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directional forecast
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karasinga
#101 Posted : Saturday, May 07, 2016 12:33:39 PM
Rank: Veteran

You have been a member since:: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
Spikes wrote:
karasinga wrote:
nashx wrote:
karasinga wrote:
@ nashx

KEGN
Kegn started its wave up from a low of 5.4 on 26th dec 2015. It had just completed its fifth impulse wave down from a high of 11 dated 13th oct 2016. The five impulse wave up to a high of 6.9 dated 8th feb 2016. This formed wave 1. It retraced 61.8% to a low of 6 forming a regular flat pattern this is generally a level acceptable for wave 2. This low formed a good entry point to ride a five impulse wave that was a must come forming wave 3. A high of 8.25 formed wave three. A retracement followed to a low of 7.4 which was exactly 38.2% a level accepted as wave 4.

Where are we.
Kegn is making wave 5 and most likely an extended wave 5.

Volume at price
Kegn last candle has found a good support as shown below


Expectation
if the wave count is right, kegn might have the last leg of five wave up before a substantial retracement follows.
The series of wave 5 might terminate at either
Target 1=10
Target 2=11(major gann level around this number @ 11 and a strong trendline)
Target 3= 13.8-14.45((major gann level around this number @ 13.6 and 14.6 and a strong trendline)


STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


Very good analysis karasinga...hope I had your awesome skills...So in conclusion there's still an upside to the share price based on current prices?

most likely.



@Karasinga I have captured a powerful phrase on your analysis. 'Where we are now...'


@spikes. my principle, unity is power and share information with no strings attached. if you are a sole ranger in this highly manipulated market,trust me you will be just food to the market. i believe there are many like me,here at wazua, struggling to get a piece of this cake. as they say united we stand divided we fall. I urge wazuan to share their analysis or any information they might have and help us see this market from all sorts of corners.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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karasinga
#102 Posted : Saturday, May 07, 2016 1:28:08 PM
Rank: Veteran

You have been a member since:: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
@snipermnoma

BBK
With the available data, bbk started its downtrend on 22nd august 2014 at a high of 18.45. the low of 16.05 on 11th dec 2014 made either wave A OR 1. A 61.8% retracement to a high of 17.85 on 2nd feb 2015 making either wave A OR 2. With that structure, the expectation was Impulse Wave C down or wave 3 was to come. As shown below, bbk completed either wave( 3 or 1 of c) on 16th oct 2015 @ alow of 11.5. A 50% correction to a high of 14.5 as on 8th jan 2016 followed.


Where are we.
If the wave count is right, Bbk is making either
1. Wave 3 of c or
2. The last wave, wave 5(high probability)

So far an extended wave 3(in red) about end @around 9.5 and a small correction will follow to a high of at or around 11.(an aggressive swing trader might take advantage)
Expectation
If the high of 14.5 made on 8th jan 2016 completed wave 4, then a wave of this nature (in green) will eventual be realized.

Targets
Tentative bbk bottom(subject to change) will be @ either
Target 1 = 9
Target 2= 8.4
Target 3= 7.5(high probability coz both major gann level @ 7.4 and symmetry @ 7.5 are forming a cluster)
Target 4= 6.7
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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  | | Edit by user: Sunday, May 08, 2016 6:58 AM | Reason: Not specified
nashx
#103 Posted : Saturday, May 07, 2016 1:48:16 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/28/2014
Posts: 188
Location: Nairobi
Bbk at 6 Bob that's scary for some us with a weighted average purchase price of 10.9. Thought it cheap at 10...Any way one can always average down
Offering my personal finance knowledge for free
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snipermnoma
#104 Posted : Sunday, May 08, 2016 4:38:05 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
watchlist (not in any order)
1. nse
2. hafr
3. knre
4. fahari
5. sasn
6. bamb
7. coop
8. kegn
9. eqt
10.keno
11. lkl
12. uchm

waiting for correction
1. arm

waiting for final leg
1. msc
2. port
3. bbk
4. fire


How low is the final leg of bbk anticipated to go? From the chart looks like support is 10.50 from Nov 2011 and that looks like it will be taken out.


@snipermnoma
i am limited by lack of historical data. currently almost all my analysis are based on 1 year historical data. if you or anyone is willing to share data in excel format I will greatly appreciate. In doing so, i believe, will help followers of this thread see market better. my email address kkarasinga@gmail.com


I do not have the raw data so what I typically do is use mystockskenya and investing.com. For example here is the barclays chart: http://www.investing.com/equities/barclays-kenya
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karasinga
#105 Posted : Sunday, May 15, 2016 8:54:54 AM
Rank: Veteran

You have been a member since:: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
karasinga wrote:
nashx wrote:
karasinga wrote:
@ nashx

KEGN
Kegn started its wave up from a low of 5.4 on 26th dec 2015. It had just completed its fifth impulse wave down from a high of 11 dated 13th oct 2016. The five impulse wave up to a high of 6.9 dated 8th feb 2016. This formed wave 1. It retraced 61.8% to a low of 6 forming a regular flat pattern this is generally a level acceptable for wave 2. This low formed a good entry point to ride a five impulse wave that was a must come forming wave 3. A high of 8.25 formed wave three. A retracement followed to a low of 7.4 which was exactly 38.2% a level accepted as wave 4.

Where are we.
Kegn is making wave 5 and most likely an extended wave 5.

Volume at price
Kegn last candle has found a good support as shown below


Expectation
if the wave count is right, kegn might have the last leg of five wave up before a substantial retracement follows.
The series of wave 5 might terminate at either
Target 1=10
Target 2=11(major gann level around this number @ 11 and a strong trendline)
Target 3= 13.8-14.45((major gann level around this number @ 13.6 and 14.6 and a strong trendline)


STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


Very good analysis karasinga...hope I had your awesome skills...So in conclusion there's still an upside to the share price based on current prices?

most likely.



@Karasinga I have captured a powerful phrase on your analysis. 'Where we are now...'


@spikes. my principle, unity is power and share information with no strings attached. if you are a sole ranger in this highly manipulated market,trust me you will be just food to the market. i believe there are many like me,here at wazua, struggling to get a piece of this cake. as they say united we stand divided we fall. I urge wazuan to share their analysis or any information they might have and help us see this market from all sorts of corners.


first my apologies to wazuans who have been following kegn directional forecast. We are all learning. my earlier prediction never involved alternative wave count which made me overlook that possibility. (this tells me NEVER to analyse without involving alternative wave count). i welcome anyone's opinion concerning prior forecasts.

following last week's events, I want to update kegn elliott wave analysis.


WHY IS THIS SO.
Kegn had a combination of corrective waves W(zigzag)-X-Y(regular flat) as shown above. The high of 9 printed on 22nd april 2016 completed either wave(A of 4 or 4). A downtrend started to the latest low of 7 as on 10th may 2016.

Where are we
Kegn is either making wave B OF 4 or 1 of 5. Wave B in combination (like we have in our case) usually retraces 38-50% of wave A. are we there, yes. Do I buy and ride wave C OF 4(five waves) coming, WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION that wave B of 4 is over.
Let’s wait to see what market gives us

STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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  | | Edit by user: Sunday, May 15, 2016 8:59 AM | Reason: Not specified
mkate_nusu
#106 Posted : Wednesday, June 15, 2016 6:19:31 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/30/2016
Posts: 332
Location: Kayole
karasinga where art though?
KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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karasinga
#107 Posted : Thursday, June 16, 2016 7:21:20 AM
Rank: Veteran

You have been a member since:: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
mkate_nusu wrote:
karasinga where art though?

@ mkate nusu.
here I am.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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karasinga
#108 Posted : Thursday, June 16, 2016 6:03:25 PM
Rank: Veteran

You have been a member since:: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
mkate_nusu wrote:
karasinga where art though?

@ mkate nusu.
here I am.


Have been doing some homework here and there to equip me with, hopefully, an edge to face Mr. market objectively. I am looking forward to be back and make some posts.

may we all have profitable trades.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, June 16, 2016 6:06 PM | Reason: Not specified
enyands
#109 Posted : Thursday, June 16, 2016 7:32:51 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,301
Location: kenya
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mkate_nusu wrote:
karasinga where art though?

@ mkate nusu.
here I am.


Have been doing some homework here and there to equip me with, hopefully, an edge to face Mr. market objectively. I am looking forward to be back and make some posts.

may we all have profitable trades.



When you do load us with the cartoons for picks .
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karasinga
#110 Posted : Thursday, June 16, 2016 10:36:40 PM
Rank: Veteran

You have been a member since:: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147

enyands wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mkate_nusu wrote:
karasinga where art though?

@ mkate nusu.
here I am.


Have been doing some homework here and there to equip me with, hopefully, an edge to face Mr. market objectively. I am looking forward to be back and make some posts.

may we all have profitable trades.



When you do load us with the cartoons for picks .


enyands, I am and believe everyone is still learning. what do you mean by " When you do load us with the cartoons for picks"
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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