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lochaz-index
#4881 Posted : Wednesday, July 06, 2016 10:44:45 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
lochaz-index wrote:
Peak real estate? Four UK property funds have suspended investor redemption and in quick succession I might add. This is turning out to be quite the rout. Other funds face the same fate since fire sales can't be done fast enough to meet liquidity demands.

Financials are also in the firing line if things turn out to be nasty on this front. They just can't catch a break nowadays.

http://www.businessinsid...uk-property-fund-2016-7

With that development, some contagion to other markets is quite in order. I don't think the global real estate sector will shake off this one if it blows up. From the US, China, Australia and SSA(including KE) corrections of varying degrees are inevitable.

If the bonds get drawn into this sell-off...

I may have spoken too soon. The number of property funds that have gated investors is rising rapidly. It's now up two to six.
http://mobile.nytimes.co...s-after-brexit-vote.html
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Mainat
#4882 Posted : Thursday, July 07, 2016 6:35:01 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
On the contraire, I think GBP is heading towards 1.20.
UK property funds are signalling significant poor appetite for the UK economy generally post-Brexit and I think it's heading into a recession.

Only thing that will reverse the trend will be fast resolution of which EEA model the UK prefers.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
lochaz-index
#4883 Posted : Thursday, July 07, 2016 8:27:41 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
lochaz-index wrote:
[quote=lochaz-index]Peak real estate? Four UK property funds have suspended investor redemption and in quick succession I might add. This is turning out to be quite the rout. Other funds face the same fate since fire sales can't be done fast enough to meet liquidity demands.

Financials are also in the firing line if things turn out to be nasty on this front. They just can't catch a break nowadays.

http://www.businessinsid...uk-property-fund-2016-7

With that development, some contagion to other markets is quite in order. I don't think the global real estate sector will shake off this one if it blows up. From the US, China, Australia and SSA(including KE) corrections of varying degrees are inevitable.

If the bonds get drawn into this sell-off...

I may have spoken too soon. The number of property funds that have gated investors is rising rapidly. It's now up two to six.
http://mobile.nytimes.co...-after-brexit-vote.html[/quote]
Three more funds have joined the party by choosing to impose haircuts on their holdings instead of gating investors; all with the aim of dissuading them from cashing in.

http://www.reuters.com/a...roperty-lg-idUSL8N19T248
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#4884 Posted : Thursday, July 07, 2016 8:50:36 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Mainat wrote:
On the contraire, I think GBP is heading towards 1.20.
UK property funds are signalling significant poor appetite for the UK economy generally post-Brexit and I think it's heading into a recession.

Only thing that will reverse the trend will be fast resolution of which EEA model the UK prefers.

Both a weakened GBP and a UK recession were looming large. That is, irrespective of whether Britain chose to stay put or bail out of the EU, both events were a distinct possibility. Brexit just happened to make them more visible.

The property sector on the other hand was a bubble waiting to burst. It might keep chugging for a short while even after the gating fiasco, but I don't think there is that much gas left in the tank. Add a tax hike that was introduced last year and prices have nowhere to go but down.

By panicking/quitting the EU first, Britain has saved itself from some unnecessary headaches.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
murchr
#4885 Posted : Monday, July 11, 2016 7:36:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
lochaz-index
#4886 Posted : Friday, July 15, 2016 9:27:15 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Corporate defaults are on course to match the GFC high. This crisis is still in slow motion and barely visible to investors. High corporate debt/ebidta ratios will crush businesses once the deleveraging process gathers any form of momentum. http://www.zerohedge.com...-financial-crisis-record
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
murchr
#4887 Posted : Sunday, July 17, 2016 10:32:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
lochaz-index
#4888 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2016 8:54:52 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Bail-in or bail-out or a hybrid of the two? The latter is more likely as a middle ground to placate Italy but still risks creating a financial meltdown which could in turn morph into a political one thanks to haircuts on subordinate bondholders. http://www.bloomberg.com...sis-backed-by-top-court

The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
hisah
#4889 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2016 6:01:50 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
lochaz-index wrote:
Bail-in or bail-out or a hybrid of the two? The latter is more likely as a middle ground to placate Italy but still risks creating a financial meltdown which could in turn morph into a political one thanks to haircuts on subordinate bondholders. http://www.bloomberg.com...sis-backed-by-top-court


German debt securities that yield less than the ECB’s minus 0.4 deposit rate have grown to more than 60 percent, based on a $1.13 trillion Bloomberg German bond index. That means they’re ineligible for the purchases. Analysts from UBS Group AG and SEB AB are estimating the central bank may run out of German targets within six months, and as soon as August, unless the rules are broadened.

ECB Fast Exhausting German Bonds for QE Buying as Yields Tumble

Euroland is in great fix. One can't envy them.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
lochaz-index
#4890 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2016 8:46:54 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
hisah wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Bail-in or bail-out or a hybrid of the two? The latter is more likely as a middle ground to placate Italy but still risks creating a financial meltdown which could in turn morph into a political one thanks to haircuts on subordinate bondholders. http://www.bloomberg.com...sis-backed-by-top-court


German debt securities that yield less than the ECB’s minus 0.4 deposit rate have grown to more than 60 percent, based on a $1.13 trillion Bloomberg German bond index. That means they’re ineligible for the purchases. Analysts from UBS Group AG and SEB AB are estimating the central bank may run out of German targets within six months, and as soon as August, unless the rules are broadened.

ECB Fast Exhausting German Bonds for QE Buying as Yields Tumble

Euroland is in great fix. One can't envy them.

Joining the BoJ freak train heading to ran out of monetizing space. Some bubble they have created here. The coming bond collapse will be one for the archives.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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