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Kengen success
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:enyands wrote:Realcement wrote:FINAL TIME
Let me emphasize and inform all of you that it is better to buy KENGEN at cheaper price after dilusion rather than the rights at 6.55.
Friday closing is even lower at 6.50.
There is no way KENGEM will not be below 4.00 bob between July and october.
It is however a reliable long term play (3 - 5 years) as EPS will be accelerating as more geothermal and other power sources is added to the national grid 2017 - 2020.
Do not say I did not tell you ? This guy above was somehow right. Remember the tsunami referral mentioned?  Realcement @Realcement. On HFCK I was a lone voice hear that it was overpriced, not many could see it. And it was significantly dilutive. On Kengen. I see price stagnation post rights a prolonged stagnation. I pray that the gava syndrome doesn't affect this one because that will send it towards the cousins Uchumi. KQ. Hang one kengen folks. Watching this from VERY far Government taking up its full entitlement of KenGen's Rights Issue amounting to Ksh.20,151,540,500
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:enyands wrote:Realcement wrote:FINAL TIME
Let me emphasize and inform all of you that it is better to buy KENGEN at cheaper price after dilusion rather than the rights at 6.55.
Friday closing is even lower at 6.50.
There is no way KENGEM will not be below 4.00 bob between July and october.
It is however a reliable long term play (3 - 5 years) as EPS will be accelerating as more geothermal and other power sources is added to the national grid 2017 - 2020.
Do not say I did not tell you ? This guy above was somehow right. Remember the tsunami referral mentioned? Realcement @Realcement. On HFCK I was a lone voice hear that it was overpriced, not many could see it. And it was significantly dilutive. On Kengen. I see price stagnation post rights a prolonged stagnation. I pray that the gava syndrome doesn't affect this one because that will send it towards the cousins Uchumi. KQ. Hang one kengen folks. Watching this from VERY far Government taking up its full entitlement of KenGen's Rights Issue amounting to Ksh.20,151,540,500 this is not news,there is no difference between government and kengen and this is not liquid money but mostly debt to equity conversion "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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The Kenyan government will convert 20.2 billion shillings ($200.4 million) of debt owed by the East African nation’s biggest electricity producer into equity as part of a rights offer that’s the largest in the region. The Kenya Electricity Generating Co. Ltd., known as KenGen, is asking investors for 28.8 billion shillings to help finance 720 megawatts of new production capacity over the next four years. Other shareholders apart from the government are expected to raise 8.6 billion shillings, Chief Executive Officer Albert Mugo said at the start of the cash call. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/21/2014 Posts: 100 Location: Ghana
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@Sparkly amd @All
Please dont get me wrong. KENGEN is a good stock on the long term. The timing and the rights price of 6.55 bob is wrong. They would have discounted it far less like 3 to 4 bob.
Since you have 30% portfolio holding in KENGEN a good advise is NOT to take your rights but to buy in the market at 4.00 bob or below in the coming months.
Going from 4 bob to 10 bob in 3 years time (post election risk) is better than 6.55 bob to 10 bob.
KENGEN management were NOT well advised by their transaction advisors.
Govt participation is not cash but conversion of debt to equity. What Kengen actually needs is cash for expansion in their wind and geothermal energy drive and of course hydro electricity , A LOT OF CASH.
They are trying to expand their capacity as they have a ready market as a monopology. They can even sale some power to EA neigbours.
In 5 years time your KENGEN will behave as safaricom, that downward swing for several month and systematic rise afterwards.
Buyers of KENGEN it is a long term play (but a good price) shoould be patient as you unlock greater value over time. Imagine from 4.00 bot to circa 18 bob in future.
My message is clear sir.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:The Kenyan government will convert 20.2 billion shillings ($200.4 million) of debt owed by the
East African nation’s biggest electricity producer into equity as part of a rights offer that’s the
largest in the region.
The Kenya Electricity Generating Co. Ltd., known as KenGen, is asking investors for 28.8 billion
shillings to help finance 720 megawatts of new production capacity over the next four years.
Other shareholders apart from the government are expected to raise 8.6 billion shillings, Chief
Executive Officer Albert Mugo said at the start of the cash call. in government companies you can hardly tell whether the debt was real or created,whether it yielded value or not,so they just want your money since their part is already spend "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/21/2014 Posts: 100 Location: Ghana
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Realcement wrote:@Sparkly amd @All
Please dont get me wrong. KENGEN is a good stock on the long term. The timing and the rights price of 6.55 bob is wrong. They would have discounted it far less like 3 to 4 bob.
Since you have 30% portfolio holding in KENGEN a good advise is NOT to take your rights but to buy in the market at 4.00 bob or below in the coming months.
Going from 4 bob to 10 bob in 3 years time (post election risk) is better than 6.55 bob to 10 bob.
KENGEN management were NOT well advised by their transaction advisors.
Govt participation is not cash but conversion of debt to equity. What Kengen actually needs is cash for expansion in their wind and geothermal energy drive and of course hydro electricity , A LOT OF CASH.
They are trying to expand their capacity as they have a ready market as a monopology. They can even sale some power to EA neigbours.
In 5 years time your KENGEN will behave as safaricom, that downward swing for several month and systematic rise afterwards.
Buyers of KENGEN it is a long term play (but a good price) shoould be patient as you unlock greater value over time. Imagine from 4.00 bot to circa 18 bob in future.
My message is clear sir. A word is enough for the wise. 2 for 1 dilusion is really a very big one when price is adjusted.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Realcement wrote:@Sparkly amd @All
Please dont get me wrong. KENGEN is a good stock on the long term. The timing and the rights price of 6.55 bob is wrong. They would have discounted it far less like 3 to 4 bob.
Since you have 30% portfolio holding in KENGEN a good advise is NOT to take your rights but to buy in the market at 4.00 bob or below in the coming months.
Going from 4 bob to 10 bob in 3 years time (post election risk) is better than 6.55 bob to 10 bob.
KENGEN management were NOT well advised by their transaction advisors.
Govt participation is not cash but conversion of debt to equity. What Kengen actually needs is cash for expansion in their wind and geothermal energy drive and of course hydro electricity , A LOT OF CASH.
They are trying to expand their capacity as they have a ready market as a monopology. They can even sale some power to EA neigbours.
In 5 years time your KENGEN will behave as safaricom, that downward swing for several month and systematic rise afterwards.
Buyers of KENGEN it is a long term play (but a good price) shoould be patient as you unlock greater value over time. Imagine from 4.00 bot to circa 18 bob in future.
My message is clear sir. @Realcement my position on Kengen was stated in August 2012. see the Olkaria thread and tell me what is NEW? Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:mlennyma wrote:The Kenyan government will convert 20.2 billion shillings ($200.4 million) of debt owed by the
East African nation’s biggest electricity producer into equity as part of a rights offer that’s the
largest in the region.
The Kenya Electricity Generating Co. Ltd., known as KenGen, is asking investors for 28.8 billion
shillings to help finance 720 megawatts of new production capacity over the next four years.
Other shareholders apart from the government are expected to raise 8.6 billion shillings, Chief
Executive Officer Albert Mugo said at the start of the cash call. in government companies you can hardly tell whether the debt was real or created,whether it yielded value or not,so they just want your money since their part is already spend Scary suggestion. That 21b was js fixed into the books
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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If the money is not raised, your power bill will go up. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/21/2014 Posts: 100 Location: Ghana
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OR
Are You not aware That when the rights is listed for trading in early July the 2:1 right Will translate to one third the Price? The 6.35 closing price of today Will ne listed zs 2.16 bob?
3 or 4 bob post listing price I have been advocating is a GENEROUS price. It can be mess
OR
Are not aware of the hype by KENGEN and stockbrokers it Is better to take up your rights to avoid your stocks holding in KENGEN being diluted?
AND OR
What Is dilution?
Is it not introducing more shares in a counter thus
REDUCING its ruling price and dividend?
SO
What are we talking about friends?
Is potential political risk not real?
Then why is the market dull irrespective of FY 15 STERLING performances of KCB, EQUITY, SAFARICOM and the likes?
Pole sana let me quote from VVS.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 969 Location: Kenya
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Realcement wrote:@Sparkly amd @All
Please dont get me wrong. KENGEN is a good stock on the long term. The timing and the rights price of 6.55 bob is wrong. They would have discounted it far less like 3 to 4 bob.
Since you have 30% portfolio holding in KENGEN a good advise is NOT to take your rights but to buy in the market at 4.00 bob or below in the coming months.
Going from 4 bob to 10 bob in 3 years time (post election risk) is better than 6.55 bob to 10 bob.
KENGEN management were NOT well advised by their transaction advisors.
Govt participation is not cash but conversion of debt to equity. What Kengen actually needs is cash for expansion in their wind and geothermal energy drive and of course hydro electricity , A LOT OF CASH.
They are trying to expand their capacity as they have a ready market as a monopology. They can even sale some power to EA neigbours.
In 5 years time your KENGEN will behave as safaricom, that downward swing for several month and systematic rise afterwards.
Buyers of KENGEN it is a long term play (but a good price) shoould be patient as you unlock greater value over time. Imagine from 4.00 bot to circa 18 bob in future.
My message is clear sir. The rights issue was a move to reduce debt by the company hence giving it more room for more debt for future projects...
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/15/2012 Posts: 29 Location: unimportant
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muandiwambeu wrote:nashx wrote:citymayor wrote:nashx wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Dear KenGen shareholders,
Pole sana.
VVS. For my own information someone educate me on what would be the potential implications to the share price if the rights were undersubcribed Section 3.5 of the IM: “A minimum of 65% of the Rights Issue is requires to be accepted for it to be declared successful. This implies that a minimum of 2,857,869,893 New Shares need to be taken up and fully paid for.” Government is taking up its full 70 % stake so whatever you decide to do(or not do) you are facing a massive dilution since the rights issue is already “technically” successful @citymayor Asante that was the kind of answer I was looking for... u should know your bedmate @citymayor. Gova's offered to convert wrong before the pie was put into the table and successfulness of such is not in question. the question is how will the 30% responded is the quiz. Gova does little of daily market price movements and if it does it would have save u by fronting a formidable ppt to save the stock price plunge being experienced. so, whoil is your bedmate here. could have arrangent the conversion privately here and save your heart the ache bumps. what a cruel cold treatment affair. look and see how your big bro got you monkeyed here. 70% is successful, so what about 30% that says what trades and at what price? what are they left felleling, .....shafted ofcoarse. @muandiwambeu overlooking the fact you are either striving to be a vernacular comic or we have to adapt to the incoherrent grammar, you do raise a valid point. Assuming the 30 % take up their rights in full or by selling the Nil rights in the market(price dip below rights complicates matters), I still expect a reasonable FY16EPS post rights to mitigate any serious effects on the shareprice on a fundamental perspective. Those feeling severely shafted are the fellows that bought into the share on FY15 announcements without looking into the books(cow fattening) and were unlucky to still be holding by rights issue book closure. That said, it's a solid company at the 'right' price for longterm investors The Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/15/2012 Posts: 29 Location: unimportant
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Realcement wrote:OR
Are You not aware That when the rights is listed for trading in early July the 2:1 right Will translate to one third the Price? The 6.35 closing price of today Will ne listed zs 2.16 bob?
3 or 4 bob post listing price I have been advocating is a GENEROUS price. It can be mess
OR
Are not aware of the hype by KENGEN and stockbrokers it Is better to take up your rights to avoid your stocks holding in KENGEN being diluted?
AND OR
What Is dilution?
Is it not introducing more shares in a counter thus
REDUCING its ruling price and dividend?
SO
What are we talking about friends?
Is potential political risk not real?
Then why is the market dull irrespective of FY 15 STERLING performances of KCB, EQUITY, SAFARICOM and the likes?
Pole sana let me quote from VVS. @Realcement unless these were bonus shares in question it is relative ignorance to divide the price by 3. someone will pay 6.55 for their rights how exactly their share will be worth a third of that price is perplexing. I enjoy your analysis in general though The Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Look we're in a bear market for now. What PE was kengen trading at before the rights was announced? what PE is kenya power trading at now. Use that to calculate the Price with the new EPS after dilution. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/31/2007 Posts: 303
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citymayor wrote:Realcement wrote:OR
Are You not aware That when the rights is listed for trading in early July the 2:1 right Will translate to one third the Price? The 6.35 closing price of today Will ne listed zs 2.16 bob?
3 or 4 bob post listing price I have been advocating is a GENEROUS price. It can be mess
OR
Are not aware of the hype by KENGEN and stockbrokers it Is better to take up your rights to avoid your stocks holding in KENGEN being diluted?
AND OR
What Is dilution?
Is it not introducing more shares in a counter thus
REDUCING its ruling price and dividend?
SO
What are we talking about friends?
Is potential political risk not real?
Then why is the market dull irrespective of FY 15 STERLING performances of KCB, EQUITY, SAFARICOM and the likes?
Pole sana let me quote from VVS. @Realcement unless these were bonus shares in question it is relative ignorance to divide the price by 3. someone will pay 6.55 for their rights how exactly their share will be worth a third of that price is perplexing. I enjoy your analysis in general though Good question there!!! I really wonder who would be selling at 4/= and why if the fundamentals remain the same.If that be the case why not sell now at a price above 4/=??
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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moneydust wrote:citymayor wrote:Realcement wrote:OR
Are You not aware That when the rights is listed for trading in early July the 2:1 right Will translate to one third the Price? The 6.35 closing price of today Will ne listed zs 2.16 bob?
3 or 4 bob post listing price I have been advocating is a GENEROUS price. It can be mess
OR
Are not aware of the hype by KENGEN and stockbrokers it Is better to take up your rights to avoid your stocks holding in KENGEN being diluted?
AND OR
What Is dilution?
Is it not introducing more shares in a counter thus
REDUCING its ruling price and dividend?
SO
What are we talking about friends?
Is potential political risk not real?
Then why is the market dull irrespective of FY 15 STERLING performances of KCB, EQUITY, SAFARICOM and the likes?
Pole sana let me quote from VVS. @Realcement unless these were bonus shares in question it is relative ignorance to divide the price by 3. someone will pay 6.55 for their rights how exactly their share will be worth a third of that price is perplexing. I enjoy your analysis in general though Good question there!!! I really wonder who would be selling at 4/= and why if the fundamentals remain the same.If that be the case why not sell now at a price above 4/=?? it can even go for 2bob depending on the market feelings and political climate "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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Meanwhile "The KenGen share has slipped below the discounted rights issue price of Sh6.55, dealing a potential blow to the offer as it makes it more attractive for investors to buy the stock in the open market" today's BD. There was a silent dove somewhere from Western Africa that warned. I'll wait for it at 3 a share
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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enyands wrote:Meanwhile "The KenGen share has slipped below the discounted rights issue price of Sh6.55, dealing a potential blow to the offer as it makes it more attractive for investors to buy the stock in the open market" today's BD. There was a silent dove somewhere from Western Africa that warned. I'll wait for it at 3 a share How much will you be investing once it hits 3  Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2007 Posts: 294
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sparkly wrote:enyands wrote:Meanwhile "The KenGen share has slipped below the discounted rights issue price of Sh6.55, dealing a potential blow to the offer as it makes it more attractive for investors to buy the stock in the open market" today's BD. There was a silent dove somewhere from Western Africa that warned. I'll wait for it at 3 a share How much will you be investing once it hits 3 wanachangisha pesa ya kuliwa na wazee
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