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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote: As you can see from the above cartoon, we bottomed in Jan at 3745, the bears having taken charge since March 2015 after we hit 5500 on the NSE20. Before that, the previous bottom was the Dec 2011 low of 3070 which gave way to the bull, made more vicious by the discovery of oil news in Q12012. They controlled the show for about 15 months, with a few corrections in between, eg after the swearing in of Uhuru in April 2013. Bank collapses will shift capital to Government stock and Equities from FDRs. A surge in Treasury bids will bring down yields hence my bottom call. Scom and Equity have both announced FY and Q12016 respectively and its now all systems go. We just need a spark akin to the Q12012 discovery of oil news and the bull will develop legs and run till August 2017, when i foresee a major correction after announcement of the major news. IMF and western envoys are beginning to lecture the opposition and its anyone's guess where they lean.....pointer to political stability in the run up to 2017 elections. Notice today's price movements and foreign interest in Mpesa and member and you don't want to be left out lamenting  #StockUp If indeed this is the bottom it would be a very unusual one. I just don't think it is. To me it seems like we are just about the halfway mark in this bear market. Probably a fake out of some kind is the more likely scenario that is playing out at this juncture. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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lochaz-index wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:As you can see from the above cartoon, we bottomed in Jan at 3745, the bears having taken charge since March 2015 after we hit 5500 on the NSE20. Before that, the previous bottom was the Dec 2011 low of 3070 which gave way to the bull, made more vicious by the discovery of oil news in Q12012. They controlled the show for about 15 months, with a few corrections in between, eg after the swearing in of Uhuru in April 2013. Bank collapses will shift capital to Government stock and Equities from FDRs. A surge in Treasury bids will bring down yields hence my bottom call. Scom and Equity have both announced FY and Q12016 respectively and its now all systems go. We just need a spark akin to the Q12012 discovery of oil news and the bull will develop legs and run till August 2017, when i foresee a major correction after announcement of the major news. IMF and western envoys are beginning to lecture the opposition and its anyone's guess where they lean.....pointer to political stability in the run up to 2017 elections. Notice today's price movements and foreign interest in Mpesa and member and you don't want to be left out lamenting #StockUp If indeed this is the bottom it would be a very unusual one. I just don't think it is. To me it seems like we are just about the halfway mark in this bear market. Probably a fake out of some kind is the more likely scenario that is playing out at this juncture. a close watch of top ten historical movers points out possibility of haircut in ranges of 30%. the market is strained within a narrow range. a sign of false stability. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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NSE20 currently testing support at the 3850 level turning the month negative. 4000 handle still remains a strong resistance level. The sooner the tight trading zone is resolved (3700 - 4000) the better. This bollinger squeeze will be strong considering the time taken to consolidate at this tight zone. Bollinger squeezes always warn of a sharp pending move - sharp plunge or sharp rally. Sharp plunge will unleash that hellish rollercoaster ride required to force the market to start basing out - large shakeout to throw out weak hands as ulcers bleed! If a sharp rally, I'll keep off for this support level is weak! That rally would be a fake out and would trap many and cause a sharper plunge as it collapses! Global market are also sideways since April as brexit looms. Two choices; pain now to finish off the bear or fake relief that will unleash a bigger bear! Let's see what the market chooses. If I could control it I'd go for option one for it's less painful! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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KRA puts rogue bankers on notice over insider loan taxesKRA wants to deny tax breaks on bad insider loans. The taxman wants his cut as govt debt piles up pressure on tax collection. Banks face mounting NPL pressure which will slash their profits. If they have a large size of insider NPLs the taxman still takes his cut and tells the banker to eat the losses. I see my lunatic call to short the banks will afterall roll in money by year end. Where is that banks ETF when you need one to short it? $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:NSE20 currently testing support at the 3850 level turning the month negative. 4000 handle still remains a strong resistance level. The sooner the tight trading zone is resolved (3700 - 4000) the better. This bollinger squeeze will be strong considering the time taken to consolidate at this tight zone. Bollinger squeezes always warn of a sharp pending move - sharp plunge or sharp rally. Sharp plunge will unleash that hellish rollercoaster ride required to force the market to start basing out - large shakeout to throw out weak hands as ulcers bleed! If a sharp rally, I'll keep off for this support level is weak! That rally would be a fake out and would trap many and cause a sharper plunge as it collapses!
Global market are also sideways since April as brexit looms.
Two choices; pain now to finish off the bear or fake relief that will unleash a bigger bear! Let's see what the market chooses. If I could control it I'd go for option one for it's less painful!
I've seen the weakness in the market. The fact that it's coming after so rosy earnings some of the big bluechips tells alot. I think it's option 1, I want it to be option 1 The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,184 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 currently testing support at the 3850 level turning the month negative. 4000 handle still remains a strong resistance level. The sooner the tight trading zone is resolved (3700 - 4000) the better. This bollinger squeeze will be strong considering the time taken to consolidate at this tight zone. Bollinger squeezes always warn of a sharp pending move - sharp plunge or sharp rally. Sharp plunge will unleash that hellish rollercoaster ride required to force the market to start basing out - large shakeout to throw out weak hands as ulcers bleed! If a sharp rally, I'll keep off for this support level is weak! That rally would be a fake out and would trap many and cause a sharper plunge as it collapses!
Global market are also sideways since April as brexit looms.
Two choices; pain now to finish off the bear or fake relief that will unleash a bigger bear! Let's see what the market chooses. If I could control it I'd go for option one for it's less painful!
I've seen the weakness in the market. The fact that it's coming after so rosy earnings some of the big bluechips tells alot. I think it's option 1, I want it to be option 1 the bear is threatening to consume our 2yrs plus still counting "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/11/2014 Posts: 228 Location: Nairobi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,184 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:NSE20 currently testing support at the 3850 level turning the month negative. 4000 handle still remains a strong resistance level. The sooner the tight trading zone is resolved (3700 - 4000) the better. This bollinger squeeze will be strong considering the time taken to consolidate at this tight zone. Bollinger squeezes always warn of a sharp pending move - sharp plunge or sharp rally. Sharp plunge will unleash that hellish rollercoaster ride required to force the market to start basing out - large shakeout to throw out weak hands as ulcers bleed! If a sharp rally, I'll keep off for this support level is weak! That rally would be a fake out and would trap many and cause a sharper plunge as it collapses!
Global market are also sideways since April as brexit looms.
Two choices; pain now to finish off the bear or fake relief that will unleash a bigger bear! Let's see what the market chooses. If I could control it I'd go for option one for it's less painful!
A slight comeback today "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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mlennyma wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 currently testing support at the 3850 level turning the month negative. 4000 handle still remains a strong resistance level. The sooner the tight trading zone is resolved (3700 - 4000) the better. This bollinger squeeze will be strong considering the time taken to consolidate at this tight zone. Bollinger squeezes always warn of a sharp pending move - sharp plunge or sharp rally. Sharp plunge will unleash that hellish rollercoaster ride required to force the market to start basing out - large shakeout to throw out weak hands as ulcers bleed! If a sharp rally, I'll keep off for this support level is weak! That rally would be a fake out and would trap many and cause a sharper plunge as it collapses!
Global market are also sideways since April as brexit looms.
Two choices; pain now to finish off the bear or fake relief that will unleash a bigger bear! Let's see what the market chooses. If I could control it I'd go for option one for it's less painful!
A slight comeback today Today the NSE20 index has missed 4000 handle as they were several greens. I declare this exchange haggard! John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/9/2015 Posts: 233
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Headache! "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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News on Kenya in the Western capitals are all negative due to demonstrations and violence yesterday.
Do you think this might trigger the bear plunge that some people have been expecting here?
Do you think It is time to take cover on some counters like mpesa bank?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,184 Location: nairobi
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Liv wrote:News on Kenya in the Western capitals are all negative due to demonstrations and violence yesterday.
Do you think this might trigger the bear plunge that some people have been expecting here?
Do you think It is time to take cover on some counters like mpesa bank? the whole world has become equally dangerous for investment by extremely dangerous groups leave alone this demos "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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mlennyma wrote:Liv wrote:News on Kenya in the Western capitals are all negative due to demonstrations and violence yesterday.
Do you think this might trigger the bear plunge that some people have been expecting here?
Do you think It is time to take cover on some counters like mpesa bank? the whole world has become equally dangerous for investment by extremely dangerous groups leave alone this demos
Do you understand the effect of the negative media narrative on anything African?
When violence takes place in the western world it is quickly explained and the problem localized and explained, the result is that the effect on business and investments is minimized. This is very different from when news of demonstration and violence happens in a country like kenya continuously.
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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Liv wrote:mlennyma wrote:Liv wrote:News on Kenya in the Western capitals are all negative due to demonstrations and violence yesterday.
Do you think this might trigger the bear plunge that some people have been expecting here?
Do you think It is time to take cover on some counters like mpesa bank? the whole world has become equally dangerous for investment by extremely dangerous groups leave alone this demos
Do you understand the effect of the negative media narrative on anything African?
When violence takes place in the western world it is quickly explained and the problem localized and explained, the result is that the effect on business and investments is minimized. This is very different from when news of demonstration and violence happens in a country like kenya continuously. We are stronger than we were 10 years ago. The news will fizzle away. Buggers cannot demonstrate forever. Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote: The rate cut is welcome. But from a global perspective it feels a bit rushed. Brexit event looms in a few weeks while the USD bulls are now regaining power. Should events unfold sharply, the cbr cut will look like a mistake as KES gets squeezed by USD. MPC should have held the rate until brexit unfolds. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote: The rate cut is welcome. But from a global perspective it feels a bit rushed. Brexit event looms in a few weeks while the USD bulls are now regaining power. Should events unfold sharply, the cbr cut will look like a mistake as KES gets squeezed by USD. MPC should have held the rate until brexit unfolds. Kenya overshoots domestic borrowing target by Sh100bn
The elephant in the room. The CB has blinked first by cutting cbr while gok has stayed put and refused to cut spending. KRA is behind collections and should expect the same this coming year. Gok is hoping against hope that donors and eurobond will plug those collection holes.
Strong usd will put the ice on eurobond. Cbr cut will weaken kes. Nobody is preparing for the next round of deflation effects that a strong usd is going to unleash.
When the usd pegs start breaking that reality check will strike hard. The recent euro/swiss peg break is just as small example of the chaos waiting to strike!
'Bidless' is going to become a common word...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote: The rate cut is welcome. But from a global perspective it feels a bit rushed. Brexit event looms in a few weeks while the USD bulls are now regaining power. Should events unfold sharply, the cbr cut will look like a mistake as KES gets squeezed by USD. MPC should have held the rate until brexit unfolds. Kenya overshoots domestic borrowing target by Sh100bn
The elephant in the room. The CB has blinked first by cutting cbr while gok has stayed put and refused to cut spending. KRA is behind collections and should expect the same this coming year. Gok is hoping against hope that donors and eurobond will plug those collection holes.
Strong usd will put the ice on eurobond. Cbr cut will weaken kes. Nobody is preparing for the next round of deflation effects that a strong usd is going to unleash.
When the usd pegs start breaking that reality check will strike hard. The recent euro/swiss peg break is just as small example of the chaos waiting to strike!
'Bidless' is going to become a common word...
Cbk and treasury still at loggerheads. Explains where the liquidity has been going to. Treasury plans hinge on hopes, hunches and guesses and Cbk is expected to clean up after its mess. If all the heat/sabre rattling coming from kra is anything to go by then they will miss their targets by quite some distance. No reprieve for borrowers either and the economy will continue limping. Euro bond or no euro bond? A rock and a hard place. Sub-prime sovereign debts spices up. The economy still gets knocked in the teeth and it will most likely be a slippery path from there...what with all the non-concessional borrowing, electioneering is already high in gear, tbill/bond yields acting up etc. Once capital inflows which have kept our BoP respectable head the other way we will be left naked(KES, reserves et al). The longer they keep kicking the can down the road the harder we will come crashing. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Liv wrote:mlennyma wrote:Liv wrote:News on Kenya in the Western capitals are all negative due to demonstrations and violence yesterday.
Do you think this might trigger the bear plunge that some people have been expecting here?
Do you think It is time to take cover on some counters like mpesa bank? the whole world has become equally dangerous for investment by extremely dangerous groups leave alone this demos
Do you understand the effect of the negative media narrative on anything African?
When violence takes place in the western world it is quickly explained and the problem localized and explained, the result is that the effect on business and investments is minimized. This is very different from when news of demonstration and violence happens in a country like kenya continuously. KE is okay for now. Threats to violence in the run up to elections will be restricted to Kisumu and Kibera with minimal disturbances at the coast and Western areas AND THESE HAVE TO A LARGE EXTENT ALREADY BEEN BAKED INTO THE PRICES. Watch the US campaigns. They will be the ugliest they have ever seen in years. Did you see the fracas at the Trump campaign rally in New Mexico?  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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@hisah and L.Index, read this.... http://www.businessdaily.../-/3b528oz/-/index.html
Interesting????? @SufficientlyP
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