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Mumias sugar prospects
ProverB
#1 Posted : Monday, April 12, 2010 12:39:16 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
..excellent 1st half results...in an environment were 6 months portend extreme probabilities... what are the chances full year will reflect the 500+ % growth??
are the chances solid enough to warrant getting in now considering price has kind of stabilised??
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
guru267
#2 Posted : Monday, April 12, 2010 12:52:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the following months will be good but not anywhere near 500%... one has to consider that sugar prices have fallen 35% from their peak in december last year and secondly the 560% growth in profits was as a result of very low base in 2008...

though i still remain very bullish on the share price considering its future mergers/takeovers and increase in power generation...

i bought heavily between 9.2-9.8bob
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
ProverB
#3 Posted : Monday, April 12, 2010 1:02:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
our market tends to react more to huge profit comparisons rather than overall value..so fo traders..i guess it remains a buy for awhile..most longtermers need it to get to 16 to break even..meaning a substantial volume remains held between now and 15Bob..a tidy profit that would be.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
stock.enigma
#4 Posted : Monday, April 12, 2010 1:05:50 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/14/2009
Posts: 244
I expect this share to be trading at sh16 by July. If you invest now, you can easily make 50% in three months. However, remember the decision is yours and this contaributor takes no responsibility on your devisions.
TTT
#5 Posted : Tuesday, April 13, 2010 10:49:36 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/16/2009
Posts: 15
put sugar in your tea!
Y
#6 Posted : Tuesday, April 13, 2010 8:07:59 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/8/2010
Posts: 7
Location: Kenya
Watch your sugar intake as you watch the price of mumia stock.
Please don't put more sugar in your tea..... it's effects are significantly visible in the diabetics in our communities.
young
#7 Posted : Tuesday, April 13, 2010 9:00:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
For Speculation purposes it would have paid off for Stocksmaster to wait and exit from Mumias in a few months time at 16 plus bob;
It would have been good ride from 5 Plus to 16 plus bob.

Personally I consider Mumias a junk stock
not witstanding her recent foray into power generation.
It went from 2 for 1 bonus at 16 bob to 3 bob in 2008 and it is gradually climbing back.

With apologies to KQ stock fans, I consider it junk, rising a few years and falling back. It is rising again. This is typical of airline stocks in any market. One negative news can set the stock tumbling to its lows and it takes long to recover.

The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Agra
#8 Posted : Thursday, April 15, 2010 12:02:55 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/22/2007
Posts: 96
Location: Agra, India
Mumias has strong fundamental and i wouldnt trade it for KCB which has reached its peak and unable to fight competion from rivals.
It's easy for investors to get emotional and prejudiced when trading, but computers don't
Gordon Gekko
#9 Posted : Tuesday, April 20, 2010 11:25:01 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Is the sugar slowly getting sweeter or is it my sweet tooth?
stock.enigma
#10 Posted : Tuesday, April 20, 2010 11:43:41 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/14/2009
Posts: 244
P1: "More sugar please!!!
P2: Which sugar?
P1: Mumias Sugar, "a tradition of leadership and excellence"
marketHEAD
#11 Posted : Tuesday, April 20, 2010 12:39:27 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/26/2010
Posts: 35
Location: nairobi
possibility of the stock hitting 16 - 17 bob by july is high i think, considering the year ends june 30
Success is 20 percent skills and 80 percent strategy.
cnn
#12 Posted : Tuesday, April 20, 2010 1:18:33 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
Half year EPS,.68.A better second half and full year EPS 1.4.Knock off 30% from that in biological assets gains to be left with earnings derived from operations.That gives a full year PE of 11.5 at current prices and a dividend yield of 3.5%.So unless the market is factoring possible acquisitions it is getting expensive but that is just me and hey its a bulls market.
PKoli
#13 Posted : Tuesday, April 20, 2010 1:25:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@cnn.

Have you factored in proceeds from the Co-gen plant. Better revenues expected in the 2nd half since 1st half they had a lot of operational challenges. I also thought they received an upward tariff revision a few months ago.
Njung'e
#14 Posted : Tuesday, April 20, 2010 1:32:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
pkoli,
You are saying things the other way round.First half operations were near perfect while in the second half,rain has been a serious challenge.I guess they could be off target by kindu 10K metric tonnes while sugar prices are coming down.ther isn't so much to factor in from C-gen given the heavy penalties they are incurring from KPLC....my two mang'otore.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
PKoli
#15 Posted : Tuesday, April 20, 2010 1:51:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@Njunge

Thanks for your corrections. I think the challenges should be from the factory aspect of the cane. In the 1st half they had some issues with the Co-gen plant which they rectified.

They do not suffer any penalties from the Co-gen plant since the power purchase agreement is based on energy and not plant availability. The more energy they send to the grid the more money they get.

Any how a p/e of 10 is good for Mumias
guru267
#16 Posted : Tuesday, April 20, 2010 2:56:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
guys the market is factoring in a number of things including the $300million acquisiton spree starting with Nzoia and the increase of the very high margin (80%) power generation capacity to 50MW from 38MW by next year... institutions are on a buying frenzy on this counter because it is CHEAP!!

http://www.standardmedia...=14&j=&m=&d=
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Njung'e
#17 Posted : Wednesday, April 21, 2010 10:51:07 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Pkoli,
You may need to check your facts once more.The PPA is based on plant availability.
@Jguru,
50Mw next year??...I highly doubt.What i know fo dead is that ethanol production might be possible by Sept 2011.An increase in power production is only possible by two means.modifying the current mills turbines to VF drives and thus conserving on steam....or...increasing the milling capacity and therfore,bagasse output.The second option is most viable but long term while the first one is a factor of efficieny rather than "generation".
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
Njung'e
#18 Posted : Wednesday, April 21, 2010 11:52:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
Ooops!!....up close to 9% today.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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