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Stocks full time speculator
newfarer
#1 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 8:11:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2010
Posts: 3,504
Location: Uganda
Suppose I had like 100,000/= and decide to use it to do an informed speculation at the NSE on full time basis i.e just sit at my brokers offices and place a buy order on shares which shows signs of gaining and placing a sell order for shares with signs of losing.I think share price increases and decreases have become too predictable from discussions here(case in point Mumias and CFC).Isn't it possible to make money with such a strategy and become a fulltime speculator over time? Has anyone ever tried this or rather do we have people who live on this.
I.e wake up in the morning go to broker , place a buy or sell order depending on the market, make 2000 or 3000 a day from this, just like marikiti market?
punda amecheka
Jaguar
#2 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 8:18:42 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/7/2007
Posts: 263
Location: humu humu
interesting...100k is peanuts for playing with fire, you need at least 400k. You also don't need to visit your broker, email followed by a phone call is sufficient. Lastly, most people on wazua praise the stocks they have already bought and call the ones they don't have in their portfolio junks. The advice on this forum especially on stocks is 99.99999% biased
VituVingiSana
#3 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 8:28:38 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
You forget T+5 (Prompt T+1) before you can sell...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
newfarer
#4 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 8:35:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2010
Posts: 3,504
Location: Uganda
Jaguar ,agreed 100k may be insufficient but this figure was just an example.
The aim of going to the broker would be to creat a rapport with the broker to ensure the order goes fast and have a first hand information on the price change ,supply and demand on the screen.I'm talking of a person who would wish to become a fulltime speculator(no other job).As he sits at the brokers office he does some internet reasearch /browsing on informative sites like wazua et al.to get the market trend to make an informed decision.Can this work?

@VVS one can work on the Prompt board ,

And then this will be a daily activity hence T+1 will have minimal effect.

The aim will be to cover transaction costs and make some profit.


punda amecheka
Jaguar
#5 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 8:48:58 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/7/2007
Posts: 263
Location: humu humu
@newfarer, the part of sitting at your broker's premises daily really got me laughing..won't work unless you live in the nairobi cbd, otherwise you will spend too much on fare or fuel. You can get accurate demand/supply figures by subscribing to nellydata or mystockslive (mystockslive is the best @1k per month)
2012
#6 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 8:49:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Jaguar wrote:
interesting...100k is peanuts for playing with fire, you need at least 400k


400k? I'd say you need at least 5M to make a living from it. You'd still need to speculate plus do short-term and longterm too. Remember this little piece of advice 'if it was that easy we would all be doing it' you need a lot of experience even experienced investment companies with full time actuaries and trained investors get it wrong. So don't go in expecting it to be a walk in the park.

BBI will solve it
:)
VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 8:59:25 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
Prices & quantities on T+1 are limited...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sheep
#8 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 8:59:25 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
@newfarer,

From the way you have asked the question,dont try it.There is a way you have to be wired to make it.

Plus there is no way you can make it trading daily unless you are an insider.
Just buy and hold and enjoy good night sleep.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
winston
#9 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 9:13:17 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
Been following the T+4(5?) settlement date. My broker deferred my purchase order till my cheque cleared into their account. Surprisingly, previous orders weren't subjected to the same constraint despite being twice the cheque value. My previous broker never subjected me to this.Is this the norm with all brokers? Or is their a new rule at play?
VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 9:27:37 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
@Winston: Chq clearance can be 1-4 days... then buy shares then t+5 before you can sell...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
young
#11 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 9:31:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria

Speculation ?

(a) Sweet Side:- Making a kill in a bull market when you position at a low price.

(b) Sour Side
(i) Buying / Selling is out of investor control so stockbrokers may not be smartenough during buying and selling and you do not have direct access to place order
(ii) Information or corporate actions come too late to public
wheras insiders are privy to priviledged info.

CONCLUSION
(i) I am yet to see a successful speculator that has done that in any african market consistently for 5 years without being bitten
except of course south africa.
(ii) Speculation is more ideal in a market where there is online
real time trading where investors are in abosolute control.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 9:47:44 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
@young - Can I trade stocks in Nigeria online i.e. without e-mailing the broker?

Can I open an account, deposit Naira... and then trade completely online? Similar to the USA or UK?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#13 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 11:09:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@newfarer speculation is no game.. investing for the long term can be done by almost anyone and one can make plenty of money...

speculation is usually done by fund managers because they are given deadlines they must meet with a given perfomance hence they must speculate...

i would suggest you devote at most 25% of your portfolio for speculation especially if you are not too in touch with the technical stuff but have apetite for risk...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
young
#14 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 11:40:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
@Mzee VVS

Please be aware there is NO broker in Nigeria that has a suitable platform to trade online without interaction with the broker by phone or email.

In the whole of Africa, pure online real time facility exists only in South Africa just like what exists in US, UK and Asia.


Be aware the problem is not with the broker per se, but investors having access to the trading engine via the respective brokers platform. The infrastructure and wherewithal are not just there.
CMA etc has a big role to play.

The online stock broker I use in south Africa market just for your info is PSG www.psgonline.co.za
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
haiyaa
#15 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 12:12:56 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 99
Applause Applause Applause@ Young .This is interesting.Looks like people are sitting on wealth of information.

Do they have day trading in South Africa?

and how does one open an account for online trading? do PSG have an office in Kenya? or you can open one online?
How are payments /deposits made into the account (EFT)?

Please give us some more information as many of us would be interested to go beyond our borders




kyt
#16 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 12:31:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
when we have reliable internet fast brokers n day trading, that is when i will speculate.
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
mukiha
#17 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 12:34:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Here is the restriction in the NSE trading rules:

4.1.7 No Member shall:
(i) establish or permit to be established any form of electronic device or system capable of routing orders directly from its clients into the ATS or any part of the ATS.
(ii) connect or cause to be connected to -
(a) The ATS or any part thereof (whether directly or indirectly) any device, equipment or facilities for any purpose whatsoever without the written approval of the Exchange; or
(b) any device, equipment or facilities which have been approved by the Exchange to be connected to ATS or any part thereof, any additional device, equipment or facilities.
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
young
#18 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 12:48:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Mzee Haiyaa,

Since you joined stockskenya in 2007 you should by now know that I am an apostle of investing off shores, that is why I am on this forum. . I live and work in Nigeria

The procedure to invest online for non resident foreigners in any advanced market is always very informative if you go through their respective websites.
For PSG south Africa you can find it in their main web page under FAQ. Just to help you check the link

https://www.psg-online.c...ReadContent.aspx?id=110

Yes day trading is possible in south african market but I do not participate. I only only speculate on gold stocks (average trade 3 to 4 times a year) and this is mostly driven by gold price in the world spot market. So my idea of speculation is like well researched 3 times trade in a year and my aerage swing is 15%.

In general be aware of the following info about my overseas brokers :-

(A) African Markets where I invest long term :-

Nigeria :- www.afrinvestwa.com
Ghana := www.databankgroup.com
Kenya :- www.fib.co.ke
Botswana:- www.stockbrokers-botswana.com

In View :- Uganda market thru Crane Stockbrokers
(Do not quite remember the website now)

(B) SOUTH AFRICA & ADVANCED MARKET WHERE I SPECULATE (AVERAGE 3 or 4 BUY / SALE) PER YEAR)

USA:- www.tdameritrade.com
Hong Kong/China:- www.kgieworld.com
Singapore:- www.dbsvickers.com
Thailand:= www.kgieworld.co.th
Australia :-www.commsec.com.au
Sout Africa :- www.psgonline.co.za


Be aware to fund your account or receive proceeds from investment you need to have opened a convertible currency denominated account (USD, Sterling Euro) in your country and at your request your broker will send you the wiring (fund transfer) instructions to fund your account.
To receive funds you will get this info from your local bank to receive proceeds.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
2012
#19 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 1:10:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
i would suggest you devote at most 25% of your portfolio for speculation especially if you are not too in touch with the technical stuff but have apetite for risk...


It's like you read from my portfolio. 25% is on speculation. Sell after 30% gain or 10% drop. But must be offloaded within 60 days. What's your system?

BBI will solve it
:)
Gatheuzi
#20 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 1:30:33 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
@ newfarer

Your strategy is similar to @stocksmaster. Basically instead of making it a daily activity you may consider restricting the number of trades in a year to say 4 - 6. Remember the commissions of about 2% on each trade. So if you are to sell and then buy again your broker will get 4% on the trade. Of course this means you must make more than that to end up in the positive.
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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