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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
VituVingiSana
#1821 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 8:01:31 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@murchr

Seems diesel is the 'better' fuel as far as 'energy' is concerned
http://www.fool.com/inve...r-fuel-and-vehicle.aspx

Recent advances in low-emission engines despite the VW crisis should make diesel more palatable going forward. Maintenance is key for diesel engines, the matatus belching black smoke are improperly maintained. In many "Western" [eg USA, UK] countries, all vehicles over a certain age have to go for emission testing. I doubt 95% of Kenyan matatus of 4+ years can pass this test!

"Consumers may think that because of the improved fuel efficiency a diesel provides, it's a better choice for the environment. That's not entirely true: diesel vehicles produce dirty emissions, and our nation's more strict emissions regulations are among the reasons the vehicles aren't as common in the U.S. as they are in Europe. While today's diesel cars are much cleaner than in decades past, some of the emissions include carcinogens, soot, and nitrous oxide -- if you drive significantly more miles in the city and believe in taking care of the environment, a diesel may not be for you.

One pro for diesel engines is that they don't use spark plugs or distributors, which means there is no need for ignition tune-ups. On the flip side, diesels need to be regularly maintained or they can require extensive repairs, and diesel mechanics work at a much more expensive rate."

"Ultimately, if you're driving between 7,500 and 10,000 miles annually it'll be difficult to save enough on fuel costs to justify a diesel purchase. If you drive significantly more miles than average, have a lopsided amount of miles driven on the highway rather than in the city, or are looking into a vehicle that requires premium gasoline, a diesel option is certainly a good one to consider further."

No wonder diesel lorries and pick-ups are preferred coz of the significant mileage they travel in a year. Nairobi-Mombasa is 300 miles. One return trip a week = 50 x 300 x 2 = 30,000 miles.


Agreed, but the VW scandal kinda killed the "clean diesel" dream.

Postponed not dead. It's not the firm firm or technology to have stumbled and then recovered. If anything, this may spur the development of diesel engines by other firms.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
The Great
#1822 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2016 8:28:08 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/9/2015
Posts: 233
U guys need to desensitise yourself with the environment, sociopolitical health and the rest. Business is business. If diesel is cheaper, thats the way to go. If it pollutes the air, too bad. U more than make up for it with your yearly tax deductible donations to charities(good marketing) and have your CEO plant trees in the mau in front of 100 cameras.
"Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."
The Great
#1823 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2016 8:33:19 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/9/2015
Posts: 233
We growth, profits, dividends. All the CEOs are qualified professionals. Two companies in the same industry with widely varied figures. No corruption to speak of. Do you ever stop to count their fleet and efi emissions? All we all do is load up more of the shares. Business is business
"Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."
The Great
#1824 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2016 8:35:11 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/9/2015
Posts: 233
I mean we only want to hear that a company is minting money
"Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."
lochaz-index
#1825 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2016 10:41:22 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
VituVingiSana wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@lochaz - A 100 bps reduction is peanuts. The lending rates are still in 18-24% for most loans. When GoK issued 30bn in TAX-FREE bonds in May 2016, why would a bank lend to (most) customers at anything less than 20% APR?

Yes, it is hardly much. But should have been a positive signal sentiment wise, resulting in a bounce on the indices albeit shallow and short-lived. The fact that the market didn't even blink says a lot.

Short-term thinking isn't it? Perhaps folks have become smarter and don't take actions that "result in a bounce on the indices albeit shallow and short-lived" anymore.

Systemic malaise is the culprit here and judging by the budget summary presented, things will move from bad to worse. Treasury is still powering through with an expansionary budget(elections in mind) on the back of dwindling revenue collections. There is a lot less wriggle room for increasing taxes and it almost always ends up being counterproductive in a downturn. That leaves debt(especially domestic) to do the heavy lifting. KES permitting, even a massive rate cut won't do the trick this time.


A few posts earlier weren't you the one who said a 100bps rate cut is a stimulant?

Not at all. My thoughts build on each other. The first rate cut drew a blank reaction instead of it signaling a more accommodating monetary policy going forward...That says we have much bigger problems to deal with and rate cuts are not adequate or helpful in that regard.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Metasploit
#1826 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2016 11:10:43 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
SAFARICOM is going to set an all time high.

The 17.50 resistance is broken and there is no supply all the way

Path of least resistance remains upwards

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
hisah
#1827 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2016 11:37:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Metasploit wrote:
SAFARICOM is going to set an all time high.

The 17.50 resistance is broken and there is no supply all the way

Path of least resistance remains upwards

Overshoot targets 19.75 - 20.00. Stated back in April.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Spikes
#1828 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2016 11:52:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
hisah wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
SAFARICOM is going to set an all time high.

The 17.50 resistance is broken and there is no supply all the way

Path of least resistance remains upwards

Overshoot targets 19.75 - 20.00. Stated back in April.


If by Fri this week 20/- is hit, it will come down crashing to 15/-. Just like a pendulum behaviour.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
instinct
#1829 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2016 12:57:38 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
in other news foreigners seem to be trooping back..
hisah
#1830 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2016 2:06:16 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mnandii wrote:


And USDKES performs as I stated several months ago! I said KES would strengthen vs USD yet the consensus here at wazua was heavily tilted against me. smile

Now we wait to see the 'rationalization' that fundamentalists will come up with!

Elliott and the markets is the best predictor of fundamentals...Prechter.

Applause Applause

But on the long term timeframes USDKES head past 110. Until capital stops rushing back into USD I don't see how KES or other currencies will fight off that strength.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
lochaz-index
#1831 Posted : Wednesday, June 08, 2016 8:40:54 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Funny market of late...gaining or losing decimal points while safcom is racing to all time highs.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Spikes
#1832 Posted : Wednesday, June 08, 2016 10:04:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
lochaz-index wrote:
Funny market of late...gaining or losing decimal points while safcom is racing to all time highs.



Safaricom is playing the big league of neutralising the bear.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
Spikes
#1833 Posted : Thursday, June 09, 2016 6:58:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Spikes wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Funny market of late...gaining or losing decimal points while safcom is racing to all time highs.



Safaricom is playing the big league of neutralising the bear.



Lets wait today's aggregate response of NSE after 2016/2017 budget reading.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
instinct
#1834 Posted : Thursday, June 09, 2016 3:03:18 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
Spikes wrote:
Spikes wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Funny market of late...gaining or losing decimal points while safcom is racing to all time highs.



Safaricom is playing the big league of neutralising the bear.



Lets wait today's aggregate response of NSE after 2016/2017 budget reading.



The shilling has been stable for 5months and the most profitable fixed income security is offering 9% net of taxes. Turnover at the exchange are at crazy levels and the market has gained(marginaly) for the past 3 sessions. With the agreement between Uhuru and baba on IEBC and the reading of the budget, the market is looking up. Are you in or are you out? Kosa uchekwe!
mlennyma
#1835 Posted : Thursday, June 09, 2016 3:30:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,184
Location: nairobi
instinct wrote:
Spikes wrote:
Spikes wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Funny market of late...gaining or losing decimal points while safcom is racing to all time highs.



Safaricom is playing the big league of neutralising the bear.



Lets wait today's aggregate response of NSE after 2016/2017 budget reading.



The shilling has been stable for 5months and the most profitable fixed income security is offering 9% net of taxes. Turnover at the exchange are at crazy levels and the market has gained(marginaly) for the past 3 sessions. With the agreement between Uhuru and baba on IEBC and the reading of the budget, the market is looking up. Are you in or are you out? Kosa uchekwe!

Your points are
very weak
to hold any water
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
lochaz-index
#1836 Posted : Monday, June 13, 2016 8:05:05 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
A pivotal two week period this is going to be. The proverbial watershed moment/turning point could have arrived already.

Some three CBs aka the Fed, BoJ and BoE have rate decisions to make this week. Their cheat code carousel ran out of steam the instance the fed upped it's rate in December and since then policy divergence has gotten starker by the day.

I would not rule out one upmanship/surprise move by either of them (especially the Fed and BoE) to try insulate themselves from any oncoming hits - currency war heats up a notch higher and goes mainstream. The ECB and BoJ are looking like sitting ducks with their own peculiar issues to deal with.

Next week comes the big one...Brexit vote. If the leave vote carries the day it will be the beginning of the end for the EU and Euro not to mention that the political fallout will be spectacular. Britain is better off quitting so if they choose to remain, or worse, vote is rigged in favor of a Bremain, its problems will only compound and show up later down the road.

All in all, a rate change and a Brexit will be very destabilizing for the global economy (advanced, emerging and frontier economies) and could be the sparks that ignites infernos all over the place. If not, the can is kicked down the road awaiting a bigger fuse.

It is also imperative to note that numerous joker cards are hidden and could be unleashed once the show gets rolling.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
hisah
#1837 Posted : Tuesday, June 14, 2016 4:30:29 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NSE20 6-month snapshot. Brace for lower lows... Pray Pray

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
instinct
#1838 Posted : Tuesday, June 14, 2016 7:52:34 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
hisah wrote:
NSE20 6-month snapshot. Brace for lower lows... Pray Pray



is 3200 possible? if 2011 is anything to go by?
hisah
#1839 Posted : Wednesday, June 15, 2016 12:26:48 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
instinct wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 6-month snapshot. Brace for lower lows... Pray Pray



is 3200 possible? if 2011 is anything to go by?

Near term is 3500 then 3300 and 3000 which will be an extremely oversold zone.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Aguytrying
#1840 Posted : Wednesday, June 15, 2016 12:59:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
instinct wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 6-month snapshot. Brace for lower lows... Pray Pray



is 3200 possible? if 2011 is anything to go by?

Near term is 3500 then 3300 and 3000 which will be an extremely oversold zone.


This bear has been slow and not involving all participants. But the shares taking a hit have really gone down
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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