Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Yuan headed to GFC levels yet there is no market reaction! In the meantime, China has massaged its GDP numbers to read 6.7% for one too many quarters.
Every CB is staring at the deflation monster and sweating. Who will fall first? Whoever that CB will be, the outcome will send a nasty shockwave into the system. While fate decides that outcome, currency devaluation is the only way out. USD will continue to gain as all debtors run around trying to pay down their debt. This is spiking the demand for the scarce USD.
Next stop, helicopter money as the bulldozer option to face this ugly deflation monster! What deflation? Get OPEC to raise inflation and there you have it. December prick the bubbles. Easy
A moderated 6 clip growth or beating nought point growth expectations, choose.
Deflation is here and/or coming in all shapes and sizes; from imminent debt defaults, technology driven disruptions, aging populations, sagging social schemes, unconventional policies(NIRP etc), poor long term economic outlooks (for advanced economies) and so forth. Managing such, is beyond any entity despite their proclamations to the contrary. The global economy can be Japanized pretty quick, some for longer periods than others (years vs decades).
To the best of my knowledge, devaluation of currencies in the current environment is a zero sum game. With both world trade and world economic growth at 15 year lows there will be no winner, just a bunch of people holding worthless paper. Not that it will stop most from trying but the end game is a lose-lose outcome.
With regards to oil, I am still waiting for it at below $20pb.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.