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obiero		#41 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 3:26:31 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi		VituVingiSana wrote: My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed. PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results] EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there] If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them. At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016. NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30 @Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something? You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani KQ ABP 4.26
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obiero		#42 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 4:26:50 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi		This one shall not recover.. Small banks are officially kaput KQ ABP 4.26
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Aguytrying		#43 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 7:34:19 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040		obiero wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed. PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results] EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there] If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them. At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016. NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30 @Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something? You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani This what is called fat tails. With new interest cap. What will be eps be in FY 2017 estimate? That's the real question The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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obiero		#44 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 7:50:22 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi		Aguytrying wrote: obiero wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed. PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results] EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there] If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them. At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016. NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30 @Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something? You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani This what is called fat tails. With new interest cap. What will be eps be in FY 2017 estimate? That's the real question The real question actually is whether the bank will be around in 2017.. Remember all the banks that have gone under or merged have a link to Asia KQ ABP 4.26
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murchr		#45 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 7:55:37 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980		obiero wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed. PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results] EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there] If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them. At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016. NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30 @Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something? You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani OMG you guys are on another level. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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VituVingiSana		#46 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 9:52:29 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi		Aguytrying wrote: obiero wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed. PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results] EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there] If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them. At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016. NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30 @Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something? You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani This what is called fat tails. With new interest cap. What will be eps be in FY 2017 estimate? That's the real question A question I have been giving a lot of thought. My take [and feel free to poke holes]... 1) Who are I&M BORROWING customers? Folks who primarily [except some credit cards, etc] have loans that have been secured which helps manage defaults thus a slimmer NIM isn't a death knell. 2) Who are I&M DEPOSIT customers? Folks who can negotiate higher rates for FDRs so paying 70% of CBR/KBRR isn't unheard of. What will I&M do with the low-balance savings accounts? Close them? Raise the minimum balances? 3) Tech will become a bigger part of I&M's "outreach" by slowing down branch expansion/visits. That's a given given the advances in mobile tech and increased/cheaper internet availability. 4) Expand overseas. There's Mauritius [mature market but scope for organic growth], Rwanda [a small but growing market] and Tanzania [let's leave that alone!]. Plus there is a chance to buy into Uganda. Use Mauritius as a launching pad for expansion into other (underbanked) African countries. At the "right" price, I think it makes lots of sense [to me] to add more shares t my holdings. Let's say the EPS drops to 10/-(for 2017) then the PER is still 9 which isn't too bad. [No, I will not defend I&M like he-who-defends-KQ come rain and more rain] Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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obiero		#47 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 10:16:25 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi		VituVingiSana wrote: Aguytrying wrote: obiero wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed. PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results] EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there] If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them. At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016. NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30 @Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something? You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani This what is called fat tails. With new interest cap. What will be eps be in FY 2017 estimate? That's the real question A question I have been giving a lot of thought. My take [and feel free to poke holes]... 1) Who are I&M BORROWING customers? Folks who primarily [except some credit cards, etc] have loans that have been secured which helps manage defaults thus a slimmer NIM isn't a death knell. 2) Who are I&M DEPOSIT customers? Folks who can negotiate higher rates for FDRs so paying 70% of CBR/KBRR isn't unheard of. What will I&M do with the low-balance savings accounts? Close them? Raise the minimum balances? 3) Tech will become a bigger part of I&M's "outreach" by slowing down branch expansion/visits. That's a given given the advances in mobile tech and increased/cheaper internet availability. 4) Expand overseas. There's Mauritius [mature market but scope for organic growth], Rwanda [a small but growing market] and Tanzania [let's leave that alone!]. Plus there is a chance to buy into Uganda. Use Mauritius as a launching pad for expansion into other (underbanked) African countries. At the "right" price, I think it makes lots of sense [to me] to add more shares t my holdings. Let's say the EPS drops to 10/-(for 2017) then the PER is still 9 which isn't too bad. [No, I will not defend I&M like he-who-defends-KQ come rain and more rain] My dearest brother.. This one will kill you. Trouble is you can't even exit coz it's close knit shareholding structure. Here EPS, PER, NPL or any other ratio will be a waste of brain cells, just consider yourself screwed.. Pole KQ ABP 4.26
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Aguytrying		#48 Posted : Saturday, August 27, 2016 12:33:54 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040		Why so negative @obiero. This is not a small bank. @vvs. ur reasoning makes sense, time will tell. Too much uncertainty to predict, but, fortune "or death" favours the brave. I'd rather shoot first and ask questions last when some calm is restored in Equity and DTB my banks. Than do nothing. But a wait and see approach for a few days is a good idea The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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VituVingiSana		#49 Posted : Saturday, August 27, 2016 12:54:30 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi		obiero wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: Aguytrying wrote: obiero wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed. PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results] EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there] If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them. At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016. NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30 @Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something? You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani This what is called fat tails. With new interest cap. What will be eps be in FY 2017 estimate? That's the real question A question I have been giving a lot of thought. My take [and feel free to poke holes]... 1) Who are I&M BORROWING customers? Folks who primarily [except some credit cards, etc] have loans that have been secured which helps manage defaults thus a slimmer NIM isn't a death knell. 2) Who are I&M DEPOSIT customers? Folks who can negotiate higher rates for FDRs so paying 70% of CBR/KBRR isn't unheard of. What will I&M do with the low-balance savings accounts? Close them? Raise the minimum balances? 3) Tech will become a bigger part of I&M's "outreach" by slowing down branch expansion/visits. That's a given given the advances in mobile tech and increased/cheaper internet availability. 4) Expand overseas. There's Mauritius [mature market but scope for organic growth], Rwanda [a small but growing market] and Tanzania [let's leave that alone!]. Plus there is a chance to buy into Uganda. Use Mauritius as a launching pad for expansion into other (underbanked) African countries. At the "right" price, I think it makes lots of sense [to me] to add more shares t my holdings. Let's say the EPS drops to 10/-(for 2017) then the PER is still 9 which isn't too bad. [No, I will not defend I&M like he-who-defends-KQ come rain and more rain] My dearest brother.. This one will kill you. Trouble is you can't even exit coz it's close knit shareholding structure. Here EPS, PER, NPL or any other ratio will be a waste of brain cells, just consider yourself screwed.. Pole Then let this be my KQ ... Waiting for Monday and I hope it gets cheaper coz I want to buy! Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down - Warren Buffett Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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obiero		#50 Posted : Saturday, August 27, 2016 6:17:51 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi		VituVingiSana wrote: obiero wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: Aguytrying wrote: obiero wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed. PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results] EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there] If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them. At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016. NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30 @Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something? You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani This what is called fat tails. With new interest cap. What will be eps be in FY 2017 estimate? That's the real question A question I have been giving a lot of thought. My take [and feel free to poke holes]... 1) Who are I&M BORROWING customers? Folks who primarily [except some credit cards, etc] have loans that have been secured which helps manage defaults thus a slimmer NIM isn't a death knell. 2) Who are I&M DEPOSIT customers? Folks who can negotiate higher rates for FDRs so paying 70% of CBR/KBRR isn't unheard of. What will I&M do with the low-balance savings accounts? Close them? Raise the minimum balances? 3) Tech will become a bigger part of I&M's "outreach" by slowing down branch expansion/visits. That's a given given the advances in mobile tech and increased/cheaper internet availability. 4) Expand overseas. There's Mauritius [mature market but scope for organic growth], Rwanda [a small but growing market] and Tanzania [let's leave that alone!]. Plus there is a chance to buy into Uganda. Use Mauritius as a launching pad for expansion into other (underbanked) African countries. At the "right" price, I think it makes lots of sense [to me] to add more shares t my holdings. Let's say the EPS drops to 10/-(for 2017) then the PER is still 9 which isn't too bad. [No, I will not defend I&M like he-who-defends-KQ come rain and more rain] My dearest brother.. This one will kill you. Trouble is you can't even exit coz it's close knit shareholding structure. Here EPS, PER, NPL or any other ratio will be a waste of brain cells, just consider yourself screwed.. Pole Then let this be my KQ ... Waiting for Monday and I hope it gets cheaper coz I want to buy! Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down - Warren Buffett To each his own.. I wish you all the best brother KQ ABP 4.26
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