Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
|
Liv wrote:maka wrote:maka wrote:KulaRaha wrote:5yr at 12.5%
20yr at 14% undersubscribed
From cytonn;
In line with the Securities Issuance Calendar, the Government issued 2 bonds: a 5-year bond (FXD 3/2016/5) and a reopened 20-year bond (FXD 1/2016/20) looking to raise Kshs 25.0 bn for the purpose of budgetary support. Given (i) the Government is not under pressure to finance the 2016/2017 budget, having raised Kshs 67.4 bn against a pro-rated target of Kshs 53.0 bn, and (ii) the enactment of the Banking (Amendment) Act, 2015 resulting in lower lending rates by commercial banks and preference to lend to the less risky government, we expect downward pressure on interest rates. Therefore, with the secondary market trading at 13.6% and 14.8% for the 5-year and 20-year bond, respectively, we are of the view that investors should bid between 13.25% and 13.80% for the 5-year and between 14.0% and 14.9% for the 20-year bond with more bids towards the latter.
@Maka,
Thanks for the info.
My forecast is a subset of the Cytonn rates, only that their ranges are wider. The basis is the current market yields. That's why I thought they are not that aggressive as you said
5 year 13 - 13.50
20 year 14.30 -14.50
All in all its going to be a very interesting auction so many variables.... possunt quia posse videntur
|