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My stock picks for 2016-2017
Mkondoa Macho
#1 Posted : Wednesday, November 02, 2016 9:13:27 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/7/2016
Posts: 79
Location: Home
After a long bear market, and after a thorough analysis of the stock market from my "Wanjiku" point of view, I have decided to start my buying spree. With the index hovering around the 3000 mark, I was curious to know which counters were massively undervalued. Interestingly, banking stocks are responsible for the low level of the NSE index. I believe that the banking counters are massively undervalued, despite the law passed capping interest rates. I believe that banks will be creative, to continue posting profits in the long run. For the next 12 months, I have decided to buy undervalued stocks (I have very limited knowledge in accounting). My investment horizon is until 2020 (3-4 years). I am of the opinion that the stock market will trade sideways for the next 6-12 months, after which bulls will return. My year-long journey has began today. Below is my pick:
Housing Finance Company
FY 2013 - 995 million
FY 2014 - 1.0988 billion
FY 2015 - 1.1835 billion
H1 2016 - 612.553 million (+26%)
Forward PE - 2.7
Dividend Yield - 8.87%
Buying Price - 14.65 per share
From the above information, it is clear that the company has been improving on profitability in the last three years, and this year's H1 results tell the same story. With a dividend yield of almost 9%(company has always paid dividends), and such a low forward PE, coupled with the growth in PAT over the last three and a half years, this is a good buy in my opinion. I will accumulate at any price below 15. Although I do not know how the new law will affect this counter, I assume that the management will devise clever ways of circumventing the law. At the height of the bull market, this counter had a PE of 13. If the company grows its profits, the return should be better.I will accumulate at any price below 15 as I hunt for another undervalued stock.
NB: I am no financial expert, this is my Wanjiku opinion.
#New Day#
sparkly
#2 Posted : Wednesday, November 02, 2016 9:29:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Hata mimi nakondolea Memba.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Mkondoa Macho
#3 Posted : Wednesday, November 02, 2016 9:40:31 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/7/2016
Posts: 79
Location: Home
sparkly wrote:
Hata mimi nakondolea Memba.

Mimi nakondolea HFCK na nachunguza KCB nione kama inatosha mboga.
watesh
#4 Posted : Thursday, November 03, 2016 12:51:03 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 977
Location: Kenya
Safaricom - data revenue potential, has a higher profit margin than mpesa
KCB
Equity - if subsidiaries outside Kenya keep growing as fast
KCB - Kenyan subsidiary outpaces the rest in the industry
Kenol Kobil - reduced debt, improved sale volumes, growing market share
Kengen & Kenya Power - If i can get a dividend yield of 6% plus
watesh
#5 Posted : Thursday, November 03, 2016 12:53:52 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 977
Location: Kenya
Safaricom - data revenue potential, has a higher profit margin than mpesa
KCB
Equity - if subsidiaries outside Kenya keep growing as fast
KCB - Kenyan subsidiary outpaces the rest in the industry
Kenol Kobil - reduced debt, improved sale volumes, growing market share
Kengen & Kenya Power - If i can get a dividend yield of 6% plus
Mkondoa Macho
#6 Posted : Thursday, November 03, 2016 2:47:23 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/7/2016
Posts: 79
Location: Home
watesh wrote:
Safaricom - data revenue potential, has a higher profit margin than mpesa
KCB
Equity - if subsidiaries outside Kenya keep growing as fast
KCB - Kenyan subsidiary outpaces the rest in the industry
Kenol Kobil - reduced debt, improved sale volumes, growing market share
Kengen & Kenya Power - If i can get a dividend yield of 6% plus

Kengen and KPLC...I wouldn't touch those. Especially KPLC in an election year. Too much government control.
Cornelius Vanderbilt
#7 Posted : Tuesday, November 08, 2016 9:46:43 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/15/2015
Posts: 817
watesh wrote:
Safaricom - data revenue potential, has a higher profit margin than mpesa
KCB
Equity - if subsidiaries outside Kenya keep growing as fast
KCB - Kenyan subsidiary outpaces the rest in the industry
Kenol Kobil - reduced debt, improved sale volumes, growing market share
Kengen & Kenya Power - If i can get a dividend yield of 6% plus


you cannot go wrong with banks.+1 for kenolkobil though
Angelica _ann
#8 Posted : Tuesday, November 08, 2016 10:19:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,908
Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:
watesh wrote:
Safaricom - data revenue potential, has a higher profit margin than mpesa
KCB
Equity - if subsidiaries outside Kenya keep growing as fast
KCB - Kenyan subsidiary outpaces the rest in the industry
Kenol Kobil - reduced debt, improved sale volumes, growing market share
Kengen & Kenya Power - If i can get a dividend yield of 6% plus


you cannot go wrong with banks.+1 for kenolkobil though

Ukora imeanza Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
watesh
#9 Posted : Tuesday, November 08, 2016 10:46:28 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 977
Location: Kenya
Angelica _ann wrote:
Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:
watesh wrote:
Safaricom - data revenue potential, has a higher profit margin than mpesa
KCB
Equity - if subsidiaries outside Kenya keep growing as fast
KCB - Kenyan subsidiary outpaces the rest in the industry
Kenol Kobil - reduced debt, improved sale volumes, growing market share
Kengen & Kenya Power - If i can get a dividend yield of 6% plus


you cannot go wrong with banks.+1 for kenolkobil though

Ukora imeanza Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad

I would still buy if i can get my dividend yield. The good thing about them is they are undervalued because of the govt shareholding. Nobody trusts this govt because of their looting. However they wont comprise of more than 10% of my portfolio.
actuarywahisa
#10 Posted : Wednesday, November 23, 2016 7:23:59 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/21/2014
Posts: 184
Angelica _ann wrote:
Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:
watesh wrote:
Safaricom - data revenue potential, has a higher profit margin than mpesa
KCB
Equity - if subsidiaries outside Kenya keep growing as fast
KCB - Kenyan subsidiary outpaces the rest in the industry
Kenol Kobil - reduced debt, improved sale volumes, growing market share
Kengen & Kenya Power - If i can get a dividend yield of 6% plus


you cannot go wrong with banks.+1 for kenolkobil though

Ukora imeanza Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad


Ukora? What do you mean?
There are too many opportunities all around. Open your eyes and maybe you'll spot one
Ebenyo
#11 Posted : Wednesday, November 23, 2016 8:17:20 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
watesh wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:
watesh wrote:
Safaricom - data revenue potential, has a higher profit margin than mpesa
KCB
Equity - if subsidiaries outside Kenya keep growing as fast
KCB - Kenyan subsidiary outpaces the rest in the industry
Kenol Kobil - reduced debt, improved sale volumes, growing market share
Kengen & Kenya Power - If i can get a dividend yield of 6% plus


you cannot go wrong with banks.+1 for kenolkobil though

Ukora imeanza Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad

I would still buy if i can get my dividend yield. The good thing about them is they are undervalued because of the govt shareholding. Nobody trusts this govt because of their looting. However they wont comprise of more than 10% of my portfolio.


i agree with u.No one trusts gava because of poor mgt.As long as u get a dividend,its okey for a small portio of one holding their.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
MadDoc
#12 Posted : Wednesday, November 23, 2016 8:58:26 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/26/2015
Posts: 151
Did everyone forget about DTB?smile
sparkly
#13 Posted : Thursday, November 24, 2016 9:15:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
MadDoc wrote:
Did everyone forget about DTB?smile

Good stock
Life is short. Live passionately.
maka
#14 Posted : Thursday, November 24, 2016 9:40:08 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
What about safaricom for the long term...like 10 years?
possunt quia posse videntur
watesh
#15 Posted : Thursday, November 24, 2016 9:45:43 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 977
Location: Kenya
MadDoc wrote:
Did everyone forget about DTB?smile

I hate their dividend yield and payout ratio. They always want to keep all the money. Am sure if it were not pressure from some shareholders they would keep all the money forever. EPS of 24 DPS of 2.5 yet its still not number 1
VituVingiSana
#16 Posted : Thursday, November 24, 2016 6:11:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
watesh wrote:
MadDoc wrote:
Did everyone forget about DTB?smile

I hate their dividend yield and payout ratio. They always want to keep all the money. Am sure if it were not pressure from some shareholders they would keep all the money forever. EPS of 24 DPS of 2.5 yet its still not number 1

Berkshire Hathaway hasn't paid a dividend in decades.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
watesh
#17 Posted : Thursday, November 24, 2016 7:02:19 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 977
Location: Kenya
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
MadDoc wrote:
Did everyone forget about DTB?smile

I hate their dividend yield and payout ratio. They always want to keep all the money. Am sure if it were not pressure from some shareholders they would keep all the money forever. EPS of 24 DPS of 2.5 yet its still not number 1

Berkshire Hathaway hasn't paid a dividend in decades.

Its not a bank, its more of an investment company. And you can clearly see where the money is going. Growth is phenomenal.
DTB on the other hand, it performs on the same level or worse than KCB and Equity who have been paying out 30% -40% of their profits. Q3 2016 DTB had an 11.5% rise in profit, KCB 18%, Equity 18%.....With the interest rate cap expect dividends next year to be stagnant or go lower. DTB might decide to keep all the money
VituVingiSana
#18 Posted : Thursday, November 24, 2016 7:17:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
watesh wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
MadDoc wrote:
Did everyone forget about DTB?smile

I hate their dividend yield and payout ratio. They always want to keep all the money. Am sure if it were not pressure from some shareholders they would keep all the money forever. EPS of 24 DPS of 2.5 yet its still not number 1

Berkshire Hathaway hasn't paid a dividend in decades.

Its not a bank, its more of an investment company. And you can clearly see where the money is going. Growth is phenomenal.
DTB on the other hand, it performs on the same level or worse than KCB and Equity who have been paying out 30% -40% of their profits. Q3 2016 DTB had an 11.5% rise in profit, KCB 18%, Equity 18%.....With the interest rate cap expect dividends next year to be stagnant or go lower. DTB might decide to keep all the money

You can see where DTB's money goes.

KCB has done several LARGE Rights Issues. Last year it was perilously close to breaching a Capital Ratio. I think they cooked the books with the connivance of CBK and Treasury. Something doesn't sit right with me about KCB.

DTB does many but "small" Rights Issues every 2-3 years but I think they will slow down the pace unless there is an acquisition coming up. They used the Rights proceeds to invest in their EAC business.

Whether it is a bank or investment firm, it makes no difference. What's important is the "investment" required. What's important is the RoE.

I like DTB coz they have a conservative streak. KCB does benefit from GoK's largesse & implicit support. Ask why isn't NBK under statutory management? Coz of GoK. So KCB will be bailed out by the taxpayer if the shit hits the fan.

DTB in my view is a steady performer. No drama. No uplifting CEO talks all over the place. She sticks to her biashara which has done very well over the years.

If had only 3 banks to choose from... DTB, Equity and KCB then it would be Equity & DTB.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Mkondoa Macho
#19 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2016 10:20:21 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/7/2016
Posts: 79
Location: Home
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
MadDoc wrote:
Did everyone forget about DTB?smile

I hate their dividend yield and payout ratio. They always want to keep all the money. Am sure if it were not pressure from some shareholders they would keep all the money forever. EPS of 24 DPS of 2.5 yet its still not number 1

Berkshire Hathaway hasn't paid a dividend in decades.

Yet Berkshire Hathaway does not invest in companies that dont pay dividends...why? I would rather invest in the companies that it invests in, than Berkshire Hathatway itself.
VituVingiSana
#20 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2016 10:36:04 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
Mkondoa Macho wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
MadDoc wrote:
Did everyone forget about DTB?smile

I hate their dividend yield and payout ratio. They always want to keep all the money. Am sure if it were not pressure from some shareholders they would keep all the money forever. EPS of 24 DPS of 2.5 yet its still not number 1

Berkshire Hathaway hasn't paid a dividend in decades.

Yet Berkshire Hathaway does not invest in companies that dont pay dividends...why? I would rather invest in the companies that it invests in, than Berkshire Hathatway itself.

No, BH does not demand a dividend from its investees. Nevertheless, if you can show me that BH only invests in firms that pay dividends... I'll show you what WB has to say about dividends [or return of capital as he calls it]....
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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