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Bear 2015 Wish List
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Aguytrying
#161 Posted : Friday, August 12, 2016 7:32:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
littledove wrote:
i have a bear wishlist of around seven stocks
two of them have reached my target scangroup and cic. i have already done buying scangroup and started cic.
i have decided once my target is reached i buy without turning back. i have a target of 3 to five years.

The right focus is what is needed during the big bear season. Good work Applause


Littledove. Thats the right way. Waiting for unknown bottoms is the worst strategy. I've already started buying FTGH, DTB and Equity. I'm buying in bits as they keep going down.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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enyands
#162 Posted : Friday, August 12, 2016 7:59:29 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,301
Location: kenya
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
littledove wrote:
i have a bear wishlist of around seven stocks
two of them have reached my target scangroup and cic. i have already done buying scangroup and started cic.
i have decided once my target is reached i buy without turning back. i have a target of 3 to five years.

The right focus is what is needed during the big bear season. Good work Applause


Littledove. Thats the right way. Waiting for unknown bottoms is the worst strategy. I've already started buying FTGH, DTB and Equity. I'm buying in bits as they keep going down.


I thought so but with much going on with the banks - NPLS and interest caps,I'll focus more on other blue chips for now . I'm looking into scan group,now that elections is neigh.
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VituVingiSana
#163 Posted : Saturday, August 13, 2016 9:01:54 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
littledove wrote:
i have a bear wishlist of around seven stocks
two of them have reached my target scangroup and cic. i have already done buying scangroup and started cic.
i have decided once my target is reached i buy without turning back. i have a target of 3 to five years.
Applause Applause Applause [Though I have my reservations about CIC. For insurance, I am in KenRe [despite it being a GoK firm] which I watch carefully.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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littledove
#164 Posted : Saturday, August 13, 2016 9:22:50 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 927
Location: sky
Ebenyo wrote:
[quote=hisah][quote=littledove]i have a bear wishlist of around seven stocks
two of them have reached my target scangroup and cic. i have already done buying scangroup and started cic.
i have decided once my target is reached i buy without turning back. i have a target of 3 to five years.

@little dove,can you pliz share your wish list? i also wish for five more stocks as i continue to build my ideal portfolio.


@ebenyo i have considered the following
scangroup - commercial and services sector
carbacid 13 and - FTG 4.50 manufacturing sector
panafica 30 and cic 4- insurance sector
HF 18 and CFC 60 - banking
i already have some kenolkobil from previous season which means if i complete buying i will have a total of 8
Though im not planning to have a bloated portfolio im also keenly watching centum and liberty.
i will not start buying HF though target was reached awaiting pending bill to decide on banks
i have avoided govn and merali owned companies following several discussion here, i seriously value information by wazuans.
i have also avoided companies which might float right issue- a wazuan noted that as likely by HF - also considering that
it is also good to note that some stocks though good and well managed are poor performers especially in bull season i learnt that 2013 2014 bull season example if a bull returns today who will make more money in one year: somebody who owns cic @4 or somebody who owns safaricom @20. anyway i don't want to start a debate im likely to lose but those are some of the factors i have considered.
total planned investment 1.2m in above shares and 300k for any other opportunity and speculative purpose

There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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littledove
#165 Posted : Saturday, August 13, 2016 9:42:46 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 927
Location: sky
VituVingiSana wrote:
littledove wrote:
i have a bear wishlist of around seven stocks
two of them have reached my target scangroup and cic. i have already done buying scangroup and started cic.
i have decided once my target is reached i buy without turning back. i have a target of 3 to five years.
Applause Applause Applause [Though I have my reservations about CIC. For insurance, I am in KenRe [despite it being a GoK firm] which I watch carefully.

@vvs im with you in kk and most probably i will join you in FTG but kenyare i dont have grace to rejoin after failing to make remarkable gain previous bull.Expecting kenyare to rally is like expecting a tortoise to run, even when their is fire it cant run smile
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Ebenyo
#166 Posted : Saturday, August 13, 2016 11:03:48 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 2,016
Location: Kitale
littledove wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
[quote=hisah][quote=littledove]i have a bear wishlist of around seven stocks
two of them have reached my target scangroup and cic. i have already done buying scangroup and started cic.
i have decided once my target is reached i buy without turning back. i have a target of 3 to five years.

@little dove,can you pliz share your wish list? i also wish for five more stocks as i continue to build my ideal portfolio.


@ebenyo i have considered the following
scangroup - commercial and services sector
carbacid 13 and - FTG 4.50 manufacturing sector
panafica 30 and cic 4- insurance sector
HF 18 and CFC 60 - banking
i already have some kenolkobil from previous season which means if i complete buying i will have a total of 8
Though im not planning to have a bloated portfolio im also keenly watching centum and liberty.
i will not start buying HF though target was reached awaiting pending bill to decide on banks
i have avoided govn and merali owned companies following several discussion here, i seriously value information by wazuans.
i have also avoided companies which might float right issue- a wazuan noted that as likely by HF - also considering that
it is also good to note that some stocks though good and well managed are poor performers especially in bull season i learnt that 2013 2014 bull season example if a bull returns today who will make more money in one year: somebody who owns cic @4 or somebody who owns safaricom @20. anyway i don't want to start a debate im likely to lose but those are some of the factors i have considered.
total planned investment 1.2m in above shares and 300k for any other opportunity and speculative purpose



Thanks for sharing.Thats the true spirit of wazua.
For the first time i hear somebody thinking carbacid.Thats the good side of sharing.Im also thinking in that line.
Its not easy going through 64 companies and pick the best ten.Sharing information and ideas makes it easier though.
I will go through your list,aguy bear list and wazua stocks for life list and align them based on what i can afford now,later and forever.I want to have ideal 10 stocks for life.Those that my grandchildren will inherit.
Im now okey as to portfolio building.I know what to buy and what not to buy.I now shift to value.All the best little dove.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, August 13, 2016 11:08 AM | Reason: Not specified
mkate_nusu
#167 Posted : Friday, August 19, 2016 9:33:36 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/30/2016
Posts: 332
Location: Kayole
Aguytrying wrote:
Afroblk wrote:
I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.

Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)

KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52

My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;

KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85

As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.

I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.

Good Luck!


All the best. My thoughts Your investment period looks a bit short, also, quite optimistic exit prices for HFCK, CENTUM. but you never know


That new-farer was highly optimistic I am guessing he wishes he reinvested into the bond market one year ago
KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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mkate_nusu
#168 Posted : Friday, August 19, 2016 9:37:11 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/30/2016
Posts: 332
Location: Kayole
Aguytrying wrote:
Museveni wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve.

Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre.

In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round.
Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now.

STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7 CURRENT PRICE

EQUITY 4.63 25-33 39.25
KCB 5.63 30-40 46.00
NIC 7.07 38-49 49.00
NSE 2.13 12-15 20.00
DTB 21.92 120-154 204.00
HFCK 2.75 15-20 21.50

JUBILEE 48 264-340 560.00
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43 67.00

SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE) 14.00
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely) 184.00
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS) 33.00

BAMBURI 9.80 98-130 154.00
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE) 8.50
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE) 295.00
ARM 3.01 30-45 61.00
BAT 42.55 300-450 741.00
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21 62.00
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7 7.50
BOC 11.76 65-85 133.00


The price in green was in August 2015, almost 1 year ago. compare with today


8 targets smashed to the downside what's your next move?
KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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Aguytrying
#169 Posted : Saturday, August 20, 2016 8:04:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mkate_nusu wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Museveni wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve.

Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre.

In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round.
Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now.

STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7 CURRENT PRICE

EQUITY 4.63 25-33 39.25
KCB 5.63 30-40 46.00
NIC 7.07 38-49 49.00
NSE 2.13 12-15 20.00
DTB 21.92 120-154 204.00
HFCK 2.75 15-20 21.50

JUBILEE 48 264-340 560.00
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43 67.00

SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE) 14.00
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely) 184.00
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS) 33.00

BAMBURI 9.80 98-130 154.00
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE) 8.50
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE) 295.00
ARM 3.01 30-45 61.00
BAT 42.55 300-450 741.00
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21 62.00
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7 7.50
BOC 11.76 65-85 133.00


The price in green was in August 2015, almost 1 year ago. compare with today


8 targets smashed to the downside what's your next move?


This is what i have been waiting for since i started this thread 1 year ago. Currently actively buying DTB, FTGH and EQUITY bank. If i had more cash id be also dipping into Pan Africa. adding to TPSE position which i had even before this list.

I have since shifted my attention from KCB, NIC due to those ballooning NPLs. i realised i had too many financials so these 2 got the chop. ARM due to 43% dilution affecting my valuation entry point.

Softened my stance on HFCK, NSE to avoid too many financials. but still in for them if i can leverage services and manufacturing sector going forward
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, August 20, 2016 8:20 AM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#170 Posted : Saturday, August 20, 2016 10:42:54 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
mkate_nusu wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Museveni wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve.

Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre.

In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round.
Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now.

STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7 CURRENT PRICE

EQUITY 4.63 25-33 39.25
KCB 5.63 30-40 46.00
NIC 7.07 38-49 49.00
NSE 2.13 12-15 20.00
DTB 21.92 120-154 204.00
HFCK 2.75 15-20 21.50

JUBILEE 48 264-340 560.00
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43 67.00

SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE) 14.00
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely) 184.00
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS) 33.00

BAMBURI 9.80 98-130 154.00
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE) 8.50
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE) 295.00
ARM 3.01 30-45 61.00
BAT 42.55 300-450 741.00
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21 62.00
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7 7.50
BOC 11.76 65-85 133.00


The price in green was in August 2015, almost 1 year ago. compare with today


8 targets smashed to the downside what's your next move?


This is what i have been waiting for since i started this thread 1 year ago. Currently actively buying DTB, FTGH and EQUITY bank. If i had more cash id be also dipping into Pan Africa. adding to TPSE position which i had even before this list.

I have since shifted my attention from KCB, NIC due to those ballooning NPLs. i realised i had too many financials so these 2 got the chop. ARM due to 43% dilution affecting my valuation entry point.

Softened my stance on HFCK, NSE to avoid too many financials. but still in for them if i can leverage services and manufacturing sector going forward

I am slowly buying FTGH [limited quantities].
I like DTB but coz I have exposure in Tier 2 via I&M so I'll stick with one.
Equity, I like. A lot. Though I feel it will get cheaper. Plus until the Interest Rate Capping saga is settled it is unsettling. Equity has a lot of "expensive" loans that can get hammered by the proposed Bill.
TPSEA - Yes! [At this price]
Pan Africa - No.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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