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directional forecast
karasinga
#221 Posted : Thursday, August 11, 2016 8:47:14 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
mufasa wrote:
karasinga wrote:
hope this helps.
Am I correct to assume that wave three is not always the longest and the bear that follows wave five will settle around the region of wave four lows and not anywhere lower. Looking at the chart, point B of 2012 is actually the lowest point of wave 4 that began in 2009 and as such we are now experiencing the last of wave 5.
@mufasa, "Am I correct to assume that wave three is not always the longest and the bear that follows wave five will settle around the region of wave four lows and not anywhere lower." that is correct "Looking at the chart, point B of 2012 is actually the lowest point of wave 4 that began in 2009 and as such we are now experiencing the last of wave 5." in my humble opinion, the high of 2007(point A in blue) marked the last bull impulse wave and probably wave 5. This means since the the market has been correcting. If that is the case, the low of late 2002 formed wave 4. So if "bear that follows wave five will settle around the region of wave four lows and not anywhere lower", then bear might continue lower to sub 2000 points although there are 2 structures/obstacles on the way that might hold a little or act as support. there is nothing certain with financial markets. but at least we have an expectation
It's not over until I win skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#222 Posted : Friday, August 12, 2016 6:14:56 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
is this the current information on kenol chart or its recycling of old information? ? If you are not onbound, buy around 10.55 if on bound, sell targets target 1 = 12 target 2 = 12.5-12.7 target 3 = 13.35 target 4(most ambitious target) = 14
As much as we respect charts because Math is a true knowledge that no reasonable man can doubt, follow your spirit. Do not jump into a counter without consulting your instincts plus other factors!
@ mlennyma. This is the current information(as by end of day 15th April 2016) including past predictions. it is a road we have traveled so far since first analysis. as Spikes put it, consult your instincts.
now this doesn't give spikes any hope for his 8bob song,iam however expecting some action on kk towards book close and after positive AGM insights
Long termers are already locked in I don't think pockets of traders can trigger a rally as much as we head towards books closure. Expect sub 10/- before books closure and later on 8/-. No new info to speculate on at AGM if any. All good news is exhausted and captured in the current price.
lets see what Mr. Market has in store for us.
this will determine my faith in charts
watch keno closely. our targets still sound
kenol kobil is about to set a new high not because of charts but the companies positive news
hope i was not misunderstood. mlennyma,this post was to update us on the progress of the counter and had no intent to proof or say "because of charts" this is happening. with all due respect, if I need to explain this point further let me know.
and there we gosmile as at 1100hrs watching closely.
update by close of business with my thoughts on the chart
trying bar by bar analysis. already loving this, the green line doing its work. what does this means to me? 1. bulls are sitting around this line no wonder bears attempt to push lower were strongly rejected. 2. might be getting in a range like/complex impulse wave due to recent rejection from both side of the market. but path of least resistance is up. look at the volume involved with each rejection. 3. might have a extended wave 5 with low of 10.6 today making wave 2 (in red) or 4. might have a termination diagonal. if this will be the case, then i will need to be careful with keno because that will indicate a strong quick thrust downward will follow back to 10.6 NOTE: we still have an alternative wave count in maroon(ABC)
I am of the opinion put forth by no.4 above.
@spikes, your opinion is legitimate and can be a possibility. ie ABC to complete corrective wave 4. in the mean time bar by bar analysis continues... 9th August 2016. spinning top formed. This confirms prior analysis made for the last two trading days.This demonstrates some indecision on the part of the bulls and the bears and would warrant watching for the next day’s price action.
correction. on 9th august, a black closing Marubozu formed. that indicated that sellers controlled the price action from the first trade to the last trade although on a small volume. The day opened and prices went slightly higher, forming an upper shadow. Then prices reversed direction moving below the opening level, and the decline continues all day ending with a closing price equal to the low of the day. The bears were very strong during that day except during the initial phase of the session. on 10th august, a hammer formed. The price opened and started to trade lower. The bears were still in control. The bulls then stepped in. They started to bring the price back up towards the top of the trading range on high volume. This created a small body with a large lower shadow. This represents that the bears could not maintain control. The long lower shadow now has the bears questioning whether the decline is still intact. A higher open on 11th August would confirm that the bulls have taken control.
on 11th, another hammer with a black head formed still on high volume. this indicates: 1. bears are still present although they seem to be losing steam(higher low). 2. bulls might be grouping to take it higher. A higher open as from 12th august would confirm bulls are in full control. trying bar by bar to check whether NSE follows technical like other financial markets. BABY STEPS...
It's not over until I win skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
mkate_nusu
#223 Posted : Monday, August 22, 2016 12:47:40 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/30/2016
Posts: 332
Location: Kayole
karasinga wrote:
KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
karasinga
#224 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 3:44:20 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
mkate_nusu wrote:
karasinga wrote:
@mkate_nusu. if referring to keno, I don't think so. check what is on my chart
It's not over until I win skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#225 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 10:31:52 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
mufasa wrote:
karasinga wrote:
hope this helps.
Am I correct to assume that wave three is not always the longest and the bear that follows wave five will settle around the region of wave four lows and not anywhere lower. Looking at the chart, point B of 2012 is actually the lowest point of wave 4 that began in 2009 and as such we are now experiencing the last of wave 5.
@mufasa, "Am I correct to assume that wave three is not always the longest and the bear that follows wave five will settle around the region of wave four lows and not anywhere lower." that is correct "Looking at the chart, point B of 2012 is actually the lowest point of wave 4 that began in 2009 and as such we are now experiencing the last of wave 5." in my humble opinion, the high of 2007(point A in blue) marked the last bull impulse wave and probably wave 5. This means since the the market has been correcting. If that is the case, the low of late 2002 formed wave 4. So if "bear that follows wave five will settle around the region of wave four lows and not anywhere lower", then bear might continue lower to sub 2000 points although there are 2 structures/obstacles on the way that might hold a little or act as support. there is nothing certain with financial markets. but at least we have an expectation
i have never thought this is feasible but look. bullish divergence with RSI opinions and criticism highly welcomed
It's not over until I win skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#226 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 9:17:09 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
Banks post capping of interest rates. with the data i have EQT CFC KCB DTB COOP BBK HFCK shaffing continues shortly.
It's not over until I win skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
enyands
#227 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 11:06:19 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,301
Location: kenya
karasinga wrote:
Banks post capping of interest rates. with the data i have EQT CFC KCB DTB COOP BBK HFCK shaffing continues shortly.
And let it continue till members are taught manners
snipermnoma
#228 Posted : Tuesday, August 30, 2016 7:41:20 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
karasinga wrote:
mufasa wrote:
karasinga wrote:
hope this helps.
Am I correct to assume that wave three is not always the longest and the bear that follows wave five will settle around the region of wave four lows and not anywhere lower. Looking at the chart, point B of 2012 is actually the lowest point of wave 4 that began in 2009 and as such we are now experiencing the last of wave 5.
@mufasa, "Am I correct to assume that wave three is not always the longest and the bear that follows wave five will settle around the region of wave four lows and not anywhere lower." that is correct "Looking at the chart, point B of 2012 is actually the lowest point of wave 4 that began in 2009 and as such we are now experiencing the last of wave 5." in my humble opinion, the high of 2007(point A in blue) marked the last bull impulse wave and probably wave 5. This means since the the market has been correcting. If that is the case, the low of late 2002 formed wave 4. So if "bear that follows wave five will settle around the region of wave four lows and not anywhere lower", then bear might continue lower to sub 2000 points although there are 2 structures/obstacles on the way that might hold a little or act as support. there is nothing certain with financial markets. but at least we have an expectation
Looks like this call was the right one. We are on the way to sub 3000. Reminds me of post 1377: link and below
mnandii wrote:
The fact of the NSE 20 Share index gropping for below 3830 gives me confidence that the bear market in stocks is here to stay and will likely get worse. It should be awakening call for most. The NSE 20 Share Index started its journey in 1966 at 100. The data available to me on the index is as shown in the chart above from ft.com. The most important thing is that the data fits perfectly into Elliott Waves as they should (after all we are tracking mass human psychology). From this we can proceed to 'predict' the future! Wave (A) ended at 2360.01 in Mar', 2009. Wave (B) ended at 5499.64 in Mar', 2015. The preferred Elliott count suggests that the fall from the 5499.64 level is a wave (C) which has much further to drop. We can target the final low for the NSE 20 share index which I expect to occur probably in 2017. Assuming that the movement from 100 to the ultimate high of 6161.46 (on Jan', 2007) is one major Impulse wave, then the waves (A), (B) and (C) are its correction (a wave two). Second waves usually retrace a Fibonacci 61.8 or 78.6% of wave one. Thus: {6161.46 -( 0.618 X (6161.46 - 100))} = 2415.48 And {6161.46 - ( 0.786 X (6161 - 100))} = 1397.15 Also, if wave (C) be equal to wave (A) then: Wave (C) bottom = { 5499.64 - (6161.46-2360.01) } = 1698.19 So targets for wave (C) and thus the ultimate bottom for the NSE 20 Share Index are 2415.48, 1698.19 or 1397.15. The alternate scenario is that wave (B) is not complete and thus a move above 5499.64 is in the cards. I give this scenario a low probability since the proposed wave (B) would appear too stretched. Analysis of the shorter term will show in these pages soon. #BEST.
snipermnoma
#229 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2016 6:17:12 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
Silenced Crickets here
karasinga
#230 Posted : Saturday, September 17, 2016 11:58:03 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
snipermnoma wrote:
Silenced Crickets here
not really silenced. have been busy with what brings food on the table and doing a little study. hope you are well.
It's not over until I win skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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