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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:whiteowl wrote:I have a feeling the downtrend will resume next week. The index is quite oversold, I expect November to be a rebound month. Infact I hope the bounce holds until Q2 2016, then we get the proper selloff to test 2011 lows. This is in order to confirm if that low was solid or not. A bull that starts from that low will be awesome if the bulls are to blow away the NSE20 6161 all time high barrier. @whiteowl I hope you are alive and well as the bear claws get powerful. We had this discussion back in November 2015.
NSE20 is currently testing the 2011 lows (3103) as per expectation as the sell off flash hit 3123. Was this low solid or not? That's what we're bound to know in coming weeks. The volume spike is fantastic since it's larger than the spike back in 2011.
If the market bases out at this level and restarts the bullish run from here that will be an awesome double bottom! #Respect. Nice call. Though the trigger seems to the "Banking Amendment" which was unexpected. What's your next call? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:@vvs, do you see the banking consolidation I have been seeing? A number of small fish will be swallowed. Post 1680 back in April 2016.
The consolidation conditions have now been triggered. Tier 3 and 4 banks will either crash out or get bought. Crashing out will of course be the worst outcome as this will burn the credit system. Will we see hammered (forced) consolidations?
True. You did call that. I believe the "Banking Amendment" has changed the game. I think Tier 4 banks might face headwinds but the Tier 3 banks will survive. Will we see more consolidations like I&M + Giro? Chase is likely to be bought out by a larger bank possibly KCB. Imperial is likely to be picked up by NIC. Could DTB finally absorb Habib Bank Kenya (a branch of Habib Pakistan) which is quite strong and has a strong parent bank? [The ultimate owners are the same for both banks] I support the CBK Governor's view that banks should consolidate "naturally" and there is scope for niche banks rather than the "universal banking" forced on the banks. Furthermore, Capital Adequacy AND Corporate Governance are more meaningful than size. Take Habib Bank, Citibank, BoA, etc. They may be smaller [operations, branches, balance sheet] but they are solid banks. As a depositor, I would go to them over some banks I will not name lest I get flamed. Interesting times. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:@vvs, do you see the banking consolidation I have been seeing? A number of small fish will be swallowed. Post 1680 back in April 2016.
The consolidation conditions have now been triggered. Tier 3 and 4 banks will either crash out or get bought. Crashing out will of course be the worst outcome as this will burn the credit system. Will we see hammered (forced) consolidations?
True. You did call that. I believe the "Banking Amendment" has changed the game. I think Tier 4 banks might face headwinds but the Tier 3 banks will survive. Will we see more consolidations like I&M + Giro? Chase is likely to be bought out by a larger bank possibly KCB. Imperial is likely to be picked up by NIC. Could DTB finally absorb Habib Bank Kenya (a branch of Habib Pakistan) which is quite strong and has a strong parent bank? [The ultimate owners are the same for both banks] I support the CBK Governor's view that banks should consolidate "naturally" and there is scope for niche banks rather than the "universal banking" forced on the banks. Furthermore, Capital Adequacy AND Corporate Governance are more meaningful than size. Take Habib Bank, Citibank, BoA, etc. They may be smaller [operations, branches, balance sheet] but they are solid banks. As a depositor, I would go to them over some banks I will not name lest I get flamed. Interesting times. wide berth its. last season DSL screwed me big time. so, now who is next to take us sub 3000. this is purely nukes attack on NSE and so is it tym to rob a bank? ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:whiteowl wrote:I have a feeling the downtrend will resume next week. The index is quite oversold, I expect November to be a rebound month. Infact I hope the bounce holds until Q2 2016, then we get the proper selloff to test 2011 lows. This is in order to confirm if that low was solid or not. A bull that starts from that low will be awesome if the bulls are to blow away the NSE20 6161 all time high barrier. @whiteowl I hope you are alive and well as the bear claws get powerful. We had this discussion back in November 2015.
NSE20 is currently testing the 2011 lows (3103) as per expectation as the sell off flash hit 3123. Was this low solid or not? That's what we're bound to know in coming weeks. The volume spike is fantastic since it's larger than the spike back in 2011.
If the market bases out at this level and restarts the bullish run from here that will be an awesome double bottom! #Respect. Nice call. Though the trigger seems to the "Banking Amendment" which was unexpected. What's your next call? Most of the TA fans expect further downside, but I'm of the opposite view that the market may base out and form a solid double bottom. The above analysis had also factored in the unpopular rate cap, which I discussed again click here back in April 2016. The only outlier that will negate the double bottom scenario is if the US Fed bank hikes their rate more than expected. That would hit emerging market harder. But should the sovereign debt crisis trigger (likely), I foresee a crazy stampede into quality equities across the global! This is why the likes of apple, google etc are getting bid beyond reason! At the NSE, mpesa bank is displaying similar behaviour. The trick will be to ID those NSE counters that will likely get a bazooka bid when such an event triggers. Finally, FTSE 100 is coiling post Brexit and ready for an explosive move higher. Will this pull along FTSE NSE KE...?$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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@hisah - Let me mull over what you have said. I will have some questions for you. Thank you. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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hisah wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:whiteowl wrote:I have a feeling the downtrend will resume next week. The index is quite oversold, I expect November to be a rebound month. Infact I hope the bounce holds until Q2 2016, then we get the proper selloff to test 2011 lows. This is in order to confirm if that low was solid or not. A bull that starts from that low will be awesome if the bulls are to blow away the NSE20 6161 all time high barrier. @whiteowl I hope you are alive and well as the bear claws get powerful. We had this discussion back in November 2015.
NSE20 is currently testing the 2011 lows (3103) as per expectation as the sell off flash hit 3123. Was this low solid or not? That's what we're bound to know in coming weeks. The volume spike is fantastic since it's larger than the spike back in 2011.
If the market bases out at this level and restarts the bullish run from here that will be an awesome double bottom! #Respect. Nice call. Though the trigger seems to the "Banking Amendment" which was unexpected. What's your next call? Most of the TA fans expect further downside, but I'm of the opposite view that the market may base out and form a solid double bottom. The above analysis had also factored in the unpopular rate cap, which I discussed again click here back in April 2016. The only outlier that will negate the double bottom scenario is if the US Fed bank hikes their rate more than expected. That would hit emerging market harder. But should the sovereign debt crisis trigger (likely), I foresee a crazy stampede into quality equities across the global! This is why the likes of apple, google etc are getting bid beyond reason! At the NSE, mpesa bank is displaying similar behaviour. The trick will be to ID those NSE counters that will likely get a bazooka bid when such an event triggers. Finally, FTSE 100 is coiling post Brexit and ready for an explosive move higher. Will this pull along FTSE NSE KE...? well set n stated. but crucial to note n ask. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,597
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hisah wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:whiteowl wrote:I have a feeling the downtrend will resume next week. The index is quite oversold, I expect November to be a rebound month. Infact I hope the bounce holds until Q2 2016, then we get the proper selloff to test 2011 lows. This is in order to confirm if that low was solid or not. A bull that starts from that low will be awesome if the bulls are to blow away the NSE20 6161 all time high barrier. @whiteowl I hope you are alive and well as the bear claws get powerful. We had this discussion back in November 2015.
NSE20 is currently testing the 2011 lows (3103) as per expectation as the sell off flash hit 3123. Was this low solid or not? That's what we're bound to know in coming weeks. The volume spike is fantastic since it's larger than the spike back in 2011.
If the market bases out at this level and restarts the bullish run from here that will be an awesome double bottom! #Respect. Nice call. Though the trigger seems to the "Banking Amendment" which was unexpected. What's your next call? Most of the TA fans expect further downside, but I'm of the opposite view that the market may base out and form a solid double bottom. The above analysis had also factored in the unpopular rate cap, which I discussed again click here back in April 2016. The only outlier that will negate the double bottom scenario is if the US Fed bank hikes their rate more than expected. That would hit emerging market harder. But should the sovereign debt crisis trigger (likely), I foresee a crazy stampede into quality equities across the global! This is why the likes of apple, google etc are getting bid beyond reason! At the NSE, mpesa bank is displaying similar behaviour. The trick will be to ID those NSE counters that will likely get a bazooka bid when such an event triggers. Finally, FTSE 100 is coiling post Brexit and ready for an explosive move higher. Will this pull along FTSE NSE KE...? I'm struggling to see a double bottom here. There was no panic buying after the rate cap even the gaps were not filled. This feels more like a relief rally. One more sharp down movement to around 2500 is what the market needs to convince the treasury bureaucrats to start fiscal consolidation. CBK monetary tools are messed up by the rate caps so I don't expect loosening. A china debt crisis would be welcome to stop us going beyond 60% GDP debt ratio. Anyway still yet to resume my trading desk. Will look at your double bottom theory in detail.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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For TA Fans, NSE20 is currently testing the monthly support clusters below. The furthest point is 12 years ago. 3157 - January 2004 3175 - February 2004 3158 - April 2004 3098 - January 2005 3126 - March 2005 3198 - January 2009 3102 - August 2009 3189 - October 2009 3155 - November 2011 Viewing the market like a machine  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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hisah wrote:For TA Fans, NSE20 is currently testing the monthly support clusters below. The furthest point is 12 years ago. 3157 - January 2004 3175 - February 2004 3158 - April 2004 3098 - January 2005 3126 - March 2005 3198 - January 2009 3102 - August 2009 3189 - October 2009 3155 - November 2011 Viewing the market like a machine were 06-07-08yrs not necessary to make ur crucial point or out of range data? ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:For TA Fans, NSE20 is currently testing the monthly support clusters below. The furthest point is 12 years ago. 3157 - January 2004 3175 - February 2004 3158 - April 2004 3098 - January 2005 3126 - March 2005 3198 - January 2009 3102 - August 2009 3189 - October 2009 3155 - November 2011 Viewing the market like a machine If we get to 2005 levels that would be a nightmare  "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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murchr wrote:hisah wrote:For TA Fans, NSE20 is currently testing the monthly support clusters below. The furthest point is 12 years ago. 3157 - January 2004 3175 - February 2004 3158 - April 2004 3098 - January 2005 3126 - March 2005 3198 - January 2009 3102 - August 2009 3189 - October 2009 3155 - November 2011 Viewing the market like a machine If we get to 2005 levels that would be a nightmare lastly the bull was seen with a brocken leg supported with sticks "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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The pessimism towards the NSE has increased, most believe it can only go lower. the market goes opposite to what the crowd believes The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:whiteowl wrote:I have a feeling the downtrend will resume next week. The index is quite oversold, I expect November to be a rebound month. Infact I hope the bounce holds until Q2 2016, then we get the proper selloff to test 2011 lows. This is in order to confirm if that low was solid or not. A bull that starts from that low will be awesome if the bulls are to blow away the NSE20 6161 all time high barrier. @whiteowl I hope you are alive and well as the bear claws get powerful. We had this discussion back in November 2015.
NSE20 is currently testing the 2011 lows (3103) as per expectation as the sell off flash hit 3123. Was this low solid or not? That's what we're bound to know in coming weeks. The volume spike is fantastic since it's larger than the spike back in 2011.
If the market bases out at this level and restarts the bullish run from here that will be an awesome double bottom! If you're not a prophet you're the closest we have in wazua. Going through the links above for last year, it's amazing. Pinning for that double bottom!! Remember you asked " I'm i the only crazy one to short KE banks? " then we didn't really see, that's a 40% haircut since then. Even without the rate cup bank stocks had sagged significantly . How do you do it. Clap clap π The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Between June 2009-Sep 2013 Equity bank exchange 2B shares Between June 2015 and Sep 2016 Equity has exchanged 1.3B shares with the last two months doing 240M shares
βThe pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.β
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:whiteowl wrote:I have a feeling the downtrend will resume next week. The index is quite oversold, I expect November to be a rebound month. Infact I hope the bounce holds until Q2 2016, then we get the proper selloff to test 2011 lows. This is in order to confirm if that low was solid or not. A bull that starts from that low will be awesome if the bulls are to blow away the NSE20 6161 all time high barrier. @whiteowl I hope you are alive and well as the bear claws get powerful. We had this discussion back in November 2015.
NSE20 is currently testing the 2011 lows (3103) as per expectation as the sell off flash hit 3123. Was this low solid or not? That's what we're bound to know in coming weeks. The volume spike is fantastic since it's larger than the spike back in 2011.
If the market bases out at this level and restarts the bullish run from here that will be an awesome double bottom! If you're not a prophet you're the closest we have in wazua. Going through the links above for last year, it's amazing. Pinning for that double bottom!! Remember you asked " I'm i the only crazy one to short KE banks? " then we didn't really see, that's a 40% haircut since then. Even without the rate cup bank stocks had sagged significantly . How do you do it. Clap clap π Hisah is BAD..I have just learnt you can do double bottom over longer spans of time This guy analysed the disconnect between treasury and CBK and the growing pessimism on banks and predicted regulation of banks to curb the negative social mood..I cant dig the thread Negative social mood leads to populist politics.
βThe pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.β
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Unlike most here (and that is usually the case with Elliott Waves i.e contrarianism), I expect a much bigger fall in the NSE 20 share index. You see, some people are still not convinced of the BIG BEAR at hand. That's why people are calling for some bottom soon! The point of recognition for most guys is coming soon. This is NOT a time to indulge in ANY stocks, most eespecially SAFARICOM. The coming dividend is fooling people. You should balance between the expected dividend and the potential capital LOSS on the stock. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,597
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Reading Smart Company today Insurance companies change tact and abandon NSE stocks, 2 weeks back the pension schemes were moving to fixed income. Who is buying the shares apart from the hot money foreigners?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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mnandii wrote:Unlike most here (and that is usually the case with Elliott Waves i.e contrarianism), I expect a much bigger fall in the NSE 20 share index. You see, some people are still not convinced of the BIG BEAR at hand. That's why people are calling for some bottom soon! The point of recognition for most guys is coming soon. This is NOT a time to indulge in ANY stocks, most eespecially SAFARICOM. The coming dividend is fooling people. You should balance between the expected dividend and the potential capital LOSS on the stock.  Tell them now John 5:17 But Jesus replied, βMy Father is always working, and so am I.β
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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wukan wrote:Reading Smart Company today Insurance companies change tact and abandon NSE stocks, 2 weeks back the pension schemes were moving to fixed income. Who is buying the shares apart from the hot money foreigners? We are greedy (sensibly so) when others are fearful - Warren Buffett Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Metasploit wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:whiteowl wrote:I have a feeling the downtrend will resume next week. The index is quite oversold, I expect November to be a rebound month. Infact I hope the bounce holds until Q2 2016, then we get the proper selloff to test 2011 lows. This is in order to confirm if that low was solid or not. A bull that starts from that low will be awesome if the bulls are to blow away the NSE20 6161 all time high barrier. @whiteowl I hope you are alive and well as the bear claws get powerful. We had this discussion back in November 2015.
NSE20 is currently testing the 2011 lows (3103) as per expectation as the sell off flash hit 3123. Was this low solid or not? That's what we're bound to know in coming weeks. The volume spike is fantastic since it's larger than the spike back in 2011.
If the market bases out at this level and restarts the bullish run from here that will be an awesome double bottom! If you're not a prophet you're the closest we have in wazua. Going through the links above for last year, it's amazing. Pinning for that double bottom!! Remember you asked " I'm i the only crazy one to short KE banks? " then we didn't really see, that's a 40% haircut since then. Even without the rate cup bank stocks had sagged significantly . How do you do it. Clap clap π Hisah is BAD..I have just learnt you can do double bottom over longer spans of time This guy analysed the disconnect between treasury and CBK and the growing pessimism on banks and predicted regulation of banks to curb the negative social mood..I cant dig the thread Negative social mood leads to populist politics. @aguy, I'm no prophet and neither are the TA guys who called the ensuing correction. When you participate in the market long enough that experience becomes your guidance.
@metaspoilt, @mnandii is the one who initiated the negative social mood discussion when he started this thread. Strong bears over a long time-frame always cause negative social moods. The ruling class as well as politicians then resort to populism to try and appease the masses from a revolt. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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