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karasinga
#361 Posted : Sunday, October 30, 2016 10:17:10 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
Spikes wrote:

@Karasinga what is your take on Kengen's huge volume 752% above average in today's trade?


@karasinga, yes KEGN cartoon was helpful. It confirmed the mini rally that is expected based on the low P/B plus high div yield. @spikes has pointed out another issue about volume, my take is this is yet another confirmation of an uptick. FY results to be released soon.


KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 broke above the upside resistance level of 6.25, 26 day(s) ago. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 6.25 may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite light---92% below average. The most reliable breakouts are accompanied with increased volume. However, prices have risen some distance since breaking out--8.03%, thereby adding more validity to the breakout.

having said that, there is a possibility wave 2 to form either:
1. flat pattern (check gold trend lines on the chart) to the said 6.25.
2. bullish bat pattern to 5.86 (has high confluence with volume at price @ 5.82)
currently price seems to be struggling(2 dojis) at a resistance offered by 200MA and the volumes seen in the last two trading days is not in harmony with price movement- indicating weakness.(This could be a "insider" offloading to wait for the price lower)

in my humble opinion, we can wait for price patiently between 6.25 and 5.82.(but do your due deligence)
hope this helps
baby steps...


The fundamentals to support this are in. PAT down and no dividend. Down it comes. Again cartoons pointed an expected outcome...that is coming to pass.

ON THE FLIP SIDE.
A deeper postmortem of KEGN, PA has for the last 2 days closed>200sma. This could mean high volume seen recently were breaking resistance offer by SMA(6.86). 5 day ADR is low(0.0825 cents) . It will be interesting to see what happens on 21st oct 2016. A close > 6.9 might confirm the bulls but a close < 6.9 might confirm presence of bears. Remember "anything can happen". PA is the king
Baby steps...

what.....! PA is the king...Applause


@karasinga Indeed. Weighted price today was 5.95. Anything can happen but cartoons tend to aid in seeing the direction the market is more likely to take.

KEGN:
Volume price analysis
1. Anomaly present. Price not in harmony with the volume. (Fig 2.)
2. Where are we?
The KEGN just experienced a panic move after an announcement of no dividends. A panic move because KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 having FY ended June 2016 revenue of 38.61 billion shillings versus 29.95 billion shillings year ago and FY ended June 2016 profit before tax of 11.26 billion shillings versus 8.69 billion shillings year ago- this company is fundamentally sound.

A deeper look KEGN has reached a point where no matter how much more effort (volume from wanjiku) is applied, is now resistant to lower prices, and the buyers (insiders/market makers) are knocking back the selling.

In my humble opinion, it is the selling which is happily being absorbed by the buying, and once again signals a potential reversal point as the market runs out of steam. If we were to imagine a profile of the volume bar in terms of selling and buying volumes, the buyers would just outweigh the sellers, reflecting the narrow price spread. After all, if the selling had followed through, then we would have seen a wide spread down candle, and not a narrow spread candle.

In a nut shell, towards the end of this phase (accumulation phase), the insiders usually marks prices down rapidly (see what happened on 21st Oct. 2016), flushing out more sellers, before moving the price higher later in the session to close somewhere near the opening price, helped higher by their own buying in the market, with bargain hunters (like wazuans) also sensing that the market is 'over sold' at this level.
3. RSI is oversold and diverging at the same time high volumes are present (Fig 1.)
4. Market at exhaustion points of monthly fib pivot points. (Fig 3.)
5. Expectation. High volume should be seen moving up the price (once market makers/insiders are done buying at wholesale) and an obstacle around 6.6 should be penetrated with high volume.
I think this is a reversal in the offing.
VVS and other fundamental gurus can guide or correct this

bearish bat in the making and accumulation phase in details(follow the numbers to get my thought process)
fig 1
closer look
fig 2
monthly pivots
fig 3
Baby steps…
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, October 31, 2016 7:02 AM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#362 Posted : Monday, October 31, 2016 5:14:07 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,378
Location: Nairobi
@karasingha - I don't buy GoK firms [except KenRe] so I haven't looked at KenGen in detail. Its costs are hard for a layman like me to understand. They have steam wells that are supposed to last 25 years but what if they do not? Is their production cost in line with lowest cost? Are they buying equipment at the best price/value?

KenGen had to convert debt into equity during the Rights Issue. Will that happen again?

Not my cup of tea.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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obiero
#363 Posted : Monday, October 31, 2016 7:42:20 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,321
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@karasingha - I don't buy GoK firms [except KenRe] so I haven't looked at KenGen in detail. Its costs are hard for a layman like me to understand. They have steam wells that are supposed to last 25 years but what if they do not? Is their production cost in line with lowest cost? Are they buying equipment at the best price/value?

KenGen had to convert debt into equity during the Rights Issue. Will that happen again?

Not my cup of tea.

@wazua this mercenary was once a significant shareholder at KQ. And what's so different at KENRE
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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WWW
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VituVingiSana
#364 Posted : Monday, October 31, 2016 11:12:44 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,378
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@karasingha - I don't buy GoK firms [except KenRe] so I haven't looked at KenGen in detail. Its costs are hard for a layman like me to understand. They have steam wells that are supposed to last 25 years but what if they do not? Is their production cost in line with lowest cost? Are they buying equipment at the best price/value?

KenGen had to convert debt into equity during the Rights Issue. Will that happen again?

Not my cup of tea.

@wazua this mercenary was once a significant shareholder at KQ. And what's so different at KENRE


Trust
I did not trust KQ's managers in 2012 when they pushed Project Mawingu. I currently trust KenRe's managers.

Yes, once upon a time, KQ formed a significant portion of my portfolio. Then came "Project Mawingu" and I saw the darkness approach. In my naivete, I held on to the shares thinking that KQ's board, management and GoK will see the hole they were digging... Finally, in 2012, I bailed out at 13-14. Amen!

On why I hold KenRe? There's a thread somewhere on Wazua. Google it.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, October 31, 2016 11:38 AM | Reason: Not specified
lochaz-index
#365 Posted : Monday, October 31, 2016 12:26:45 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
karasinga wrote:
TPS

are there any fundamentals that might support this analysis?
baby steps...
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


I think you are onto something.

IMO it will be hard to break the resistance at 25 unless the second half 2016 numbers are very good.

25 is still +7/- from today's price of 18/- so that's a positive. I think 1H will be so-so but 2H is worth looking forward to ceteris paribus. I am in TPSEA coz of the management & "cheap" price.

I've been stocking up on this one lately - as and when I get cash. I would prefer the price lingers in the upper teens for a while longer before taking off.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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mkate_nusu
#366 Posted : Monday, October 31, 2016 2:19:08 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/30/2016
Posts: 332
Location: Kayole
karasinga wrote:
TPS

are there any fundamentals that might support this analysis?
baby steps...
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


TPS is akin to EAPORTLAND cement in the making.
Too much competition going forward in their traditionally strong core business

*my analysis on TPS is contrary to that of most wazuans
KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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moneydust
#367 Posted : Monday, October 31, 2016 6:03:17 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 304
mkate_nusu wrote:
karasinga wrote:
TPS

are there any fundamentals that might support this analysis?
baby steps...
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


TPS is akin to EAPORTLAND cement in the making.
Too much competition going forward in their traditionally strong core business

*my analysis on TPS is contrary to that of most wazuans


Same opinion here.I wonder why anyone would want to invest in this company as an ordinary shareholder.The tourism sector is too erratic for comfort.
Hii ni moto ya kuotea mbali..
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karasinga
#368 Posted : Wednesday, November 02, 2016 8:55:13 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
Spikes wrote:

@Karasinga what is your take on Kengen's huge volume 752% above average in today's trade?


@karasinga, yes KEGN cartoon was helpful. It confirmed the mini rally that is expected based on the low P/B plus high div yield. @spikes has pointed out another issue about volume, my take is this is yet another confirmation of an uptick. FY results to be released soon.


KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 broke above the upside resistance level of 6.25, 26 day(s) ago. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 6.25 may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite light---92% below average. The most reliable breakouts are accompanied with increased volume. However, prices have risen some distance since breaking out--8.03%, thereby adding more validity to the breakout.

having said that, there is a possibility wave 2 to form either:
1. flat pattern (check gold trend lines on the chart) to the said 6.25.
2. bullish bat pattern to 5.86 (has high confluence with volume at price @ 5.82)
currently price seems to be struggling(2 dojis) at a resistance offered by 200MA and the volumes seen in the last two trading days is not in harmony with price movement- indicating weakness.(This could be a "insider" offloading to wait for the price lower)

in my humble opinion, we can wait for price patiently between 6.25 and 5.82.(but do your due deligence)
hope this helps
baby steps...


The fundamentals to support this are in. PAT down and no dividend. Down it comes. Again cartoons pointed an expected outcome...that is coming to pass.

ON THE FLIP SIDE.
A deeper postmortem of KEGN, PA has for the last 2 days closed>200sma. This could mean high volume seen recently were breaking resistance offer by SMA(6.86). 5 day ADR is low(0.0825 cents) . It will be interesting to see what happens on 21st oct 2016. A close > 6.9 might confirm the bulls but a close < 6.9 might confirm presence of bears. Remember "anything can happen". PA is the king
Baby steps...

what.....! PA is the king...Applause


@karasinga Indeed. Weighted price today was 5.95. Anything can happen but cartoons tend to aid in seeing the direction the market is more likely to take.

KEGN:
Volume price analysis
1. Anomaly present. Price not in harmony with the volume. (Fig 2.)
2. Where are we?
The KEGN just experienced a panic move after an announcement of no dividends. A panic move because KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 having FY ended June 2016 revenue of 38.61 billion shillings versus 29.95 billion shillings year ago and FY ended June 2016 profit before tax of 11.26 billion shillings versus 8.69 billion shillings year ago- this company is fundamentally sound.

A deeper look KEGN has reached a point where no matter how much more effort (volume from wanjiku) is applied, is now resistant to lower prices, and the buyers (insiders/market makers) are knocking back the selling.

In my humble opinion, it is the selling which is happily being absorbed by the buying, and once again signals a potential reversal point as the market runs out of steam. If we were to imagine a profile of the volume bar in terms of selling and buying volumes, the buyers would just outweigh the sellers, reflecting the narrow price spread. After all, if the selling had followed through, then we would have seen a wide spread down candle, and not a narrow spread candle.

In a nut shell, towards the end of this phase (accumulation phase), the insiders usually marks prices down rapidly (see what happened on 21st Oct. 2016), flushing out more sellers, before moving the price higher later in the session to close somewhere near the opening price, helped higher by their own buying in the market, with bargain hunters (like wazuans) also sensing that the market is 'over sold' at this level.
3. RSI is oversold and diverging at the same time high volumes are present (Fig 1.)
4. Market at exhaustion points of monthly fib pivot points. (Fig 3.)
5. Expectation. High volume should be seen moving up the price (once market makers/insiders are done buying at wholesale) and an obstacle around 6.6 should be penetrated with high volume.
I think this is a reversal in the offing.
VVS and other fundamental gurus can guide or correct this

bearish bat in the making and accumulation phase in details(follow the numbers to get my thought process)
fig 1
closer look
fig 2
monthly pivots
fig 3
Baby steps…

UPDATE
watching now with the new pivots for the month

It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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karasinga
#369 Posted : Wednesday, November 02, 2016 9:05:45 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I have NO idea what all this means. All I know is that based on KK's (forecasted) PAT [excluding the KPRL write-offs] the profits are going to be very good. The price may not rise [election year, etc] but the payoff will come as profits continue increasing and folks see the value of KK.
I assume KK's board decided to clean up the books readying it up for a sale. Even though KPRL/GOK have agreed that money is owed to OMCs by KPRL, there is no consensus on when the money will be paid so KK is writing it off but the claim may remain out there for the future. A suggestion GoK/ERC rejected was to add KES 0.10/liter to fuel products that would go to payoff the debt KPRL owes to OMCs. A sale of KPRL's tanks/land would also help repay the debt. It's a matter of if not when.

[quote=karasinga]KENO

targets of wave 5
1. 12.3
2. 13.2
3. 15
more data,the more clearer it gets.
opinions and comments/criticism are highly welcomed
baby steps...

True to your word, "I will keep popping in to see what is happening"
welcome back VVS. long time no see. You are one among chiefs in wazua i keenly follow and listen to. I am therefore delighted to have you around.

my post on KENO almost always triggers our discussion(not to mention you can know which counter one holds based on their comments).
With all due respect, what this cartoon means is exactly what you put(fundamentally) but in a different form(technical). I am looking for a day when fundamentals will flow freely the way you make it look; easy.
feel free to post. your posts are food to my thoughts

UPDATE
the going is good

baby steps...
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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karasinga
#370 Posted : Wednesday, November 02, 2016 9:48:36 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 broke above the upside resistance level of 3.43, 2 day(s) ago. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 3.43 may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite heavy--94% above average. This makes the breakout even more significant. If you decide to trade Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00, you may want to place a stop loss just below the resistance level, in case the breakout is premature.
baby steps...

technically... my thoughts in the chart.

baby steps...

update.
current rally might be wave 4. just thinking....

DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis

a spinning top formed yesterday(26th Oct) indicating uncertainty/indecision. if a bearish candle forms today(27th) at this resistance level(7), it could be used as an exit point(if on board). High volumes seen in the last 3 trading days might indicate profit taking(offloading to wanjiku) by an "insider" to wait for KQ at a lower price. My fear is to wanjiku who will be wooed to the gallow by the sweet news. shaffing might start shortly...
will watch patiently for price action around 3.9
baby steps...

UPDATE


It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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