Wazua
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Thoughts on TPS Serena
Rank: New-farer Joined: 4/11/2016 Posts: 30 Location: Nairobi
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I love how the market brings out divergent thoughts. One man's meat is another man's poison. Well I am buying loads of this one every month till i hit my maximum exposure. It is actually one of the stocks that I am really confident in, I wouldn't loose sleep even when it goes to single digits as some may prophesy.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:kimanimsc wrote:CourtesyHY 2016 Sales 2.656219b vs. 2.671950b -0.589% Profit before interest, depreciation and taxation 170.411m vs. 182.432m -6.589% Net interest cost [54.781m] vs. [108.005m] -49.279% Depreciation on property, plant and equipment [189.786m] vs. [213.881m] -11.266% Loss before income tax [74.156m] vs. [139.454m] -46.824% Loss after taxation [57.627m] vs. [97.284m] -40.764% Loss attributable to equity holders of the company [77.593m] vs. [112.010m] -30.727% EPS [0.43] vs. [0.61] -29.508% Currency translation differences [56.461m] vs. [358.713m] -84.260% Equity 9.571263b vs. 9.956492b -3.869% Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 12.647m vs. [318.273m] +103.974% This company has had a rough time, the sector is brutal, so too have the shareholders. Lets see how peak season turns out. But at 18 its going at a throw away price. Management is pushing for a rebound towards Q4 2016. with july - october peak season key to this. @Aguytrying ftgh which posted better results is trading at 4 bob why recommend people to throw away 18 bob at this loss making entity? A share can be cheap at 100 and expensive at 10 bob. you know this right? @Aguytrying my main point was I wouldn't be advising anyone to buy into a company that has been making losses for over 10 straight quarters while there are better alternatives in the same market. Buying based on hope most times turns out to be a deadly bullet to your portfolio, that's why I personally avoid such companies *also note I chose ftgh not because it looks cheap but rather based on your bear wish list and the fact that it posted better half results and is more attractive fundamentally than TPS. I hope this is now clear enough to get a response to my original question in red above. Thanks I see. First it hasn't made losses in 10 straight quarters. I'm not advising anyone to buy this stock, im just saying its cheap at the current price. The company has been beaten down by the ebola epidemic, alshabaab. which led to travel advisories causing decreased profits. ebola is contained, so is alshabaab. travel advisories lifted. This is what you call buying a rebound. The current valuation is so low. were the company able to resume its normal profit levels it would be in the 40's. When tourism was good the EPS was 3.0- 4.0. But this is only for the patient long term investors. disclaimer. This is not a buy recommendation. I have TPSE shares This is not a buy recommendation. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,371 Location: Nairobi
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mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:kimanimsc wrote:CourtesyHY 2016 Sales 2.656219b vs. 2.671950b -0.589% Profit before interest, depreciation and taxation 170.411m vs. 182.432m -6.589% Net interest cost [54.781m] vs. [108.005m] -49.279% Depreciation on property, plant and equipment [189.786m] vs. [213.881m] -11.266% Loss before income tax [74.156m] vs. [139.454m] -46.824% Loss after taxation [57.627m] vs. [97.284m] -40.764% Loss attributable to equity holders of the company [77.593m] vs. [112.010m] -30.727% EPS [0.43] vs. [0.61] -29.508% Currency translation differences [56.461m] vs. [358.713m] -84.260% Equity 9.571263b vs. 9.956492b -3.869% Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 12.647m vs. [318.273m] +103.974% This company has had a rough time, the sector is brutal, so too have the shareholders. Lets see how peak season turns out. But at 18 its going at a throw away price. Management is pushing for a rebound towards Q4 2016. with july - october peak season key to this. @Aguytrying ftgh which posted better results is trading at 4 bob why recommend people to throw away 18 bob at this loss making entity? A share can be cheap at 100 and expensive at 10 bob. you know this right? @Aguytrying my main point was I wouldn't be advising anyone to buy into a company that has been making losses for over 10 straight quarters while there are better alternatives in the same market. Buying based on hope most times turns out to be a deadly bullet to your portfolio, that's why I personally avoid such companies *also note I chose ftgh not because it looks cheap but rather based on your bear wish list and the fact that it posted better half results and is more attractive fundamentally than TPS. I hope this is now clear enough to get a response to my original question in red above. Thanks @mkatenusu - Please share Q by Q PAT numbers. I'll even take H by H numbers for 10 Qs [2.5 years]. Thanks. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Aguytrying wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:kimanimsc wrote:CourtesyHY 2016 Sales 2.656219b vs. 2.671950b -0.589% Profit before interest, depreciation and taxation 170.411m vs. 182.432m -6.589% Net interest cost [54.781m] vs. [108.005m] -49.279% Depreciation on property, plant and equipment [189.786m] vs. [213.881m] -11.266% Loss before income tax [74.156m] vs. [139.454m] -46.824% Loss after taxation [57.627m] vs. [97.284m] -40.764% Loss attributable to equity holders of the company [77.593m] vs. [112.010m] -30.727% EPS [0.43] vs. [0.61] -29.508% Currency translation differences [56.461m] vs. [358.713m] -84.260% Equity 9.571263b vs. 9.956492b -3.869% Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 12.647m vs. [318.273m] +103.974% This company has had a rough time, the sector is brutal, so too have the shareholders. Lets see how peak season turns out. But at 18 its going at a throw away price. Management is pushing for a rebound towards Q4 2016. with july - october peak season key to this. @Aguytrying ftgh which posted better results is trading at 4 bob why recommend people to throw away 18 bob at this loss making entity? A share can be cheap at 100 and expensive at 10 bob. you know this right? @Aguytrying my main point was I wouldn't be advising anyone to buy into a company that has been making losses for over 10 straight quarters while there are better alternatives in the same market. Buying based on hope most times turns out to be a deadly bullet to your portfolio, that's why I personally avoid such companies *also note I chose ftgh not because it looks cheap but rather based on your bear wish list and the fact that it posted better half results and is more attractive fundamentally than TPS. I hope this is now clear enough to get a response to my original question in red above. Thanks I see. First it hasn't made losses in 10 straight quarters. I'm not advising anyone to buy this stock, im just saying its cheap at the current price. The company has been beaten down by the ebola epidemic, alshabaab. which led to travel advisories causing decreased profits. ebola is contained, so is alshabaab. travel advisories lifted. This is what you call buying a rebound. The current valuation is so low. were the company able to resume its normal profit levels it would be in the 40's. When tourism was good the EPS was 3.0- 4.0. But this is only for the patient long term investors. disclaimer. This is not a buy recommendation. I have TPSE shares This is not a buy recommendation. The Hotels are ok. Lodges breeding  Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/26/2015 Posts: 151
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Aguytrying wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:kimanimsc wrote:CourtesyHY 2016 Sales 2.656219b vs. 2.671950b -0.589% Profit before interest, depreciation and taxation 170.411m vs. 182.432m -6.589% Net interest cost [54.781m] vs. [108.005m] -49.279% Depreciation on property, plant and equipment [189.786m] vs. [213.881m] -11.266% Loss before income tax [74.156m] vs. [139.454m] -46.824% Loss after taxation [57.627m] vs. [97.284m] -40.764% Loss attributable to equity holders of the company [77.593m] vs. [112.010m] -30.727% EPS [0.43] vs. [0.61] -29.508% Currency translation differences [56.461m] vs. [358.713m] -84.260% Equity 9.571263b vs. 9.956492b -3.869% Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 12.647m vs. [318.273m] +103.974% This company has had a rough time, the sector is brutal, so too have the shareholders. Lets see how peak season turns out. But at 18 its going at a throw away price. Management is pushing for a rebound towards Q4 2016. with july - october peak season key to this. @Aguytrying ftgh which posted better results is trading at 4 bob why recommend people to throw away 18 bob at this loss making entity? A share can be cheap at 100 and expensive at 10 bob. you know this right? @Aguytrying my main point was I wouldn't be advising anyone to buy into a company that has been making losses for over 10 straight quarters while there are better alternatives in the same market. Buying based on hope most times turns out to be a deadly bullet to your portfolio, that's why I personally avoid such companies *also note I chose ftgh not because it looks cheap but rather based on your bear wish list and the fact that it posted better half results and is more attractive fundamentally than TPS. I hope this is now clear enough to get a response to my original question in red above. Thanks I see. First it hasn't made losses in 10 straight quarters. I'm not advising anyone to buy this stock, im just saying its cheap at the current price. The company has been beaten down by the ebola epidemic, alshabaab. which led to travel advisories causing decreased profits. ebola is contained, so is alshabaab. travel advisories lifted. This is what you call buying a rebound. The current valuation is so low. were the company able to resume its normal profit levels it would be in the 40's. When tourism was good the EPS was 3.0- 4.0. But this is only for the patient long term investors. disclaimer. This is not a buy recommendation. I have TPSE shares This is not a buy recommendation. This stock requires balls of steel. Got in at 35 a year ago. Sold half of it when the price dropped by 10%. Sold off the remaining half at 20 this year. I had to,with all the sleepless nights. Looking to reenter at sub 18. I'm waiting to see how business picks up in the final half of the year. It's a good dividend stock. With return to profitability, dividend payout would be 1.35 as per historical data. That's 7.5%yield.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/30/2016 Posts: 332 Location: Kayole
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VituVingiSana wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:kimanimsc wrote:CourtesyHY 2016 Sales 2.656219b vs. 2.671950b -0.589% Profit before interest, depreciation and taxation 170.411m vs. 182.432m -6.589% Net interest cost [54.781m] vs. [108.005m] -49.279% Depreciation on property, plant and equipment [189.786m] vs. [213.881m] -11.266% Loss before income tax [74.156m] vs. [139.454m] -46.824% Loss after taxation [57.627m] vs. [97.284m] -40.764% Loss attributable to equity holders of the company [77.593m] vs. [112.010m] -30.727% EPS [0.43] vs. [0.61] -29.508% Currency translation differences [56.461m] vs. [358.713m] -84.260% Equity 9.571263b vs. 9.956492b -3.869% Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 12.647m vs. [318.273m] +103.974% This company has had a rough time, the sector is brutal, so too have the shareholders. Lets see how peak season turns out. But at 18 its going at a throw away price. Management is pushing for a rebound towards Q4 2016. with july - october peak season key to this. @Aguytrying ftgh which posted better results is trading at 4 bob why recommend people to throw away 18 bob at this loss making entity? A share can be cheap at 100 and expensive at 10 bob. you know this right? @Aguytrying my main point was I wouldn't be advising anyone to buy into a company that has been making losses for over 10 straight quarters while there are better alternatives in the same market. Buying based on hope most times turns out to be a deadly bullet to your portfolio, that's why I personally avoid such companies *also note I chose ftgh not because it looks cheap but rather based on your bear wish list and the fact that it posted better half results and is more attractive fundamentally than TPS. I hope this is now clear enough to get a response to my original question in red above. Thanks @mkatenusu - Please share Q by Q PAT numbers. I'll even take H by H numbers for 10 Qs [2.5 years]. Thanks. @VVS the last good year they had was 2013, ever since I consider their results to be a disgrace/joke. This second half will make up 2 more bad quarters to get 8 straight loss quarters and 12 straight disappointing quarters for any serious investor to think of parting his cash with. I would restate my earlier assertion as ...that has been struggling severely for over 10 straight quarters with losses being the greatest common divisor...A look at EPS: 1H 2013 0.69 FY 2013 3.45 1H 2014 0.13 FY 2014 1.35 1H 2015 (0.61) FY 2015 (1.63) 1H 2016 (0.43) FY 2016 (1.39) (logarithmically extrapolated) KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/30/2016 Posts: 332 Location: Kayole
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Aguytrying wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:kimanimsc wrote:CourtesyHY 2016 Sales 2.656219b vs. 2.671950b -0.589% Profit before interest, depreciation and taxation 170.411m vs. 182.432m -6.589% Net interest cost [54.781m] vs. [108.005m] -49.279% Depreciation on property, plant and equipment [189.786m] vs. [213.881m] -11.266% Loss before income tax [74.156m] vs. [139.454m] -46.824% Loss after taxation [57.627m] vs. [97.284m] -40.764% Loss attributable to equity holders of the company [77.593m] vs. [112.010m] -30.727% EPS [0.43] vs. [0.61] -29.508% Currency translation differences [56.461m] vs. [358.713m] -84.260% Equity 9.571263b vs. 9.956492b -3.869% Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 12.647m vs. [318.273m] +103.974% This company has had a rough time, the sector is brutal, so too have the shareholders. Lets see how peak season turns out. But at 18 its going at a throw away price. Management is pushing for a rebound towards Q4 2016. with july - october peak season key to this. @Aguytrying ftgh which posted better results is trading at 4 bob why recommend people to throw away 18 bob at this loss making entity? A share can be cheap at 100 and expensive at 10 bob. you know this right? @Aguytrying my main point was I wouldn't be advising anyone to buy into a company that has been making losses for over 10 straight quarters while there are better alternatives in the same market. Buying based on hope most times turns out to be a deadly bullet to your portfolio, that's why I personally avoid such companies *also note I chose ftgh not because it looks cheap but rather based on your bear wish list and the fact that it posted better half results and is more attractive fundamentally than TPS. I hope this is now clear enough to get a response to my original question in red above. Thanks I see. First it hasn't made losses in 10 straight quarters. I'm not advising anyone to buy this stock, im just saying its cheap at the current price. The company has been beaten down by the ebola epidemic, alshabaab. which led to travel advisories causing decreased profits. ebola is contained, so is alshabaab. travel advisories lifted. This is what you call buying a rebound. The current valuation is so low. were the company able to resume its normal profit levels it would be in the 40's. When tourism was good the EPS was 3.0- 4.0.But this is only for the patient long term investors. disclaimer. This is not a buy recommendation. I have TPSE shares This is not a buy recommendation. *it's important you noted that disclaimer clearly as some wazuans tend to buy on hearsay and get burnt easily. Buying based on good historical events is no guarantee for future performance. That's buying hope. I look at cold hard facts(financials). In the words of Kevin O'Leary, I think of my money as foot soldiers who should make me richer when I go to sleep than when I woke up. This one by the time you wait your cash has lost value to inflation and a severely beaten down share price. All the best if this turns out to be a wise investment I will gladly accept to have refused to board this bus(boda boda) KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/30/2016 Posts: 332 Location: Kayole
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MadDoc wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:kimanimsc wrote:CourtesyHY 2016 Sales 2.656219b vs. 2.671950b -0.589% Profit before interest, depreciation and taxation 170.411m vs. 182.432m -6.589% Net interest cost [54.781m] vs. [108.005m] -49.279% Depreciation on property, plant and equipment [189.786m] vs. [213.881m] -11.266% Loss before income tax [74.156m] vs. [139.454m] -46.824% Loss after taxation [57.627m] vs. [97.284m] -40.764% Loss attributable to equity holders of the company [77.593m] vs. [112.010m] -30.727% EPS [0.43] vs. [0.61] -29.508% Currency translation differences [56.461m] vs. [358.713m] -84.260% Equity 9.571263b vs. 9.956492b -3.869% Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 12.647m vs. [318.273m] +103.974% This company has had a rough time, the sector is brutal, so too have the shareholders. Lets see how peak season turns out. But at 18 its going at a throw away price. Management is pushing for a rebound towards Q4 2016. with july - october peak season key to this. @Aguytrying ftgh which posted better results is trading at 4 bob why recommend people to throw away 18 bob at this loss making entity? A share can be cheap at 100 and expensive at 10 bob. you know this right? @Aguytrying my main point was I wouldn't be advising anyone to buy into a company that has been making losses for over 10 straight quarters while there are better alternatives in the same market. Buying based on hope most times turns out to be a deadly bullet to your portfolio, that's why I personally avoid such companies *also note I chose ftgh not because it looks cheap but rather based on your bear wish list and the fact that it posted better half results and is more attractive fundamentally than TPS. I hope this is now clear enough to get a response to my original question in red above. Thanks I see. First it hasn't made losses in 10 straight quarters. I'm not advising anyone to buy this stock, im just saying its cheap at the current price. The company has been beaten down by the ebola epidemic, alshabaab. which led to travel advisories causing decreased profits. ebola is contained, so is alshabaab. travel advisories lifted. This is what you call buying a rebound. The current valuation is so low. were the company able to resume its normal profit levels it would be in the 40's. When tourism was good the EPS was 3.0- 4.0. But this is only for the patient long term investors. disclaimer. This is not a buy recommendation. I have TPSE shares This is not a buy recommendation. This stock requires balls of steel. Got in at 35 a year ago. Sold half of it when the price dropped by 10%. Sold off the remaining half at 20 this year. I had to,with all the sleepless nights. Looking to reenter at sub 18. I'm waiting to see how business picks up in the final half of the year. It's a good dividend stock. With return to profitability, dividend payout would be 1.35 as per historical data. That's 7.5%yield. @MadDoc I see the old adage 'Once bitten, twice shy' does not apply to you. KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/26/2015 Posts: 151
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mkate_nusu wrote:MadDoc wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:kimanimsc wrote:CourtesyHY 2016 Sales 2.656219b vs. 2.671950b -0.589% Profit before interest, depreciation and taxation 170.411m vs. 182.432m -6.589% Net interest cost [54.781m] vs. [108.005m] -49.279% Depreciation on property, plant and equipment [189.786m] vs. [213.881m] -11.266% Loss before income tax [74.156m] vs. [139.454m] -46.824% Loss after taxation [57.627m] vs. [97.284m] -40.764% Loss attributable to equity holders of the company [77.593m] vs. [112.010m] -30.727% EPS [0.43] vs. [0.61] -29.508% Currency translation differences [56.461m] vs. [358.713m] -84.260% Equity 9.571263b vs. 9.956492b -3.869% Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 12.647m vs. [318.273m] +103.974% This company has had a rough time, the sector is brutal, so too have the shareholders. Lets see how peak season turns out. But at 18 its going at a throw away price. Management is pushing for a rebound towards Q4 2016. with july - october peak season key to this. @Aguytrying ftgh which posted better results is trading at 4 bob why recommend people to throw away 18 bob at this loss making entity? A share can be cheap at 100 and expensive at 10 bob. you know this right? @Aguytrying my main point was I wouldn't be advising anyone to buy into a company that has been making losses for over 10 straight quarters while there are better alternatives in the same market. Buying based on hope most times turns out to be a deadly bullet to your portfolio, that's why I personally avoid such companies *also note I chose ftgh not because it looks cheap but rather based on your bear wish list and the fact that it posted better half results and is more attractive fundamentally than TPS. I hope this is now clear enough to get a response to my original question in red above. Thanks I see. First it hasn't made losses in 10 straight quarters. I'm not advising anyone to buy this stock, im just saying its cheap at the current price. The company has been beaten down by the ebola epidemic, alshabaab. which led to travel advisories causing decreased profits. ebola is contained, so is alshabaab. travel advisories lifted. This is what you call buying a rebound. The current valuation is so low. were the company able to resume its normal profit levels it would be in the 40's. When tourism was good the EPS was 3.0- 4.0. But this is only for the patient long term investors. disclaimer. This is not a buy recommendation. I have TPSE shares This is not a buy recommendation. This stock requires balls of steel. Got in at 35 a year ago. Sold half of it when the price dropped by 10%. Sold off the remaining half at 20 this year. I had to,with all the sleepless nights. Looking to reenter at sub 18. I'm waiting to see how business picks up in the final half of the year. It's a good dividend stock. With return to profitability, dividend payout would be 1.35 as per historical data. That's 7.5%yield. @MadDoc I see the old adage 'Once bitten, twice shy' does not apply to you. I'm not that impetuous. For the loss I made , I had an even better lesson. The entry price was wrong. I should have foreseen the drop with the downturn in tourism business. That's why this time, I'm waiting for it to pick up. They managed to reduce the losses in HY2016. They'd taken a USD loan for refurbishment of their existing hotels. The dollar has been stable so far. They've done the upgrades. The recent conferences could be a boon for the hotel industry. BUT, My decision to reenter will be dependent on FY results.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,371 Location: Nairobi
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@Aguy - I am increasing my position slowly. Are you? I like their management over the years even during tough times. Scarce offers at 17 though. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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