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Is Taking a Mortgage the WORST Decision Ever??
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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sanity wrote:dunkang wrote:According to the following "Experts", the bubble is here;
- Knight Franks
- Hass Consult (WAH!!!)
- Cytonn
- Central Bank
"the real estate sector recorded the highest increase in non-performing loans, by Sh5.9 billion or 42.3 per cent, according to a report by the Central Bank of Kenya"
"Prime rents for Nairobi fell 7.9 per cent in quarter one of 2016, according to the report, which pointed out that for the past four years, rents in Kenya’s capital have been declining."
"Land prices in Mlolongo and Athi River have fallen by 10 per cent and four per cent, respectively, signalling a decline in demand for housing." Let them keep dreaming... http://www.nation.co.ke/...23544-ns7h49/index.html
sio mimi, ni "experts". Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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If 5.9B is a bubble then we have seen nothing yet. This is a glut. The problem with Kenyans is we never use data in anything. Athi River Kitengela Syokimau are now over crowded, the more you are the less the returns. People still need housing but what kind of housing and where should lead you to investment "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/11/2014 Posts: 228 Location: Nairobi
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/9/2015 Posts: 233
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iris wrote:Swenani wrote:DBLyon wrote:What is the true value of a property? Or a stock? Or anything, really? I would ask him that. valueless Now what do you mean Swenani? Maybe you should wait until oxygen gets back to your head before posting @iris kwani oxygen imeenda wapi? Before you brush him off let us get what he mans first. @Swenani Im interested in this theory and why you are paying for them yourself. Explain kama niko preunit "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,459
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Sikio la kufa halisikii dawa!!! Once the prices of land and rents start going down, and land companies have "60% sold" for more than 2 years, it is time to open your eyes, ears and mind. It was unimaginable to Kenyans that you can buy a plot and the price REDUCES by 10% a year later. Very many things are still unimaginable to Kenyans... Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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MaichBlack wrote:Sikio la kufa halisikii dawa!!!
Once the prices of land and rents start going down, and land companies have "60% sold" for more than 2 years, it is time to open your eyes, ears and mind.
It was unimaginable to Kenyans that you can buy a plot and the price REDUCES by 10% a year later. Very many things are still unimaginable to Kenyans... Land prices have to obey the laws of demand and supply like everything else. So many factors are in play. Forexample. I buy land in Mavoko plain land nyasi tu with information that KU might/will set up the School of agriculture and animal husbandry in the next few plots. Not many know this- 2 years, GOK announces the plan and construction dates etc- ...ofcourse the demand of land in the neighborhood will go up, wanjiku will come flocking looking for a piece of that (1/8) to put up a flat so as to construct hostels right? After those 2 years, nothing is on the ground, Wanjiku is now wondering, was this a hoax? So they start selling, slowly the shift happens the market gets more sellers than buyers. What does that do to price? Price elasticity of demand and supply. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2014 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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MaichBlack wrote:Sikio la kufa halisikii dawa!!!
Once the prices of land and rents start going down, and land companies have "60% sold" for more than 2 years, it is time to open your eyes, ears and mind.
It was unimaginable to Kenyans that you can buy a plot and the price REDUCES by 10% a year later. Very many things are still unimaginable to Kenyans... Kindly address the question of the lower class segment insatiable demand.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,459
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Akenyan2014 wrote:MaichBlack wrote:Sikio la kufa halisikii dawa!!!
Once the prices of land and rents start going down, and land companies have "60% sold" for more than 2 years, it is time to open your eyes, ears and mind.
It was unimaginable to Kenyans that you can buy a plot and the price REDUCES by 10% a year later. Very many things are still unimaginable to Kenyans... Kindly address the question of the lower class segment insatiable demand. Somebody here said demand means nothing without a means to pay! Example: The number of people who travel by air is less than 10% of those who would want or even need to travel by air. But airlines are still struggling. Why? The 90% will HAVE TO travel by road or even cancel the journey all together! Extrapolate that to other markets... Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/1/2007 Posts: 539 Location: Nakuru
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MaichBlack wrote:Akenyan2014 wrote:MaichBlack wrote:Sikio la kufa halisikii dawa!!!
Once the prices of land and rents start going down, and land companies have "60% sold" for more than 2 years, it is time to open your eyes, ears and mind.
It was unimaginable to Kenyans that you can buy a plot and the price REDUCES by 10% a year later. Very many things are still unimaginable to Kenyans... Kindly address the question of the lower class segment insatiable demand. Somebody here said demand means nothing without a means to pay! Example: The number of people who travel by air is less than 10% of those who would want or even need to travel by air. But airlines are still struggling. Why? The 90% will HAVE TO travel by road or even cancel the journey all together! Extrapolate that to other markets... Word For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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MaichBlack wrote:Akenyan2014 wrote:MaichBlack wrote:Sikio la kufa halisikii dawa!!!
Once the prices of land and rents start going down, and land companies have "60% sold" for more than 2 years, it is time to open your eyes, ears and mind.
It was unimaginable to Kenyans that you can buy a plot and the price REDUCES by 10% a year later. Very many things are still unimaginable to Kenyans... Kindly address the question of the lower class segment insatiable demand. Somebody here said demand means nothing without a means to pay! Example: The number of people who travel by air is less than 10% of those who would want or even need to travel by air. But airlines are still struggling. Why? The 90% will HAVE TO travel by road or even cancel the journey all together! Extrapolate that to other markets... There can be no demand with if theres no pay.... "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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https://centralbank.go.k...pervision-annual-report
Just read through section 2.8 Residential Mortgages Market Survey 2015: Summarized it below 1. Value of mortgage loan assets stands at 203.3B vs. 164.0B in 2014.(Up 23%) 2. Total number of mortgages is 24,458 vs. 22,013 in 2014 (Up 11.11%) 3. Outstanding value of Non-Performing Mortgages is 11.7B vs. 10.8B in 2014. (Up 8.33%) 4. The NPLs to gross mortgage loans was 5.8% which was below the industry ratio of 7.0% 5. 89.3% of mortgage loans were on variable interest basis compared to 92.5% in 2014. 6. 71.6% of lending to the mortgage market was by 5 institutions i.e. One medium sized bank (23.4%) and 4 banks from the large banks peer group (48.2%) (Specific banks are not mentioned) 7. Number of institutions offering mortgages were 34 compared to 37 in 2014 due to liquidation of Dubai Bank and placement of Imperial Bank Limited and Chase Bank Limited in receivership. You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 6/26/2013 Posts: 15
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alutacontinua wrote:https://centralbank.go.ke/index.php/news/498-2015-bank-supervision-annual-report
Just read through section 2.8 Residential Mortgages Market Survey 2015:
Summarized it below
1. Value of mortgage loan assets stands at 203.3B vs. 164.0B in 2014.(Up 23%)
2. Total number of mortgages is 24,458 vs. 22,013 in 2014 (Up 11.11%)
3. Outstanding value of Non-Performing Mortgages is 11.7B vs. 10.8B in 2014. (Up 8.33%)
4. The NPLs to gross mortgage loans was 5.8% which was below the industry ratio of 7.0%
5. 89.3% of mortgage loans were on variable interest basis compared to 92.5% in 2014.
6. 71.6% of lending to the mortgage market was by 5 institutions i.e. One medium sized bank (23.4%) and 4 banks from the large banks peer group (48.2%) (Specific banks are not mentioned)
7. Number of institutions offering mortgages were 34 compared to 37 in 2014 due to liquidation of Dubai Bank and placement of Imperial Bank Limited and Chase Bank Limited in receivership. Great summary that shows the trend, it would be interesting to see how the 2016 mortgage outlook will compare to the 2015 one.
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/21/2009 Posts: 602
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Interesting twitter thread about mortgages--A bit biased against them, but the statistics are interesting: Creating affordable mortgages is an area ready for MAJOR disruption.. https://twitter.com/dnah...tatus/811308410335612928
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/9/2007 Posts: 13,095
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,530 Location: nairobi
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Most Kenyans cannot afford the rents right now
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/3/2007 Posts: 1,634
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obiero wrote:Most Kenyans cannot afford the rents right now Actually the famed real estate sector burst has already happened but in the high price segment. Demand for mid and lower class housing is however so high that this correction will have no effect on this segment. This is where Uhuru should focus all his housing effort under the big 4. It is also where margins are likely to remain highest. "The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,595
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Wakanyugi wrote:obiero wrote:Most Kenyans cannot afford the rents right now Actually the famed real estate sector burst has already happened but in the high price segment. Demand for mid and lower class housing is however so high that this correction will have no effect on this segment. This is where Uhuru should focus all his housing effort under the big 4. It is also where margins are likely to remain highest. Demand describes a consumer's desire and willingness to pay a price for specific good or service. If the consumer cannot rent then he will not generate demand. If demand was so high then the private sector would have rushed to supply houses to meet this segment. A decent mid/lower class house of 3m at 12% interest spread over 20 years will require 33k per month. Simply put the consumer lacks the purchasing power and as such resources/capital should be better utilized in lifting the consumer's purchasing power not subsidizing his poverty.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,530 Location: nairobi
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wukan wrote:Wakanyugi wrote:obiero wrote:Most Kenyans cannot afford the rents right now Actually the famed real estate sector burst has already happened but in the high price segment. Demand for mid and lower class housing is however so high that this correction will have no effect on this segment. This is where Uhuru should focus all his housing effort under the big 4. It is also where margins are likely to remain highest. Demand describes a consumer's desire and willingness to pay a price for specific good or service. If the consumer cannot rent then he will not generate demand. If demand was so high then the private sector would have rushed to supply houses to meet this segment. A decent mid/lower class house of 3m at 12% interest spread over 20 years will require 33k per month. Simply put the consumer lacks the purchasing power and as such resources/capital should be better utilized in lifting the consumer's purchasing power not subsidizing his poverty. @wukan.. meanwhile, there is a property sold weeks ago in Magnolia Close Karen going at KES 600m to a Kenyan! https://answersafrica.co...as-luxurious-houses.html
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,595
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obiero wrote:wukan wrote:Wakanyugi wrote:obiero wrote:Most Kenyans cannot afford the rents right now Actually the famed real estate sector burst has already happened but in the high price segment. Demand for mid and lower class housing is however so high that this correction will have no effect on this segment. This is where Uhuru should focus all his housing effort under the big 4. It is also where margins are likely to remain highest. Demand describes a consumer's desire and willingness to pay a price for specific good or service. If the consumer cannot rent then he will not generate demand. If demand was so high then the private sector would have rushed to supply houses to meet this segment. A decent mid/lower class house of 3m at 12% interest spread over 20 years will require 33k per month. Simply put the consumer lacks the purchasing power and as such resources/capital should be better utilized in lifting the consumer's purchasing power not subsidizing his poverty. @wukan.. meanwhile, there is a property sold weeks ago in Magnolia Close Karen going at KES 600m to a Kenyan! https://answersafrica.co...s-luxurious-houses.html Wow! that like 1 acre in CBD.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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