Just looking at recent Kengen accounts and i have noted the following:

The Nyayo government totally ignored the energy sector and there were virtually no new projects brought online between 1988 and 2003. Between 2003 and 2011, Kengen installed 465MW, 200MW being stop-gap thermal projects.

Kengen is carrying out the 2008-2018 projects in two phases , Horizon 1 (700 MW) to be completed by 2015 and Horizon 2 (1,100 MW)to be completed by 2018.

Horizon one has delivered 270MW so far, 120MW thermal (Kipevu III) and 150MW from a combination of small green sources like wind, geothermal and hydro.

The flagship projects for Horizon 1, Olkaria IV and Olkaria I unit 4 and 5 are set to be commissioned in 2014 and will deliver 140MW each.

The main projects for Horizon 2 are: two further Olkaria projects (310MW), Kilifi coal plant (600MW) and a natural gas plant (300MW.

While the capital employed has balloned from KShs 95B to 150B in the last 5 years, the revenue averaged KShs 10.7B between 2007 and 2010. This only went up to 13B in 2011 when Kipevu III and the small green projects were commissioned.

The next major jump in revenue is not expected until 2015 when the 280MW Olkaria projects are commissioned. There will be a small increase in revenue in 2014 when Muhoroni Thermal (80MW) is commissioned.

GOK owns 70% of the company, nssf 1.3%. Of the 204,000 shareholders, 200,000 are Wanjikus owning 100-10,000 shares.

In conclusion Kengen is a capital hungry company carrying out projects for vision 2030. The company, while growing its assets is not likely to increase its earnings meaningfully till 2015.

The current "Wanjiku heavy" shareholding structure only gets excited by a growth in earnings and dividend.

The company does not have institutions who might get excited by the growth in assets, hence the reason why the company is trading at P/B of 0.3.

GOK obviously does not care for dividends but i foresee the company continuing with the KShs 0.5 Div per year policy, whether the money is borrowed or not, to appease Wanjiku.

Meanwhile Kengen has loans of KShs 68B as at 2011 and has capital commitments of KShs 153B. I think time is right for GOK to do the second IPO, possibly followed by a rights issue.

I don't expect major upwards price movements, driven by fundamentals before year 2015.

That's very true sparkly.
Retail investors will edge out themselves.
Institutional investors like the likes of NSSF,pension schemes,insurance companies