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Winning Portfolio 2016 & beyond
nashx
#1 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2016 2:39:07 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/28/2014
Posts: 188
Location: Nairobi
The bear has presented some very good discounts... In the Wazua spirit I wanted to conduct a poll on what stocks one would hold for the best returns in the next 5 years.

My suggestion and average buying price (ABP) thus far:

KenRe: ABP 17.15
Kengen: ABP 6.49
Longhorn: ABP 4.38
Barclays: ABP 10.96
KPLC: ABP 11.49
Williamson: ABP 173

Others I'm considering Centum@38-40 Keno@ 9-10

And yes I admit my portfolio has a lot of govt exposure but I believe at current prices the risk make sense compared to the potential return
Offering my personal finance knowledge for free
MadDoc
#2 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2016 2:45:26 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/26/2015
Posts: 151
nashx wrote:
The bear has presented some very good discounts... In the Wazua spirit I wanted to conduct a poll on what stocks one would hold for the best returns in the next 5 years.

My suggestion and average buying price (ABP) thus far:

KenRe: ABP 17.15
Kengen: ABP 6.49
Longhorn: ABP 4.38
Barclays: ABP 10.96
KPLC: ABP 11.49
Williamson: ABP 173

Others I'm considering Centum@38-40 Keno@ 9-10

And yes I admit my portfolio has a lot of govt exposure but I believe at current prices the risk make sense compared to the potential return


Nice portfolio. I'd pick prolly one govt dominated stock. I differ on Barclays though. NIC or DTB would be better
nashx
#3 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2016 2:57:26 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/28/2014
Posts: 188
Location: Nairobi
I agree on NIC (good future) & DTB (quality management & loan book) ...I chose Barclays coz of the dividend yield. At current prices, if I was to advice you between NIC & DTB, NIC seems to have better entry price
Offering my personal finance knowledge for free
Ebenyo
#4 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2016 3:45:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
I only agree with you on kengen and kenya Re.
Longhorn: not a robust biz.Sell bks once a year.Low dividend payout.
Kplc: low dvd with govt bureacracy.
Barclays: uncertain future.
williamson: high PE
Centum:no dvd
kenol: low dvd payout.

My pick
Equity,safaricom,kengen,kcb
Towards the goal of financial freedom
nashx
#5 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2016 3:49:35 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/28/2014
Posts: 188
Location: Nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
I only agree with you on kengen and kenya Re.
Longhorn: not a robust biz.Sell bks once a year.Low dividend payout.
Kplc: low dvd with govt bureacracy.
Barclays: uncertain future.
williamson: high PE
Centum:no dvd
kenol: low dvd payout.

My pick
Equity,safaricom,kengen,kcb


Thanks for your contribution...although you should know Williamson has a very low forward PE and one of the highest dividend yields on the NSE.It's only downside is the seasonal nature of its business

Saf bought it at IPO price...never sold..though planning on exiting at 18 in near future
Offering my personal finance knowledge for free
guru267
#6 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2016 3:51:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
My NSE is:

Kengen: ABP 6.05
Kenya re: ABP 17.96
HFC: ABP 19.73

I am now looking for Centum entry point.
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
murchr
#7 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2016 4:10:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
guru267 wrote:
My NSE is:

Kengen: ABP 6.05
Kenya re: ABP 17.96
HFC: ABP 19.73

I am now looking for Centum entry point.


Guru why Centum?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Ericsson
#8 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2016 6:14:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,778
Location: NAIROBI
I am watching Barclays to see who buys the PLC stake.
If its an aggressive institutional investor or private equity jump in very fast like a fish is to water
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ebenyo
#9 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2016 7:17:32 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
Ericsson wrote:
I am watching Barclays to see who buys the PLC stake.
If its an aggressive institutional investor or private equity jump in very fast like a fish is to water

rumours have it that it will be bought by ABSA
Towards the goal of financial freedom
enyands
#10 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2016 7:27:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,301
Location: kenya
Ebenyo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
I am watching Barclays to see who buys the PLC stake.
If its an aggressive institutional investor or private equity jump in very fast like a fish is to water

rumours have it that it will be bought by ABSA


Happy to say that opus dei mentioned that cbk ain't no flower girls .cbk should be involved though I wish kenyans would be given a chance first before big investors .
Ericsson
#11 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2016 7:46:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,778
Location: NAIROBI
@Ebenyo
Barclays PLC owns 62.3% of ABSA so how will ABSA buy itself
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
S.Mutaga III
#12 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2016 8:26:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
I personally dont think we have hit rock bottom yet. I will wait out and strike when the iron is hot, right before or during the elections...I dont expect any meaningful gains on the index before the elections are over, but I might be wrong.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
nashx
#13 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2016 9:29:40 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/28/2014
Posts: 188
Location: Nairobi
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I personally dont think we have hit rock bottom yet. I will wait out and strike when the iron is hot, right before or during the elections...I dont expect any meaningful gains on the index before the elections are over, but I might be wrong.


Hope you held on to those KenyaRe shares...coz we are smiling and hope to smile till Ksh 36 is reached
Offering my personal finance knowledge for free
Ebenyo
#14 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2016 9:42:01 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
nashx wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I personally dont think we have hit rock bottom yet. I will wait out and strike when the iron is hot, right before or during the elections...I dont expect any meaningful gains on the index before the elections are over, but I might be wrong.


Hope you held on to those KenyaRe shares...coz we are smiling and hope to smile till Ksh 36 is reached

i would love to enter kenyaRe at 17.00.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Othelo
#15 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2016 11:16:47 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
Kenya Re, I&M, Bamburi & Safaricom.
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
Ericsson
#16 Posted : Tuesday, May 31, 2016 12:01:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,778
Location: NAIROBI
Kenya Re is a resilient stock even in times of bear runs.
Same to Safaricom nwdays
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#17 Posted : Tuesday, May 31, 2016 3:27:02 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
nashx wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I personally dont think we have hit rock bottom yet. I will wait out and strike when the iron is hot, right before or during the elections...I dont expect any meaningful gains on the index before the elections are over, but I might be wrong.


Hope you held on to those KenyaRe shares...coz we are smiling and hope to smile till Ksh 36 is reached

i would love to enter kenyaRe at 17.00.


I wait until they are at least 18.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#18 Posted : Tuesday, May 31, 2016 6:45:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Ebenyo wrote:
nashx wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I personally dont think we have hit rock bottom yet. I will wait out and strike when the iron is hot, right before or during the elections...I dont expect any meaningful gains on the index before the elections are over, but I might be wrong.


Hope you held on to those KenyaRe shares...coz we are smiling and hope to smile till Ksh 36 is reached

i would love to enter kenyaRe at 17.00.


What's the magic with 17? They were sub 10 just the other day.
Life is short. Live passionately.
S.Mutaga III
#19 Posted : Tuesday, May 31, 2016 7:16:28 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
sparkly wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
nashx wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I personally dont think we have hit rock bottom yet. I will wait out and strike when the iron is hot, right before or during the elections...I dont expect any meaningful gains on the index before the elections are over, but I might be wrong.


Hope you held on to those KenyaRe shares...coz we are smiling and hope to smile till Ksh 36 is reached

i would love to enter kenyaRe at 17.00.


What's the magic with 17? They were sub 10 just the other day.

I am currently not invested in stocks. I believe they will tie up my cash for a whole year before the elections. The best performing stock YTD is NSE at 30% which is still not attractive enough considering the risks in a bear market, hence my decision to stay away from stocks.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
Aguytrying
#20 Posted : Tuesday, May 31, 2016 8:09:47 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
S.Mutaga III wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
nashx wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I personally dont think we have hit rock bottom yet. I will wait out and strike when the iron is hot, right before or during the elections...I dont expect any meaningful gains on the index before the elections are over, but I might be wrong.


Hope you held on to those KenyaRe shares...coz we are smiling and hope to smile till Ksh 36 is reached

i would love to enter kenyaRe at 17.00.


What's the magic with 17? They were sub 10 just the other day.

I am currently not invested in stocks. I believe they will tie up my cash for a whole year before the elections. The best performing stock YTD is NSE at 30% which is still not attractive enough considering the risks in a bear market, hence my decision to stay away from stocks.


There's one big flaw with your assumption. You can't tell whether stocks will be lowest just before the elections..Remember what happened to stocks the year before the last elections? It's risky to time an event like that. You would rather buy when your price targets are breached. My 2 cents
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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