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CBK prefer dutch auction for its bonds
Scubidu
#1 Posted : Wednesday, April 21, 2010 7:39:25 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
In a dutch auction the seller is offering two or more of an identical item for auction. Unlike a standard auction, a dutch auction may have more than one winning bidder.

Each bidder bids on either all, or a desired number of the auction items, and indicates the price that he/she is willing to pay for each of item. At the end of the auction, all winning bidders will pay the same price for each of their items, which is the lowest qualifying (successful) bid. If there are more successful bids than items available, priority goes to the bidders who submitted their bids first.

In order to beat another bidder, a bid must simply have a higher total bid price per item than the other bids, regardless on the number of items that are being bid on.

For example, suppose the sponsor of the issuance is seeking to raise $10 billion in ten-year notes with a 5.125% coupon and in aggregate the bids are as follows:

$1.00 billion at 5.115%
$2.50 billion at 5.120%
$3.50 billion at 5.125%
$4.50 billion at 5.130%
$3.75 billion at 5.135%
$2.75 billion at 5.140%
$1.50 billion at 5.145%

In this example the % at high is 66.66%, meaning only $3 billion of the $4.5 billion at 5.130% will get bonds. Bids will be filled from the lowest yield (highest price) until the entire $10 billion has been raised. This auction will clear at a yield of 5.130%, and all bidders will pay the same amount. In theory, this feature of the Dutch auction format leads to more aggressive bidding as those who in this case bid 5.115% will receive the bonds at the higher yield (lower price) of 5.130%.

Source: Wiki

This auction method was pioneered by D&B during the Sasini bond issue and is used by govts worldwide. Is this the preferred method being used to issue bonds? The CBK governor is trully a maverick, looking to lower interest rates, but is this going to work? Read more:

http://www.businessdaily.../-/tpw41uz/-/index.html
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#2 Posted : Friday, April 23, 2010 6:52:52 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Dutch or not the auction has lowered rates on medium/long term paper. Check out the auction results for recently issued 10 year bond.

http://www.centralbank.g...onds/manualresults.aspx

The yield similiar to the re-open 10 year bond on secondary market just above 8.6%. And look at the new borrowing K9 billion (Uhuru needed 9b for referendum, there you go...spend it, if you dare or if u can).

Bids on the auction were 16b+10b on 91D bill, so equivalent to the KenGen bond all over again. So in addition to the 91 Tbill auction the govt has borrowed another 13.7 b ($178 mn) this week from the domestic market...our wallets never seem to be empty these days-the gift that keeps on giving.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
mkonomtupu
#3 Posted : Friday, April 23, 2010 7:41:15 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Scubidu, The yield of 8.6% is almost similar to the current Greek ten-year bond yield at 8.5%. I thought Kenya has better prospects than Greece in terms of debt to GDP and the budget deficit so our bond yield should be lower may be around 6%
VituVingiSana
#4 Posted : Friday, April 23, 2010 4:07:31 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
@mm - U forget... the Greeks have the Europeans backing them up coz of the Euro i.e. if these were the days of the Drachma... the yield would be much higher BUT the Germans will end up backing the Greeks coz of the Euro...

Kenya needs to join the Eurozone! ;-)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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