 today(9th nov 2016). This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 27.75 may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was neither extremely heavy nor extremely light--providing no convincing evidence either way as to the validity of the breakout.  baby steps... STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:Arm ARM has been on a downward trend from a high of 98.5 on 14th jan 2014. This decline has possibly been a zigzag (ABC) correction as shown below. The alternative wave count of 5 waves down, present on our chart, should be kept in mind to avoid being clobbered by Mr. Market if our wave count doesn’t favor us. Our latest preferred count is that the wave IV of a 5-wave series from 48 ended at 34.5. The decline, since then, is believed to be working toward the end of wave v of 5 with the implication that the downtrend will be completed soon either forming: 1. Wave C, The last leg of zigzag or 2. (3) Of 5- wave series in a downward trend. Expectation: With the above two probable options, a rally is a must have. Why is this so? If the downtrend will complete C of zigzag, then five wave impulse upward will form If the downtrend will complete (3) of 5- wave series, then wave 4 correction will form. POTENTIAL REVERSAL TARGETS With the news that ARM Cement will cede a controlling stake to a strategic investor after it opted to offer new ordinary shares to the new partner and increased the buyout cost by Sh1.4 billion. Instead of 12.6 billion they offered 14 billion Target 1 = 27.15 (high probability because a major gann level at 26.8 and symmetry at 26.9 are forming a price cluster with this target) Target 2 = 25.75 Target 3 = 22.8 ARM broke above the upside resistance level of 27.75 today(9th nov 2016). This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 27.75 may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was neither extremely heavy nor extremely light--providing no convincing evidence either way as to the validity of the breakout. baby steps... STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis there we go   It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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karasinga wrote:Metch wrote:karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:karasinga wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:[quote=karasinga]This train has left station. currently too expensive to board. why? Making a NSH and a potential resistance around 9.
plan.
exercise Great patience and wait. Wait for price to speak. wazuans are hunters not chasers. Price will speak and tell us what it wants to do.
expectation.
planning to go long between 7.2 and 6.2. again, Price will speak and tell us what it wants to do. volume action not convincing to warrant a rally. the recent gains July to date have been on vapor volumes. Pump n dump? @karasinga post cables chart here let us know if the dump has taken place @mkate nusu bearish divergence with RSI  EXPECTATION 1. higher low(watch how price interact with the green lines) 2. a deep retracement 3. a strong rally might follow.(check my chart)  hope this helps @karasinga thanks. my observations from the chart as a student of your analysis: (feel free to correct me) 1. The 9 resistance was strongly rejected. (Shame on the vultures that tried dumping.) Can your software chart Fibonacci retracements from this level. 38.2% and 61.8% 2. Support at 8 is looking weak and 7.60 was tested intraday showing sellers are present 3. If a break below 7.50 happens during next sessions there is high chance we shall revisit the key 6.00 - 6.20 support level 4. From your analysis are you watching out 7.50 as a potential support? I ask coz there are gaps from 6 - 7.50 range on the upswing movement. freshas of stock markets having difficulty interpreting the above: 1. eacables touched a low of 5.90 on 4th April and twice again on 3rd June and 14th June 2. Since then it has made a 53.4 % gain in 2 months to touch a high of 9.05 on 17th August on thinly traded net negative volumes 3. The wolves of the market(they have no names and are not known to us but don't be fooled they are real) were trying to dump at the 10 level. However this was met with informed investors thanks to @karasinga and other chartists goodwill who have since rejected to be swindled at 9 and above Watch from distance and grab some popcorn while you're at it cabl might be leaving station  update hope you wont mind my cluttered chart  the last time CABL traded within extremes of monthly fib pivot(june 2016) a rally ensued. baby steps... DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis[/quote CABL in chart defying manoeuvres has not left the station as predicted. Karasinga, please post the latest chart Metch, If price lingers then that is a clue that perhaps we might need to take a better look. PA IS THE KING. wait for some moves any time as from 28th Oct.  hope this helps. nice move. It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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@karasinga your call on CABL and ARM is being validated by the market. Kudos.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,378 Location: Nairobi
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snipermnoma wrote:@karasinga your call on CABL and ARM is being validated by the market. Kudos. Good call on ARM. I think (fundamentals) will look better as well as interest costs drop significantly, the delayed projects come back online, suppliers start re-supplying ARM and the SGR extension is forced to source cement from Kenyan firms. I think [share price notwithstanding] it will take ARM 12-18 months [post elections] to get back to minting cash. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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VituVingiSana wrote:snipermnoma wrote:@karasinga your call on CABL and ARM is being validated by the market. Kudos. Good call on ARM. I think (fundamentals) will look better as well as interest costs drop significantly, the delayed projects come back online, suppliers start re-supplying ARM and the SGR extension is forced to source cement from Kenyan firms. I think [share price notwithstanding] it will take ARM 12-18 months [post elections] to get back to minting cash. your are all welcome. I am greatly humbled when Mr. Market validates my feeble analysis It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:Arm ARM has been on a downward trend from a high of 98.5 on 14th jan 2014. This decline has possibly been a zigzag (ABC) correction as shown below. The alternative wave count of 5 waves down, present on our chart, should be kept in mind to avoid being clobbered by Mr. Market if our wave count doesn’t favor us. Our latest preferred count is that the wave IV of a 5-wave series from 48 ended at 34.5. The decline, since then, is believed to be working toward the end of wave v of 5 with the implication that the downtrend will be completed soon either forming:
1. Wave C, The last leg of zigzag or
2. (3) Of 5- wave series in a downward trend.
Expectation:
With the above two probable options, a rally is a must have.
Why is this so?
If the downtrend will complete C of zigzag, then five wave impulse upward will form
If the downtrend will complete (3) of 5- wave series, then wave 4 correction will form.POTENTIAL REVERSAL TARGETS With the news that ARM Cement will cede a controlling stake to a strategic investor after it opted to offer new ordinary shares to the new partner and increased the buyout cost by Sh1.4 billion. Instead of 12.6 billion they offered 14 billion Target 1 = 27.15 (high probability because a major gann level at 26.8 and symmetry at 26.9 are forming a price cluster with this target) Target 2 = 25.75 Target 3 = 22.8 ARM broke above the upside resistance level of 27.75 today(9th nov 2016). This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 27.75 may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was neither extremely heavy nor extremely light--providing no convincing evidence either way as to the validity of the breakout. baby steps... STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis there we go trying to live on the right side of the chart. graphical representation of my expectation.  probable exits for swing traders target 1= 41.25 to 43.75 target 2= 46.85 to 50 target 3= 58.75 to 67.45  stay safe baby steps... It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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Fyatu wrote:karasinga wrote:Fyatu wrote:karasinga wrote:Fyatu wrote:Thanks @Karasinga for the charts. I try hard to read and understand them. Is it possible to post your thoughts(in cartoon format) on Deacons? Will really appreciate.A chart on Kenya power will also be appreciated fyatu. You are always welcome. deacons(having started trading @ NSE on 2nd August 2016) has little data to put any substantial forecast on. That said, I will post both charts later with my thoughts. cheers mate Asante @Karasinga....looking forward to it. I also intend to visit Mr. Price and analyse the foot traffic especially foot traffic towards payment desk. DCON  hope this helps Thanks Karasinga. Much appreciated. @ fyatu, my apologies for late reply. I thought I posted both DCON and KPLC charts.  KPLC might be currently making a complex wave 4. if this wave count is right, wave 5(to the downside) might follow. Will watch closely PA at the targets on the chart for possible reversal. will keep us updated. baby steps... It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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