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Investors Lounge
karanjakinuthia
#321 Posted : Saturday, May 01, 2010 8:45:54 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
“We are Wall Street. It’s our job to make money. Whether it’s a commodity, stock, bond, or some hypothetical piece of fake paper, it doesn’t matter. We would trade baseball cards if it were profitable. I didn’t hear America complaining when the market was roaring to 14,000 and everyone’s 401k doubled every 3 years. Just like gambling, its not a problem until you lose. I’ve never heard of anyone going to Gamblers Anonymous because they won too much in Vegas.

Well now the market crapped out, & even though it has come back somewhat, the government and the average Joes are still looking for a scapegoat. God knows there has to be one for everything. Well, here we are.

Go ahead and continue to take us down, but you’re only going to hurt yourselves. What’s going to happen when we can’t find jobs on the Street anymore? Guess what: We’re going to take yours. We get up at 5am & work till 10pm or later. We’re used to not getting up to pee when we have a position. We don’t take an hour or more for a lunch break. We don’t demand a union. We don’t retire at 50 with a pension. We eat what we kill, and when the only thing left to eat is on your dinner plates, we’ll eat that.

For years teachers and other unionized labor have had us fooled. We were too busy working to notice. Do you really think that we are incapable of teaching 3rd graders and doing landscaping? We’re going to take your cushy jobs with tenure and 4 months off a year and whine just like you that we are so-o-o-o underpaid for building the youth of America. Say goodbye to your overtime and double time and a half. I’ll be hitting grounders to the high school baseball team for $5k extra a summer, thank you very much.

So now that we’re going to be making $85k a year without upside, Joe Mainstreet is going to have his revenge, right? Wrong! Guess what: we’re going to stop buying the new 80k car, we aren’t going to leave the 35 percent tip at our business dinners anymore. No more free rides on our backs. We’re going to landscape our own back yards, wash our cars with a garden hose in our driveways. Our money was your money. You spent it. When our money dries up, so does yours.

The difference is, you lived off of it, we rejoiced in it. The Obama administration and the Democratic National Committee might get their way and knock us off the top of the pyramid, but it’s really going to hurt like hell for them when our fat a**es land directly on the middle class of America and knock them to the bottom.

We aren’t dinosaurs. We are smarter and more vicious than that, and we are going to survive. The question is, now that Obama & his administration are making Joe Mainstreet our food supply…will he? and will they?”
karanjakinuthia
#322 Posted : Sunday, May 02, 2010 7:10:46 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Consider the implications of the statement below for the Euro as a global reserve currency.

"As we discussed in our Q4-09 Broyhill Letter, it appears that the EU’s initial plan of action (see illustration below) was not exactly a robust plan after all. At the time, we suggested that Mr. Almunnia consult his history books, when he claimed that “There is no bailout problem. In the euro area, default does not exist.” Actually, European nations have defaulted on their debt a stunning 73 times since 1800, with Greece in default more than 50% of the time!...."

Read more

http://www.businessinsid...times-since-1800-2010-4

karanjakinuthia
#323 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 7:06:35 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
The Big Fat Greek Bailout.

"BRUSSELS — European governments and the International Monetary Fund on Sunday committed to pull Greece back from the brink of default, agreeing on euro110 billion in emergency loans on the condition Athens make painful budget cuts and tax increases.

The rescue is aimed at keeping Greece from defaulting on its debts and preventing its financial crisis from infecting other indebted countries just as Europe is struggling out of recession.

After chiding Athens for years of mismanagement and cheating on their budget reporting, the IMF and Greece's 15 partners that share the euro currency rewarded Prime Minister George Papandreou for tough measures including cuts in civil servant's pay.

"I have done and will do everything so the country does not go bankrupt," Papandreou told a nation which now faces years of painful belt-tightening after years of overspending...."

Read more:

http://www.google.com/ho...enIusBgBvWj5WQD9FEU2K02

karanjakinuthia
#324 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 7:22:35 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
In China they have a song that starts with the lyrics: "The East is red; the sun rises."

"Kenyans can expect more involvement through funding and investment in development projects by China, with President Kibaki’s visit to the country, where he invited the Chinese business people to invest in the country.

President Kibaki held talks with officials of China-Africa Development (CAD) Fund who paid him a courtesy call, on Sunday, during which the team, led by the chief executive officer, Mr Chi Jian Xin, informed him on its willingness to partner with private and public companies....."

Read more:

http://www.nation.co.ke/...0/-/cgagoq/-/index.html

guru267
#325 Posted : Monday, May 03, 2010 7:28:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
This Greece default fiasco has been the major inhibitor to the rise in world markets and market sentiments.... I'm glad they've sorted it out with Germany and the IMF both coming on board for the sake of the Euro...




Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
karanjakinuthia
#326 Posted : Tuesday, May 04, 2010 7:27:29 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
The average crude oil prices from during the 1968 to 1980 commodity bull market were:

1968 - $3.18
1969 - $3.32
1970 - $3.39
1971 - $3.60
1972 - $3.60
1973 - $4.75
1974 - $9.35
1975 - $12.21
1976 - $13.10
1977 - $14.40
1978 - $14.95
1979 - $25.10
1980 - $37.42

Of particular interest was October of 1973 when Egypt and Syria launched attacks on Israel. At the onset of the war, Gulf States instituted an oil embargo on countries that supported Israel. Initially, OPEC members were willing to institute a 5% cut and an additional 5% every month until the U.S. buckled. However, President Nixon stood his ground by requesting a $2.2 billion aid to Israel fuelling the anger of Arab countries who instituted a total oil embargo.

Presently crude oil is flirting with $90 a barrel which is a line in the sand for chart technicians. Once breached, the market will seek $104.

"Consumers face a fresh round of fuel cost adjustments as oil marketers announced a review of pump prices, starting Tuesday, on increased crude oil charges.

KenolKobil announced that it will increase prices by Sh2.50 a litre with Total, National Oil Company (Nock) and Shell saying they would follow suit in a move that will push pump charges to Sh95 a litre in Nairobi’s Central Business District (CBD) from the current Sh92.90...."

Read more:

http://www.businessdaily.../-/13bs91e/-/index.html

Scubidu
#327 Posted : Tuesday, May 04, 2010 2:08:04 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Sukuk bonds a comin? wow this market is really becoming developed. What's the best bond to buy now...Maybe KEnGen if you can get it or 8 year IFRB. Interesting part of the BD article.

Underlying assets

A key problem was a collapse in value of underlying assets – primarily real estate investments – which back Sukuk issues.

Islamic bonds are structured as profit-sharing or rental agreements, and their returns are derived from underlying physical assets such as real estate or commodities.

Unlike conventional banking which has a vast array of investment options, Islamic banks are heavily concentrated in real estate placing them at high risk should property values fall as they did during the financial crisis.

Read more:

http://www.businessdaily.../-/rhnqbvz/-/index.html
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
guru267
#328 Posted : Wednesday, May 05, 2010 7:31:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
world markets were set significantly lower thanks to the worries over the systemic effect of the greece bail out...

i now want to see what effect this has on the risky counters and safcom NSE today
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Scubidu
#329 Posted : Wednesday, May 05, 2010 7:54:01 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@guru267. Well the world bank said that the NSE mirrors the Dow Jones and even JSE, so it's likely to reflect on our market. Maybe it's an issue of lag time, some estimate a 3 day lag time.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
guru267
#330 Posted : Wednesday, May 05, 2010 8:21:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Scubidu wrote:
@guru267. Well the world bank said that the NSE mirrors the Dow Jones and even JSE, so it's likely to reflect on our market. Maybe it's an issue of lag time, some estimate a 3 day lag time.


@scubidu the CEO of societe generale bank in france
said markets are hugley over reacting to the worries... if this sentiments are reflected among fund managers then the world markets should head higher again today since these usually start buying like crazy on market dips....

if the Dow Jones and the FTSE close down today i'll be looking to become more risk averse and improve my cash position...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Scubidu
#331 Posted : Wednesday, May 05, 2010 9:29:28 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@guru267. wow, i didn't think u'd respond to movements in international markets so quickly. Is it wise to do that? Seems like way to many variables to factor in to a decision (not including the local factors).

@kk. Remember those US Bonds that CBK bought through the RAMP program, there maybe a good reason for that. Stumbled onto an interesting article about US treasury yields.

http://www.bespokeinvest...pposed-to-be-rising.html
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
karanjakinuthia
#332 Posted : Wednesday, May 05, 2010 4:50:06 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@ Scubidu. The author provides a limited timeline over which to comprehensively analyse.

A long term chart filters noise and brings to the fore the steady uptrend from 1981. Once that line-in-the-sand is broken, look down below.

In the medium term, U.S. Treasuries are set to benefit from safe harbour status as contangion fears plague Euro bonds. Please note the spike high in 2008 as investors abandoned many a market amidst the financial storm.

However, over the long term, the debt tsunami will set course for the U.S. mainland. Debt investors will then seek shelter in stocks, commodities, real-estate, the Aussie, Swissie and Canadian Dollar.

http://www.mrci.com/beta...p;source=/pdf/us.pdf%22

karanjakinuthia
#333 Posted : Wednesday, May 05, 2010 4:53:03 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Gold in recent times has risen on the back of the U.S. Dollar's fall and vice versa; picture a see-saw. The Debt Crisis emanating from Europe has flipped that correlation, gold is rising along with the Dollar. This was the case in the 1931 Currency Crisis when the Dollar was interchangeable to gold at $20.67.

Other assets to have appreciated during that tumultuous period were the U.S. stock markets as a port of safety from debt defaults in both Europe and South America.

"UGANDA on Tuesday opened its first gold refinery, hoping to tap into processing the precious metal from neighbouring producing countries.

The refinery, established by Russian-owned Victoria Gold Star Limited, has a capacity to process 1.2 tonnes of raw gold per month, the company's managing director told Reuters.

Yuri Bogoroditskiy said the company was attracted to Uganda because of its location and relative political stability.

"Uganda is at the centre of the producers of gold: eastern D R Congo, Tanzania, Rwanda and Kenya," Bogoroditskiy said....

Read more:

http://www.newvision.co.ug/D/10/10/718440
young
#334 Posted : Wednesday, May 05, 2010 5:10:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria

Uganda = Oil + Gold ?

Hakuna Matata !!!
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
guru267
#335 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 6:08:01 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Scubidu wrote:
@guru267. wow, i didn't think u'd respond to movements in international markets so quickly. Is it wise to do that? Seems like way to many variables to factor in to a decision (not including the local factors)


@scubidu i didnt say that i was liquidating all my investments but it would be very wise to reduce your exposure to risk at this stage especially since most of us have made some good money in the past year....

The risk of a sovreign debt crisis throughout Europe is extremely high and the problem here is that if any other one country needs to be bailed out we will have an economic crisis worse than the one 2008-2009... all European markets had another disastrous day yesterday with huge selling pressure....

Though some other analysts view this huge sell off as an over reaction since the nature of the Greek debt is very different from the nature of debt of the rest of Europe hence little chance of other countries defaulting...

The Effect on the NSE will not be terrible especially with companies that have limited or no overseas exposure..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
karanjakinuthia
#336 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 7:11:16 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Greece had a choice between a red and blue pill to treat its debt malaise. The red pill has after effects of debt default which equates a swift economic collapse, flight of capital then recovery. The blue pill, a bailout package which includes public sector austerity measures, higher taxes and unemployment; therefore a long protracted depression. It has picked blue.

Consider for a moment, if neither the government nor the private are spending, then who is?

If capital flees Greek stock and debt markets to overseas markets, how will investment flourish?

If both capital expenditure and investment are non-existent, how will the populace obtain employment?

The Euro breached the $1.29 level to the dollar, opening the door to the 1.23 level which was the low in October 2008.

"ATHENS -- Greek protesters set fire to a bank, killing three people, on Wednesday in the most violent reaction to date to the government's austerity plan.

Groups of masked youths hurled petrol bombs, stones and sticks at riot police as nearly 50,000 striking workers and public servants marched to parliament, where a bill dictating pay cuts and tax hikes was due for debate..."

Read more: http://www.financialpost...d=2989213#ixzz0n7t6S4bO

karanjakinuthia
#337 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 7:15:25 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
karanjakinuthia
#338 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 7:28:20 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Markets are intriguing.

The tremors from the financial crisis have migrated as follows:

Sub-prime real estate -> Investment Banks -> Banks -> All Markets -> Municipalities -> States -> Nations -> Debt Markets -> Banks -> ????

"The spectre of counterparty risk, last seen in dramatic form in the wake of the Lehman collapse, is returning to the European banking sector in an early warning sign that some banks may collapse in the wake of the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis.

Banks are now more reluctant to lend to each other than at any point since the problems of Greece first blew up last October, according to analysts at Tullett Prebon and Icap, the interdealer brokers...."

Read more:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/...49a.html?nclick_check=1

guru267
#339 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 12:11:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
karanjakinuthia wrote:
Divest in Europe Now!


@KK very true Europe and all countries exposed to europe...

the NSE has had zero reaction and is still headed up but the JSE is not being spared and i find that very wierd
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
karanjakinuthia
#340 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 1:45:37 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@ Guru267. The NSE topped out on 27th of April at 4289 points but is yet to provide an indication of a further rise or decline.

The JSE is much more correlated to the London Stock Exchange due to a sizeable portion of cross-listings.

Fear is the primary force behind market moves at the moment. The invisible hand is nudging market particants towards ports of safety regardless of long term fundamentals (remember 2008?).

Those that brand the current turmoil as a storm in a tea cup have not read their history books. Sovereign Debt Crises are the big kahuna.

A break in a chain-link is often at the weakest point. Greece is Europe's weak link.

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