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lochaz-index
#4871 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2016 7:36:28 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
hisah wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
With Brexit triggered I thought the establishment/powers-that-be would try to downplay its impact just like they ignored the Greece vote last year but with Cameron's resignation it appears there is no eject button on this one. A pro-brexit campaigner takes over (Boris) and steers the ship vs the murky waters of the EU.

The EU will have to eat humble pie here if an amicable exit and subsequent engagement solutions are to materialize in the future. The Euro and EU will have very strong headwinds in their path. The pound is not solid but in the race against the euro, the latter is the ugly sister.

I fancy anti-EU sentiments going mainstream now. Countries that have been on the receiving end of EU's austerity measures should now view an exit and/or an outright defiance of Brussels a lot more favorably.

Italy and Spain have their banking mess to deal with. Spain elections come up shortly and a major decision at the ECJ falls due next month on the floor mortgage-rate clauses. Italy's PM may have to embrace the anti-EU stance if he is to save face and probably the economy. The ECB's solution on this has been to extend and pretend as exemplified in its decision to grant an extension(18 months) to the deadline on % sovereign debt held by local banks otherwise the Italians would have had it rough.

These two countries and how they handle their economies will be pivotal coz I don't see the banks dodging a serious meltdown in both. Couple that with the NIRP executed in most EU countries and the ensuing turmoil will be of epic proportions(other than banks;pension funds and insurance companies get to have their time in the cleaners)

Other concerns that have been stewing under the radar for example the dollar and euro pegs, junk bonds etc may reach crisis levels as the flight to quality gathers momentum. There is also an outside chance that the IMF could pull the plug on the Greece negotiations since the perfect smoke screen is up and running.

Have a look at euroland stock indices. FTSE recovered from its worst one day selloff to finish stronger than the others! The crowd won't believe it when FTSE will start setting all time highs soon! Spectacular political fallout is what awaits eurozone members.

Brexit ain't a crisis in the strict sense of the word. It is merely a spark that will ignite an inferno. The real crisis will pop up in the Euro zone banks since most are an accident waiting to happen.

Collapse of the banks is what will break the junk bond and sovereign debt markets. If the euro and EU will not be toast by then, they will join the sinking ship.

Most investors are still trying to weigh the consequences of an exit forgetting a chain of events that led to the exit in the first place.

The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
hisah
#4872 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2016 9:12:07 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
With Brexit triggered I thought the establishment/powers-that-be would try to downplay its impact just like they ignored the Greece vote last year but with Cameron's resignation it appears there is no eject button on this one. A pro-brexit campaigner takes over (Boris) and steers the ship vs the murky waters of the EU.

The EU will have to eat humble pie here if an amicable exit and subsequent engagement solutions are to materialize in the future. The Euro and EU will have very strong headwinds in their path. The pound is not solid but in the race against the euro, the latter is the ugly sister.

I fancy anti-EU sentiments going mainstream now. Countries that have been on the receiving end of EU's austerity measures should now view an exit and/or an outright defiance of Brussels a lot more favorably.

Italy and Spain have their banking mess to deal with. Spain elections come up shortly and a major decision at the ECJ falls due next month on the floor mortgage-rate clauses. Italy's PM may have to embrace the anti-EU stance if he is to save face and probably the economy. The ECB's solution on this has been to extend and pretend as exemplified in its decision to grant an extension(18 months) to the deadline on % sovereign debt held by local banks otherwise the Italians would have had it rough.

These two countries and how they handle their economies will be pivotal coz I don't see the banks dodging a serious meltdown in both. Couple that with the NIRP executed in most EU countries and the ensuing turmoil will be of epic proportions(other than banks;pension funds and insurance companies get to have their time in the cleaners)

Other concerns that have been stewing under the radar for example the dollar and euro pegs, junk bonds etc may reach crisis levels as the flight to quality gathers momentum. There is also an outside chance that the IMF could pull the plug on the Greece negotiations since the perfect smoke screen is up and running.

Have a look at euroland stock indices. FTSE recovered from its worst one day selloff to finish stronger than the others! The crowd won't believe it when FTSE will start setting all time highs soon! Spectacular political fallout is what awaits eurozone members.

Brexit ain't a crisis in the strict sense of the word. It is merely a spark that will ignite an inferno. The real crisis will pop up in the Euro zone banks since most are an accident waiting to happen.

Collapse of the banks is what will break the junk bond and sovereign debt markets. If the euro and EU will not be toast by then, they will join the sinking ship.

Most investors are still trying to weigh the consequences of an exit forgetting a chain of events that led to the exit in the first place.


Agreed. The euro zombie banks will implode in a NIRP environment! were it not for ECB supporting the bond market, liquidity vacuum would have imploded the market! The party is just starting. The lethal cocktails are yet to be served!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
murchr
#4873 Posted : Tuesday, June 28, 2016 4:07:04 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#4874 Posted : Tuesday, June 28, 2016 6:33:00 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:

Perfect! Aligning accordingly as I expected. US was downgraded back in 2011... Strong usd and a spectacular bull became the result... This is why I keep saying the majority is being setup on the wrong side of brexit yet again! UK is a buy for those that can see the market magicians tricks! By 2018 it'll be clear. I remain a FTSE bull in this turmoil, which is a nice planting session smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#4875 Posted : Wednesday, June 29, 2016 9:26:26 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
murchr wrote:

Perfect! Aligning accordingly as I expected. US was downgraded back in 2011... Strong usd and a spectacular bull became the result... This is why I keep saying the majority is being setup on the wrong side of brexit yet again! UK is a buy for those that can see the market magicians tricks! By 2018 it'll be clear. I remain a FTSE bull in this turmoil, which is a nice planting session smile

FTSE 100 closes above pre-BREXIT level
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
alutacontinua
#4876 Posted : Wednesday, June 29, 2016 10:04:01 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
Should be interesting to see the NFP numbers coming out this Friday....all we need now is a disappointing print to push the expected USD rate hike further away....market is now/has started pricing in more stimulus....interesting times ahead
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
lochaz-index
#4877 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2016 11:22:58 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
hisah wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
A chronology on the possibility of Deutsche Bank being the next Lehman debacle. Explains why Germany has been treating Greece with kid gloves and the non-default shenanigans. Implausible derivatives to Germany GDP ratio thrown in for good measure.

Top billing for the hiring of former Lehman fixed income honcho.

http://notquant.com/is-d...e-bank-the-next-lehman/

Deutsche bank Glencore headlines coming soon and market turmoil...


http://www.bloomberg.com...er-market-amid-pullback

Deutsche Bank and credit suisse axed as Belgian primary dealers.


http://www.bloomberg.com...capacity-of-1-1-billion

Deutsche bank issuing a couple of rebuttals on its balance sheet position. Add the fact that they have openly decried negative rates by the ECB and BoJ...that lehmann scenario is playing out almost to perfection.

Credit Suisse is quickly following the same path. Turmoil.

Schaeuble says he has no concerns over Deutsche Bank.

When govt officials say don't panic, it's time to PANIC!


Deutsche Bank just happened to fail a fed stress test and the IMF is now labeling it the biggest risk to the global financial system.

If I am reading this right, the international monetarists are ready to switch off the life support machine for Deutsche Bank. Perfect timing with the perfect scapegoat aka brexit. Credit suisse is at #3.

http://www.zerohedge.com...global-financial-system

The Lehman crisis will be dwarfed in comparison.

The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
hisah
#4878 Posted : Friday, July 01, 2016 8:21:32 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
FTSE 100 continues to shock the crowd as it posts the best week since 2011 while erasing all the brexit losses and continues heading to new highs! The short squeeze was always going to be very painful for the crowd. If you live in the market long enough you start noticing the market magicians obvious tricks. Market manipulation is a science they practice diligently! Get used to it if you're to survive in this casino!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#4879 Posted : Tuesday, July 05, 2016 9:16:31 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena the oldest surviving bank in the world is definitely going to the grave! Italy financial troubles rocking the markets badly.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
lochaz-index
#4880 Posted : Wednesday, July 06, 2016 7:23:14 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Peak real estate? Four UK property funds have suspended investor redemption and in quick succession I might add. This is turning out to be quite the rout. Other funds face the same fate since fire sales can't be done fast enough to meet liquidity demands.

Financials are also in the firing line if things turn out to be nasty on this front. They just can't catch a break nowadays.

http://www.businessinsid...uk-property-fund-2016-7

With that development, some contagion to other markets is quite in order. I don't think the global real estate sector will shake off this one if it blows up. From the US, China, Australia and SSA(including KE) corrections of varying degrees are inevitable.

If the bonds get drawn into this sell-off...
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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