MadDoc wrote:Boris Boyka wrote:alotoftalk wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Everyone is expanding their capacity...
ARM has the TZ plant now online. Then there is the "Kitui" plant [in 2-5 years] if it can be financed.
Dangote
Pokot/Sanghi/Cemtech
Is there enough demand?
Going by the cement consumption per capita argument, there is demand. Kenya's and EAC's in general is still below that of most developed or rapidly developing countries (there is a nice chart on the ARM website related to this).
There maybe temporary oversupply but this will correct in a few years. Also look at the Sephaku and Afrisam in SA which were developed at a time where everyone was questioning if there is demand but which are posting good growth metrics proving the per capita consumption theory.
True. @VVS i pass by a hardware every morning and I'll tell you they clear tonnes of cement in days. Several other hardwares are around and still sell the cement. If you're living in a closed apartment or filled up estate you'll think as you do. Somebody staying in outskirts of all Kenyan cities and towns will tell you new constructions are sprouting daily and they'll continue to do so for a while until housing demand is leveled. Just like people asked who would borrow loans at those high rates.
Is it safe to say that turnover in the near future would decrease? Seeing how Dangote entry cut cement prices by over 30% in TZ.
These price wars will not end well. There will be a victor and victims.
Always the case when a duolistic/ triolistic industry races on margins. It will be very nasty for the victims. Happened in telecom before Airtel and Orange threw in the towel. EABL thrashed Castle. Local banks walked all over kaburu banks. Bidco out punched Unilever.
The loser will be saddled with high capital investment and low returns. Might even be acquired by the winner.
The winner will increase prices to recover loses from price wars.
For now the situation looks risky for ARM with their heavy debts but local firms have a way of outmanoeuvring the foreign multinationals.
Life is short. Live passionately.