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KenolKobil vs. EA Portland?
kenyamoja
#1 Posted : Friday, April 23, 2010 5:15:51 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 3/26/2010
Posts: 10
Location: chicago, il
I've had my mind on these two for a while and I want to jump in for the medium term abt 5-7 yrs. Now, good wazurians, any insights on the more profitable of either?
I'm looking at both capital gains and dividends btwn now and 2017!!!!
A MAN FOREWARNED IS A MAN FOREARMED
sparkly
#2 Posted : Friday, April 23, 2010 5:35:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Kenoil. Portland has a history of loss making in the profitable cement sector. Management lethargy i think. Kenoil had a bad spell but is back in the black. Kenoil continues to grow in the region and with the exit of multi-nationals who knows...
Life is short. Live passionately.
guru267
#3 Posted : Friday, April 23, 2010 5:44:56 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
KENOL KOBIL all the way... i mean just look at their aggressive expansion strategy... if one was to look at global players stock picks they are all bullish on oil marketing firms because a global recovery will lead to boom in oil prices and who benefits most... KENOL KOBIL

for every dollar rise per barrel of oil Kenol Kobil adds about 1% to their EPS and with oil projected to be 200$ plus in two years there's only one direction for the counter and that is up....

EA portland will also benefit hugely from Kenyas infrastructure boom that is going on hence will do well.. but it wont compare to Kenol Kobil's perfomance....

be warned Kenol Kobil is very highly exposed to recessions....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Horton
#4 Posted : Friday, April 23, 2010 9:50:28 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
Both good choices....In the past, didnt like EAPCC, but i understand, they are switching to coal from fossil fuel for their kilns and manufacturing processes and that should save them approx Kshs. 1B per year. The problems with both companies are similar ie High competition.

KK also has very depressed NM, which is typical of oil marketers however, this should double due to lower finance costs & prudent management. Also I expect them to announce the KPC award any time now...which will quintuple(5 times) its earnings.....or spread across a few years and have a doubling effect on the EPS YoY.
youcan'tstopusnow
#5 Posted : Friday, April 23, 2010 12:30:39 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Kenyamoja, you consider 5-7 yaers medium term? To others (including me) that is LOOOOOOOOOOONG! Anyway, Kenol Kobil is way better. Their expansion into the region and beyond is commendable. Portland is facing too much competition. But given the chance I would pick Total (at 30-35 bob) over Kenol anyday. This is the time to accumulate on it before it shoots. Its acquisition of Caltex/Chevron was a good deal
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Friday, April 23, 2010 4:00:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
@KenyaMoja - Good thinking with the 'longer-term' thinking instead of the typical short-term nonsense most Kenyans have...

KK looks good... great management... lakini biwott family is major owner... another moi era crook
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
2012
#7 Posted : Friday, April 23, 2010 4:13:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
KK, I think you should seriously consider other counters if you're looking that far eg KQ, SCOM, KCB and KPLC. A lot of grey area in kplc but that 10B from WB and the untapped rural might blow this stock over the roof especially if the new constitution is passed.

BBI will solve it
:)
sparkly
#8 Posted : Friday, April 23, 2010 7:22:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
...I would pick Total (at 30-35 bob) over Kenol anyday. This is the time to accumulate on it before it shoots. Its acquisition of Caltex/Chevron was a good deal

your name is also a loooooong one lol, but anyway the caltex acq was made through financing by the parent company Total Outmere, which was issued with preference shares. How much of the benefits accruing to the ordinary shareholders, you can only tell after factoring the pref div. My guess is that the deal was skewed to favour the pref shareholder/ parent company over the other ordinary shareholders.
Life is short. Live passionately.
kenyamoja
#9 Posted : Saturday, April 24, 2010 1:03:24 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 3/26/2010
Posts: 10
Location: chicago, il
@2012 I have KQ, SCOM & KPLC. I want one more from the industrials to balance my portfolio. Thanks wazurians for your tips. It seems KK beats EAPCC. However I have been wondering abt their massive expansion, I hope they do not pull an uchumi move on me.
A MAN FOREWARNED IS A MAN FOREARMED
Horton
#10 Posted : Saturday, April 24, 2010 7:33:41 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
uchumi had negative shareholder equity due to years of accumulated losses.... KK has a NAV of 79.5 which is basically current price so ur getting a p:b of 1...so no comparison there
Horton
#11 Posted : Saturday, April 24, 2010 3:12:04 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Kenyamoja, you consider 5-7 yaers medium term? To others (including me) that is LOOOOOOOOOOONG! Anyway, Kenol Kobil is way better. Their expansion into the region and beyond is commendable. Portland is facing too much competition. But given the chance I would pick Total (at 30-35 bob) over Kenol anyday. This is the time to accumulate on it before it shoots. Its acquisition of Caltex/Chevron was a good deal


YCSUN--why would u say the caltex acquisition is a good deal? Total overpaid, increase their debt levels to disproportionate levels, paying over 11% in interest due to the acquisition, Chevron kenya was a loss making entity even when most marketers were having their best years, they paid premium price to the asset value & they are basically diluting the ordinary shareholder(quite similar to the cadbury acquisition by kraft foods) . The only advantage i could see here is synergy for total.

Also total have been quite lethargic in making these "synergies" work for them...case in point, rebranding of stations in key areas eg westlands is not yet done
Gordon Gekko
#12 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 6:58:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
EAPC seems to have gone out of control yesterday, more of the same today?
Wa_ithaka
#13 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 7:10:07 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Kenyambili-why not Carbacid for your industrial portfolio?
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
ProverB
#14 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 7:16:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
kenyamoja wrote:
I've had my mind on these two for a while and I want to jump in for the medium term abt 5-7 yrs. Now, good wazurians, any insights on the more profitable of either?
I'm looking at both capital gains and dividends btwn now and 2017!!!!


Dude/duddete...
what system of analysis are you using to determine what you have? delink thinking from company and stick to that system..

e.g low p/e (or preferably low psr), ROE atleast 15 % per year..(don't consider asset base since both have very different asset requirements) debt-equity ratio, cash...

you have a seven year window..Yes but analyse again once a year..to make sure that your invested principle is doing as expected.. this means bearing all factors there are going to be some years EAPC is the better share to have...and some years Kenol is the better pick..change your portfolio accordingly...ignore company..stick to your investment strategy..eg i buy only those counters with an average ROE>17% over last 3 years, PSR<1.2..etc etc..and reevaluate portfolio in last week of march..if what i have is out of sync..i look for way out of it...if i find a new counter i missed last year..i buy...my buying is spread..on average over 6 weeks...my selling is on block..

our market is jus too small.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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