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directional forecast
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VituVingiSana
#371 Posted : Thursday, November 03, 2016 4:36:44 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,378
Location: Nairobi
On KK, I see solid fundamental growth. The "Poa" promotion will push volumes up but I do not know why Ohana is pushing volumes over holding stocks are prices rise. The profit per liter would increase even after accounting for storage costs as prices rise.

On the other hand, if KK has committed to buying more volumes from suppliers then it has to push more volumes as the stock comes in. I hope that KK signs up many solid & high-usage K-Card holders during November!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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hisah
#372 Posted : Friday, November 04, 2016 2:18:15 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
karasinga wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
NMG
my thoughts on the chart. Potential ABCD pattern in the making.

I have my target at 110 then an overshoot at 100. IF NMG issue a profit warning during H1 and this actualizes to a loss instead of profit reduction, then the floor will continue breaking down.

UPDATE

baby steps...
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis

NMG is testing the overshoot! The poor HY results have given the bears teeth. Next critical support lies around the GFC panic floor cluster around 75 - 85 zone! Break below 75 handle will be very critical leading to losses towards next buffer at 30 - 50 levels!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#373 Posted : Friday, November 04, 2016 2:26:07 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 broke above the upside resistance level of 3.43, 2 day(s) ago. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 3.43 may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite heavy--94% above average. This makes the breakout even more significant. If you decide to trade Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00, you may want to place a stop loss just below the resistance level, in case the breakout is premature.
baby steps...

technically... my thoughts in the chart.

baby steps...

update.
current rally might be wave 4. just thinking....

DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis

a spinning top formed yesterday(26th Oct) indicating uncertainty/indecision. if a bearish candle forms today(27th) at this resistance level(7), it could be used as an exit point(if on board). High volumes seen in the last 3 trading days might indicate profit taking(offloading to wanjiku) by an "insider" to wait for KQ at a lower price. My fear is to wanjiku who will be wooed to the gallow by the sweet news. shaffing might start shortly...
will watch patiently for price action around 3.9
baby steps...

UPDATE



The extreme negatively had to be reset at some point thus the ugly gap ups to the current highs. As noted the volume spike is setting in at the highs which means distribution is taking place. The expected correction will likely retest the 4.50 resistance level now turned support before any further upside can be seen. The fact that KQ tested 3.4 and rejected further losses, which I thought wasn't going to play out is a solid warning to the bears to be cautious of a sharp turn ahead!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, November 05, 2016 6:42 AM | Reason: Not specified
karasinga
#374 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2016 6:24:22 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
VituVingiSana wrote:
On KK, I see solid fundamental growth. The "Poa" promotion will push volumes up but I do not know why Ohana is pushing volumes over holding stocks are prices rise. The profit per liter would increase even after accounting for storage costs as prices rise.

On the other hand, if KK has committed to buying more volumes from suppliers then it has to push more volumes as the stock comes in. I hope that KK signs up many solid & high-usage K-Card holders during November!

I see your point. more K-card holders = more loyal customers= more consistent profit. good marketing trick indeed.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, November 07, 2016 6:49 AM | Reason: Not specified
karasinga
#375 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2016 7:07:06 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
NMG
my thoughts on the chart. Potential ABCD pattern in the making.

I have my target at 110 then an overshoot at 100. IF NMG issue a profit warning during H1 and this actualizes to a loss instead of profit reduction, then the floor will continue breaking down.

UPDATE

baby steps...
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis

NMG is testing the overshoot! The poor HY results have given the bears teeth. Next critical support lies around the GFC panic floor cluster around 75 - 85 zone! Break below 75 handle will be very critical leading to losses towards next buffer at 30 - 50 levels!

I agree with you hisah. price overstayed in the aforementioned potential reversal zone, an indication of a possible failure. NMG still on the watch list. nice post Chief. keep them coming.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, November 07, 2016 7:10 AM | Reason: Not specified
karasinga
#376 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2016 7:29:04 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 broke above the upside resistance level of 3.43, 2 day(s) ago. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 3.43 may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite heavy--94% above average. This makes the breakout even more significant. If you decide to trade Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00, you may want to place a stop loss just below the resistance level, in case the breakout is premature.
baby steps...

technically... my thoughts in the chart.

baby steps...

update.
current rally might be wave 4. just thinking....

DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis

a spinning top formed yesterday(26th Oct) indicating uncertainty/indecision. if a bearish candle forms today(27th) at this resistance level(7), it could be used as an exit point(if on board). High volumes seen in the last 3 trading days might indicate profit taking(offloading to wanjiku) by an "insider" to wait for KQ at a lower price. My fear is to wanjiku who will be wooed to the gallow by the sweet news. shaffing might start shortly...
will watch patiently for price action around 3.9
baby steps...

UPDATE



The extreme negatively had to be reset at some point thus the ugly gap ups to the current highs. As noted the volume spike is setting in at the highs which means distribution is taking place. The expected correction will likely retest the 4.50 resistance level now turned support before any further upside can be seen. The fact that KQ tested 3.4 and rejected further losses, which I thought wasn't going to play out is a solid warning to the bears to be cautious of a sharp turn ahead!

I cautioned us on 27th Oct because it was becoming obvious something was not right. An expectation that is continually being met. Market makers used "good news" to ensure wanjiku will always get it wrong. always buying at the top and selling at the bottom.
look closely how they push price up during the day(to entice) and sell off by close of business. doing everything not to scare the goose that made the golden eggs. what a pity!

price will only drop after they are done emptying their warehouses at retail prices. My eyes on the market.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, November 07, 2016 8:05 AM | Reason: Not specified
Ebenyo
#377 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2016 9:36:39 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 2,022
Location: Kitale
@karasinga,Please give directional forecast for safaricom from now upto aprill 2017.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
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snipermnoma
#378 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2016 2:04:58 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
Ebenyo wrote:
@karasinga,Please give directional forecast for safaricom from now upto aprill 2017.


@Ebenyo as a start check post 320 on page 16. link
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snipermnoma
#379 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2016 2:12:51 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
karasinga wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
NMG
my thoughts on the chart. Potential ABCD pattern in the making.

I have my target at 110 then an overshoot at 100. IF NMG issue a profit warning during H1 and this actualizes to a loss instead of profit reduction, then the floor will continue breaking down.

UPDATE

baby steps...
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis

NMG is testing the overshoot! The poor HY results have given the bears teeth. Next critical support lies around the GFC panic floor cluster around 75 - 85 zone! Break below 75 handle will be very critical leading to losses towards next buffer at 30 - 50 levels!

I agree with you hisah. price overstayed in the aforementioned potential reversal zone, an indication of a possible failure. NMG still on the watch list. nice post Chief. keep them coming.


This one just cannot seem to stop the slide. The HY results were wanting and unless the FY results improve significantly, this one is not recovering anytime soon.

http://www.nation.co.ke/...html-t84n25z/index.html
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Ebenyo
#380 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2016 11:00:11 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 2,022
Location: Kitale
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Othelo wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
[quote=karasinga][quote=brayosylvan]I have narrowed down my trading to Kengen, Safaricom and Standard Chartered- I want to make my money as consistently as possible mostly by dividend and stock value changes. I need someone to analyze these 3 companies; I make 3 trades per year and my projection is at least a minimum of 50% return on investment. Who has the dates and the graphs for 2017? I know safaricom has already announced closing date in December- kindly some analysis on the other 2 stocks...

@brayosylvan. welcome to this thread. Here we show the market as it is and currently learning to live on the right side of the chart as opposed to the left. left side is the past and past is the past, but can help us know where we are. Those are excellent thoughts and requests you have there.... any one to provide more data in excel format(OHLC) and will work on it. baby steps....smile

@brayosylvan. let me try scom. i repeat, let me try. hope this helps
my thoughts on the chart. hope this pattern and other before are not forced. its lonely here wazuan. opinions plz


IF HOLDING SCOM WATCH CAREFULLY
targets almost being hit.below is a chart as on 26th july 2016 at 1340hrs with targets well labeled.

STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis

'we' are in this until RIP so no worries smile


UPDATE
hope you wont mind my busy chart. will get clean with time

baby steps...


When a simple pattern develops in a wave ‘2’ position(like it did for scom), a more complex pattern that combines patterns may develop in the wave ‘4’ position. This is known as the guideline of alternation.possible buy target between 17.9 and 17.5

watching closely. baby steps.

@karasinga,good work.These will be good buy targets at 17.9 and 17.5 Let me remain hopeful.Realising this will continue keeping my abp low.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
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