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fundamental investment
mukiha
#21 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 1:05:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
guru267 wrote:
Accounts Payable: reflects future costs of the firm
Accounts receivable: reflects future income of the firm
Long term liabilities: reflects future interest and principal payments the firm has to make

Just an example...

Will these tell me if the business will be profitable in the future?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
Chaka
#22 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 1:46:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/16/2007
Posts: 2,114
@guru267,
Are you an accountant?In this game I believe it pays to be one.
kenstat
#23 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 1:46:24 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/31/2009
Posts: 43
Location: Tundra
mukiha wrote:
@kenstat:
Since 1954; is that young?

Young in the sense of corporate governance. I still believe there is significant information that insiders have that most retail investors do not have access to that they use for their own advantage.
kenstat
#24 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 1:51:30 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/31/2009
Posts: 43
Location: Tundra
guru267 wrote:
@kenstat i find it hard to agree with you about the income statement and cash flow statement being more important than the balance sheet when making long term investments

although the cashflow and income statement are also important in decision making, they can seriously change even within a year as a result change in economic situation or events whereas the balance sheet gives a long term picture of business operations and sustainabilty...

in short the cashflow and income statements are ideal for short term investors but they are exposed to too many variables for me to use them extensively to gauge a company's long term perfomance...



Totally disagree. You look at all statements to give you a view of the company in the long run. So if I look at the income statement and cashflow, I look over a period of 5 to 10 years to get a sense of the trends. Looking at one years of ststement and making a decision based on that would be dangerous.

BTW, the balance sheet give the picture of the company at a point in time (the date they are published). By the next day, maneno may be totally diffrent from what the balance sheet potrays.Plus these statements are not isolated as we make them sound. What's in the balance sheet captures the activity reflected in the income statement.
mukiha
#25 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 1:55:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Chaka wrote:
@guru267,
Are you an accountant?In this game I believe it pays to be one.

Do you imply that the most successful stock investors are mostly accountants?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
Chaka
#26 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 1:59:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/16/2007
Posts: 2,114
mukiha wrote:
Chaka wrote:
@guru267,
Are you an accountant?In this game I believe it pays to be one.

Do you imply that the most successful stock investors are mostly accountants?


Not necessarily but I believe they have a head start
kenstat
#27 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 2:00:16 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/31/2009
Posts: 43
Location: Tundra
mukiha wrote:
Financial statements are about the past, not the future. How does one assess the future?


If I may...
Yes they are about the past but that is a very limited view. They are the only instruments you have that show you how management has perfomed to date. And more likely than not, the same level of perfomance will be maintained in the future unless something changes in management or the market.

In terms of sesseing the future, they are a starting point. Based on past financials, you can project the future statement (the brokers should most like ly be doing this and passing the infor to their clients in terms of ratings/recomendations).Bsed on this you can do a discounted cashflow analysis, arrive at a value for the company, compare it to todays value, etc etc etc.
Swali, if statements don't matter, what do you base your decisons to invest on?
tonicasert
#28 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 2:05:54 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
guru267 wrote:
mukiha wrote:
Financial statements are about the past, not the future. How does one assess the future?


you are exactly right about financial statements reflecting the past... the only one with access to some future aspects is the balance sheet....

Accounts Payable: reflects future costs of the firm
Accounts receivable: reflects future income of the firm
Long term liabilities: reflects future interest and principal payments the firm has to make

Just an example...


From my little accounting knowledge, accounts payable and receivables are just debts and amts due to creditors in future for transactions already done in the current financial period, and the P&L accrued, and hence do not reflect future income/costs.

Nways, I think with NSE, the bigger macro-environment is more important to look at in making a fundamental analysis > Eg. cheap imports from China & Taiwan will undercut business for Firestone, hence the expected future income is low = lower share price; Safaricom facing additional comepetion, but still having a strong holding and expanding product line = stable to stronger share price etc.

Note: a low P/E could either mean:
- The share price is undervalued, and it may be a good pick.
- Markets have priced in low future income expectations, hence the lower price and P/E.

my 2cts...
mukiha
#29 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 2:17:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
kenstat wrote:

Swali, if statements don't matter, what do you base your decisons to invest on?


Do you mean that financial statements are the only way to assess a prospective stock for investment?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
mukiha
#30 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 2:20:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
tonicasert wrote:
I think with NSE, the bigger macro-environment is more important to look at in making a fundamental analysis > Eg. cheap imports from China & Taiwan will undercut business for Firestone, hence the expected future income is low

Does this not apply in developed countries?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
guru267
#31 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 2:21:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
tonicasert wrote:
From my little accounting knowledge, accounts payable and receivables are just debts and amts due to creditors in future for transactions already done in the current financial period, and the P&L accrued, and hence do not reflect future income/costs.


@tonicasert your missing the key words here "receivable" and "payable" meaning these are accounts not yet paid and not yet received so yes they do reflect the future....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
guru267
#32 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 2:27:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mukiha wrote:
Do you mean that financial statements are the only way to assess a prospective stock for investment?


having good macro economic knowledge even in kenya is another way... this knowledge can help one know which sectors will decline and which will explode regardless of current financials....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
kenstat
#33 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 2:30:45 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/31/2009
Posts: 43
Location: Tundra
mukiha wrote:
kenstat wrote:

Swali, if statements don't matter, what do you base your decisons to invest on?


Do you mean that financial statements are the only way to assess a prospective stock for investment?

You avoided my question...
mukiha
#34 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 2:43:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
guru267 wrote:
having good macro economic knowledge even in kenya is another way... this knowledge can help one know which sectors will decline and which will explode regardless of current financials....

Looking at the macro-environment, do you think Unga "will explode" or will it implode "regardless of current financials"?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
Cowpoke
#35 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 3:12:35 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/16/2007
Posts: 36
@Mukiha, The way to analyse a company's fundamentals is by starting by analysing firm's financials, the quality and utilisation of the firm's assets, liabilities, and equity using the various ratios.
After analysing all this, the key thing to analyse any investment or in this case, stock, is sustainable competitive advantage. Basically, how competitive the company is and the likelihood that its going to keep that competitiveness in the near future due to no. of competitors, ease of entry into market, its margins, type of business & its effect on cashflows, target market etc. All this is tempered with economic and consumer trends.

If you only use the past financials, Eveready would definitely look like a grossly underpriced stock but by looking at its competitive advantage, it wouldnt be worth spending any coin on the stock.
I hope that has been helpful.
2012
#36 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 3:32:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
mukiha wrote:
Do you mean that financial statements are the only way to assess a prospective stock for investment?



Financials are not the only way but financial consistency counts for a lot. Future outlook/vision, relevance, innovation and investment in technology are key too. A good example is Apple or Nokia, you'll hardly find anyone with a 3310 yet it was a household name just the other day, Nokia still is.

BBI will solve it
:)
Gatheuzi
#37 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 4:08:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
There is no one rule of picking investments based on fundumental analysis.

Personally I first look at the market and macro-economic conditions. This way you can tell if there are revenues in the sector and how competitive the sector is.

I then look at how profitable the firm has been say over the last couple of years.

I will then review the balance sheet and the cash flow statements to know how the assets employed are contributing to the bottom line.

It is also important to know what strategies the company is pursing vis a vis its future prospects.

There is no strict order to this but at least I must get to know how each of these variables will impact on my investment.
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
Much Know
#38 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 5:03:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
Best stocks thread on sk i have seen (note: not investment nor speculation but stocks thread). I will give my two cents. Test yourself and see what it takes to beat the market for sure. Its the books, the ideas, the economy, patience, rumors, professional insight, opportunity. its a few things and you dont have to be a genious (spelling?). That is fundah-mentality, you need to be like that, it is in my view impossible to teach someone to be an 'intelligent investor' it is more like a talent. There are limits to how you can teach someone to be a 'good dancer, singer, actor, painter'. Test yourself, if you can't beat the nse index most of the time and by at least 5% on chosen timed stretches/targets, let someone else do it for you or look for another business you can understand. But stocks not withstanding the aforesaid is a pretty simple way to grow wealth.
A New Kenya
Mkimwa
#39 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 5:54:21 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/26/2008
Posts: 380
guru267 wrote:
Accounts Payable: reflects future costs of the firm
Accounts receivable: reflects future income of the firm
Long term liabilities: reflects future interest and principal payments the firm has to make

Just an example...


Past and present MAY dictate the future, e.g. an Investing activity in a new plant, plane, technology means higher efficiencies, higher productivity in the future, and also increases competitive edge. Not the sole factor for sure, hence looking at the cash flow statements is very important.

Other key factor far from the figures:
- Strong management, experience, achievements of the management staff is important.
- Would you buy their products if you were the customer? If a strong YES, then there is demand for the companies products and hence a going concern.
- If you are a professional, look for companies in your area of expertise, and analyse them based on you expert knowledge of the sector,e.g. market conditions, competitiveness.
guru267
#40 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 7:11:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mukiha wrote:
Looking at the macro-environment, do you think Unga "will explode" or will it implode "regardless of current financials"?


looking at the macro environment... all i can say is that the rains are falling this year and grains are giving bumper harvests and hence falling prices which spells well for Unga since it buys the maize and wheat....

kenyans still love their unga and they have a few subsidiaries in uganda so as the economy improves and more money in peoples pockets means more unga on their tables

higher revenues + lower costs =???????? smile
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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