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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Aguytrying wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:littledove wrote:mlennyma wrote:Can i expect 200 points slash today? The Nairobi All Share slumped -5.01% to close at 139.14 The Nairobi NSE20 crashed -4.41% lower to close at 3309.76 a level last reached in March 2012. I was expecting NSE20 to crash through that floor from the heavy bank stock losses witnessed today. The index now sits right on major support at 3300 handle. Next critical support comes in at 3000, which if broken opens up the GFC low at 2360.
@SPT remember the trouble with the euro chart? NSE20 has followed that chart almost to the T. That was a Great call Where did the euro chart point to next. How badly will banking stocks be affected by this law, are we talking half of current prices or is this a knee jerk reaction The interest capping law should not worry you. Banks can and do handle reduced profits/shrinking NIM admirably. They will always find ways of making money. Illiquidity however is a different beast all together. The rate cap makes a bad situation worse but it doesn't cause it. Those that were struggling with illiquidity have been fast-tracked towards oblivion. Coming at a time when the herd is already spooked - what with Dubai, Imperial and chase bank belly ups - another bank failure will have disastrous consequences. Gotcha. You techies are among the few not running around like headless chickens I am no techie. In fact I wouldn't know the first rule about charts, nonetheless, after being clobbered senseless by the market one learns a trick or two. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,909
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Any let off and signs of rebound on bank stocks next week? In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Angelica _ann wrote:Any let off and signs of rebound on bank stocks next week? A rebound is likely Friday next week. All other days a pool of blood coz banking stocks are under a butcher's knife. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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NSE 20 closes at 3216,not as steep a loss as yesterday.Even those bank share price losses will slow down next week,i will be closely watching.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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cnn wrote: NSE 20 closes at 3216,not as steep a loss as yesterday.Even those bank share price losses will slow down next week,i will be closely watching. heading to a whooping 2,500 points down something many are seeing for their first time "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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Spikes wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Any let off and signs of rebound on bank stocks next week? A rebound is likely Friday next week. All other days a pool of blood coz banking stocks are under a butcher's knife. for kcb and equity some investors must cancel their sell orders for calm to return otherwise next week will be reeeed,other bank stocks show some calm almost arriving "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/30/2016 Posts: 332 Location: Kayole
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mlennyma wrote:Spikes wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Any let off and signs of rebound on bank stocks next week? A rebound is likely Friday next week. All other days a pool of blood coz banking stocks are under a butcher's knife. for kcb and equity some investors must cancel their sell orders for calm to return otherwise next week will be reeeed,other bank stocks show some calm almost arriving come slowly brother. some of us are trying to exit. hapa ni kusaidiana KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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cnn wrote: NSE 20 closes at 3216,not as steep a loss as yesterday.Even those bank share price losses will slow down next week,i will be closely watching. any stock in the positive territory at this 3216 points is a Ghost "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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mkate_nusu wrote:mlennyma wrote:Spikes wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Any let off and signs of rebound on bank stocks next week? A rebound is likely Friday next week. All other days a pool of blood coz banking stocks are under a butcher's knife. for kcb and equity some investors must cancel their sell orders for calm to return otherwise next week will be reeeed,other bank stocks show some calm almost arriving come slowly brother. some of us are trying to exit. hapa ni kusaidiana the room is tear gassed and the opening is very small for massive exit "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,568 Location: nairobi
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mkate_nusu wrote:mlennyma wrote:Spikes wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Any let off and signs of rebound on bank stocks next week? A rebound is likely Friday next week. All other days a pool of blood coz banking stocks are under a butcher's knife. for kcb and equity some investors must cancel their sell orders for calm to return otherwise next week will be reeeed,other bank stocks show some calm almost arriving come slowly brother. some of us are trying to exit. hapa ni kusaidiana @mkate_nusu lol.. COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/30/2016 Posts: 332 Location: Kayole
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obiero wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:mlennyma wrote:Spikes wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Any let off and signs of rebound on bank stocks next week? A rebound is likely Friday next week. All other days a pool of blood coz banking stocks are under a butcher's knife. for kcb and equity some investors must cancel their sell orders for calm to return otherwise next week will be reeeed,other bank stocks show some calm almost arriving come slowly brother. some of us are trying to exit. hapa ni kusaidiana @mkate_nusu lol.. @obiero this is getting out of hand my 30% banking portfolio is seeing heavy damage with no chance of successful exit at the 10% daily lows. you seem calm though when your portfolio is equally taking a serious beating. KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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mkate_nusu wrote:obiero wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:mlennyma wrote:Spikes wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Any let off and signs of rebound on bank stocks next week? A rebound is likely Friday next week. All other days a pool of blood coz banking stocks are under a butcher's knife. for kcb and equity some investors must cancel their sell orders for calm to return otherwise next week will be reeeed,other bank stocks show some calm almost arriving come slowly brother. some of us are trying to exit. hapa ni kusaidiana @mkate_nusu lol.. @obiero this is getting out of hand my 30% banking portfolio is seeing heavy damage with no chance of successful exit at the 10% daily lows. you seem calm though when your portfolio is equally taking a serious beating. @mlennyma Cancelling orders will not help. Immediately as an order is cancelled others pop up desperately looking for exit. Sell off stampede is in control till Friday. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,568 Location: nairobi
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Spikes wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:obiero wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:mlennyma wrote:Spikes wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Any let off and signs of rebound on bank stocks next week? A rebound is likely Friday next week. All other days a pool of blood coz banking stocks are under a butcher's knife. for kcb and equity some investors must cancel their sell orders for calm to return otherwise next week will be reeeed,other bank stocks show some calm almost arriving come slowly brother. some of us are trying to exit. hapa ni kusaidiana @mkate_nusu lol.. @obiero this is getting out of hand my 30% banking portfolio is seeing heavy damage with no chance of successful exit at the 10% daily lows. you seem calm though when your portfolio is equally taking a serious beating. @mlennyma Cancelling orders will not help. Immediately as an order is cancelled others pop up desperately looking for exit. Sell off stampede is in control till Friday. @mkate_nusu selling off with nothing concrete plan to use the funds for, shall be a tragedy.. I have seen the ebb and flow of NSE since 2006.. I have watched COOP at 6, HFCK at 11, KCB at 15.. This too shall pass COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:Spikes wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:obiero wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:mlennyma wrote:Spikes wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Any let off and signs of rebound on bank stocks next week? A rebound is likely Friday next week. All other days a pool of blood coz banking stocks are under a butcher's knife. for kcb and equity some investors must cancel their sell orders for calm to return otherwise next week will be reeeed,other bank stocks show some calm almost arriving come slowly brother. some of us are trying to exit. hapa ni kusaidiana @mkate_nusu lol.. @obiero this is getting out of hand my 30% banking portfolio is seeing heavy damage with no chance of successful exit at the 10% daily lows. you seem calm though when your portfolio is equally taking a serious beating. @mlennyma Cancelling orders will not help. Immediately as an order is cancelled others pop up desperately looking for exit. Sell off stampede is in control till Friday. @mkate_nusu selling off with nothing concrete plan to use the funds for, shall be a tragedy.. I have seen the ebb and flow of NSE since 2006.. I have watched COOP at 6, HFCK at 11, KCB at 15.. This too shall pass Are there pigs flying in the sky? Coz I agree with @Obiero on this! Being a Warren Buffett fan, I have diversified but in a few sectors: Banks (I&M + Equity) are roughly 20% (& rapidly decreasing) of my portfolio. KenRe [Insurance] Unga (& FTGH) [Manufacturing] KK [Service/FMCG/Fuel] A motley assortment of others [Williamson, Kapchorua, Deacons, Olympia, TPSEA, etc - orphans, speculation, laziness to sell, leftovers - This is the impetus needed to sell these off] ---are roughly 20% each. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,568 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Spikes wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:obiero wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:mlennyma wrote:Spikes wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Any let off and signs of rebound on bank stocks next week? A rebound is likely Friday next week. All other days a pool of blood coz banking stocks are under a butcher's knife. for kcb and equity some investors must cancel their sell orders for calm to return otherwise next week will be reeeed,other bank stocks show some calm almost arriving come slowly brother. some of us are trying to exit. hapa ni kusaidiana @mkate_nusu lol.. @obiero this is getting out of hand my 30% banking portfolio is seeing heavy damage with no chance of successful exit at the 10% daily lows. you seem calm though when your portfolio is equally taking a serious beating. @mlennyma Cancelling orders will not help. Immediately as an order is cancelled others pop up desperately looking for exit. Sell off stampede is in control till Friday. @mkate_nusu selling off with nothing concrete plan to use the funds for, shall be a tragedy.. I have seen the ebb and flow of NSE since 2006.. I have watched COOP at 6, HFCK at 11, KCB at 15.. This too shall pass Are there pigs flying in the sky? Coz I agree with @Obiero on this! Being a Warren Buffett fan, I have diversified but in a few sectors: Banks (I&M + Equity) are roughly 20% (& rapidly decreasing) of my portfolio. KenRe [Insurance] Unga (& FTGH) [Manufacturing] KK [Service/FMCG/Fuel] A motley assortment of others [Williamson, Kapchorua, Deacons, Olympia, TPSEA, etc - orphans, speculation, laziness to sell, leftovers - This is the impetus needed to sell these off] ---are roughly 20% each. Someone who holds Deacons and Olympia should not contribute to any serious discussions.. At best he should also not dare attack any other investors choice because his are far insane COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Spikes wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:obiero wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:mlennyma wrote:Spikes wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Any let off and signs of rebound on bank stocks next week? A rebound is likely Friday next week. All other days a pool of blood coz banking stocks are under a butcher's knife. for kcb and equity some investors must cancel their sell orders for calm to return otherwise next week will be reeeed,other bank stocks show some calm almost arriving come slowly brother. some of us are trying to exit. hapa ni kusaidiana @mkate_nusu lol.. @obiero this is getting out of hand my 30% banking portfolio is seeing heavy damage with no chance of successful exit at the 10% daily lows. you seem calm though when your portfolio is equally taking a serious beating. @mlennyma Cancelling orders will not help. Immediately as an order is cancelled others pop up desperately looking for exit. Sell off stampede is in control till Friday. @mkate_nusu selling off with nothing concrete plan to use the funds for, shall be a tragedy.. I have seen the ebb and flow of NSE since 2006.. I have watched COOP at 6, HFCK at 11, KCB at 15.. This too shall pass Are there pigs flying in the sky? Coz I agree with @Obiero on this! Being a Warren Buffett fan, I have diversified but in a few sectors: Banks (I&M + Equity) are roughly 20% (& rapidly decreasing) of my portfolio. KenRe [Insurance] Unga (& FTGH) [Manufacturing] KK [Service/FMCG/Fuel] A motley assortment of others [Williamson, Kapchorua, Deacons, Olympia, TPSEA, etc - orphans, speculation, laziness to sell, leftovers - This is the impetus needed to sell these off] ---are roughly 20% each. Someone who holds Deacons and Olympia should not contribute to any serious discussions.. At best he should also not dare attack any other investors choice because his are far insane @vvs what do you say
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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bartum wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Spikes wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:obiero wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:mlennyma wrote:Spikes wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Any let off and signs of rebound on bank stocks next week? A rebound is likely Friday next week. All other days a pool of blood coz banking stocks are under a butcher's knife. for kcb and equity some investors must cancel their sell orders for calm to return otherwise next week will be reeeed,other bank stocks show some calm almost arriving come slowly brother. some of us are trying to exit. hapa ni kusaidiana @mkate_nusu lol.. @obiero this is getting out of hand my 30% banking portfolio is seeing heavy damage with no chance of successful exit at the 10% daily lows. you seem calm though when your portfolio is equally taking a serious beating. @mlennyma Cancelling orders will not help. Immediately as an order is cancelled others pop up desperately looking for exit. Sell off stampede is in control till Friday. @mkate_nusu selling off with nothing concrete plan to use the funds for, shall be a tragedy.. I have seen the ebb and flow of NSE since 2006.. I have watched COOP at 6, HFCK at 11, KCB at 15.. This too shall pass Are there pigs flying in the sky? Coz I agree with @Obiero on this! Being a Warren Buffett fan, I have diversified but in a few sectors: Banks (I&M + Equity) are roughly 20% (& rapidly decreasing) of my portfolio. KenRe [Insurance] Unga (& FTGH) [Manufacturing] KK [Service/FMCG/Fuel] A motley assortment of others [Williamson, Kapchorua, Deacons, Olympia, TPSEA, etc - orphans, speculation, laziness to sell, leftovers - This is the impetus needed to sell these off] ---are roughly 20% each. Someone who holds Deacons and Olympia should not contribute to any serious discussions.. At best he should also not dare attack any other investors choice because his are far insane @vvs what do you say Let's say investing in Olympia wasn't my best hour. I have a few shares left. Nothing to write home about. I bought Deacons, minimum application, via the PP through Kestrel. Nothing to write home about either. Now that they are traded on the NSE, I can look at selling them. Unlike @Obiero, I don't have "inside information", lunches with CEOs, Exchange Bar manenos... ... I devour newspapers, magazines, Annual Reports, Wazua comments, experiences with products and services. I fill up at KK, buy Unga products, use I&M and would buy insurance from KenRe if it was a retail insurance firm. I also like Serena properties and drink Williamson/Kakuzi Tea they give out at AGMs. I admit laziness is part of the reason why I never sold some of these. Heck, I even own some odd lots of KenGen, Eveready, etc. Even some KPLC in certificate form. The cost (time & commissions) of selling these is not worth it. I have been doing this a long time. I concentrate on the top 5 holdings. I have 4 major holdings at the moment each around 20-ish%. About 15-18% includes the good stuff like TPSEA, Williamson, Kapchorua and Kakuzi. Good management and prospects. My goal is to increase my stake in these over time at the right price. Some small (odd) lots of GoK bonds, KenGen bonds. These pay interest + principal repayments. About 2-5% include crap like 200 Eveready, some Olympia, 66 Kengen, etc. There are some ScanGroup bought during the IPO. Some KPLC in certificate format. Even 100-200 Coop left over when I sold my Coop coz the NSE doesn't have an "ALL or NONE" feature. I never give "BEST" orders to brokers to protect myself. If I could sell all these without much hassle, I would. The time/money cost of selling some of these make no sense. Or painlessly donate these to an entity/charity that can consolidate and sell them off. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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My Misses: I missed out on Safaricom coz I was pissed off at their prices & thought (sensible) Kenyans would switch to Airtel. I supported KQ [as a customer and shareholder] until I realized I could fly to Kigali & Entebbe at a fraction on RwandAir. I should have bailed out at 55 but waited until 13-14. Selling out of KQ was one of my best decisions! I agonized about it then sat down and went through the IM in excruciating detail. I consulted an analyst friend who was skeptical about it for a long time. Then I went through Wazua [was it @Horton or another Wazuan who provided data & laid out a table showing deteriorating performance] posts on KQ. Finally, I made the decision, called my broker and said dump them. Am I glad or am I glad. [Moved the money into KenRe] I missed out on cheap ARM but bought Bamburi. It turned out that despite all of ARM's problems, it did better than Bamburi for shareholders. Crown Berger. Went in cheap. Came out at a small profit. I thought the likes of Dura Coat [among others] would do them in. Turns out, Crown was resilient. Centum. I went in when it was all doom and gloom after an Investor Presentation and AGM around 18. Then it rocketed 40% and I sold off. Then it rocketed to 60. Britam. I went to a presentation that blew my socks off. Went in at 9/- but then it rapidly hit 13 and I bailed. And then it kept on climbing to 40. I missed out on Equity during the early days. I was not used to the concept of "wananchi" banking. I was turned off the long lines, etc. I pretended I was elitist. What drivel. If only I had visited more Equity branches and seen the crowds. Like some folks who get free biz class upgrades think they know how the cattle class feels about KQ. So folks, do not worry about making mistakes. We can miss the boat on good stuff or not sell at the top. Do your research. And before you invest, look at the Corporate Governance. No matter what. I do not care how attractive a firm looks if the management/board looks shady. Feel free to change your mind. I trust Unga's CEO (& board), KenRe's current mgmt, KK's Ohana, I&M's mgmt (& board)... As I do Williamson/Kapchorua, Aga Khan firms, FTGH, even Deacons (tough sector though), etc. All are subject to change. I like "cheap" [valuation] shares. I like firms with brands eg Unga & TPSEA. I like potential (slow and steady) growth. I am wary of firms whose sales grow 100% annually, wary of flashy CEOs always in the news, wary of CEOs on multiple boards [look at Naikuni], wary of GoK firms [KenRe is my exception] and so-called "inside information", etc. I may miss out on some gems but I am unapologetic. I am Warren Buffett-ian. Since I started (trying/in progress) following his principles, I found myself much better off. Always remain open to new ideas [I try to follow -unsuccessfully - what @karasingha posts]. As WB says, swing for the bases, not the home runs, if you want to win more games. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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Is the slaughter house active tomorrow? I should think investors will turn up in big numbers for the exercise "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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mlennyma wrote:Is the slaughter house active tomorrow? I should think investors will turn up in big numbers for the exercise till financials get a reprieve, investing in NSE is going to be tricky forward. bears have been re_energised and bulls muted by the caps ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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