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Kengen success end 2019
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,476 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:enyands wrote:Realcement wrote:FINAL TIME
Let me emphasize and inform all of you that it is better to buy KENGEN at cheaper price after dilusion rather than the rights at 6.55.
Friday closing is even lower at 6.50.
There is no way KENGEM will not be below 4.00 bob between July and october.
It is however a reliable long term play (3 - 5 years) as EPS will be accelerating as more geothermal and other power sources is added to the national grid 2017 - 2020.
Do not say I did not tell you ? This guy above was somehow right. Remember the tsunami referral mentioned?  Realcement @Realcement. On HFCK I was a lone voice hear that it was overpriced, not many could see it. And it was significantly dilutive. On Kengen. I see price stagnation post rights a prolonged stagnation. I pray that the gava syndrome doesn't affect this one because that will send it towards the cousins Uchumi. KQ. Hang one kengen folks. Watching this from VERY far Government taking up its full entitlement of KenGen's Rights Issue amounting to Ksh.20,151,540,500 COOP 306,100 ABP 31.96, KEGN 112,100 ABP 10.64, MTNU 131,000 ABP 10.21
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:enyands wrote:Realcement wrote:FINAL TIME
Let me emphasize and inform all of you that it is better to buy KENGEN at cheaper price after dilusion rather than the rights at 6.55.
Friday closing is even lower at 6.50.
There is no way KENGEM will not be below 4.00 bob between July and october.
It is however a reliable long term play (3 - 5 years) as EPS will be accelerating as more geothermal and other power sources is added to the national grid 2017 - 2020.
Do not say I did not tell you ? This guy above was somehow right. Remember the tsunami referral mentioned? Realcement @Realcement. On HFCK I was a lone voice hear that it was overpriced, not many could see it. And it was significantly dilutive. On Kengen. I see price stagnation post rights a prolonged stagnation. I pray that the gava syndrome doesn't affect this one because that will send it towards the cousins Uchumi. KQ. Hang one kengen folks. Watching this from VERY far Government taking up its full entitlement of KenGen's Rights Issue amounting to Ksh.20,151,540,500 this is not news,there is no difference between government and kengen and this is not liquid money but mostly debt to equity conversion "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi
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The Kenyan government will convert 20.2 billion shillings ($200.4 million) of debt owed by the East African nation’s biggest electricity producer into equity as part of a rights offer that’s the largest in the region. The Kenya Electricity Generating Co. Ltd., known as KenGen, is asking investors for 28.8 billion shillings to help finance 720 megawatts of new production capacity over the next four years. Other shareholders apart from the government are expected to raise 8.6 billion shillings, Chief Executive Officer Albert Mugo said at the start of the cash call. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/21/2014 Posts: 100 Location: Ghana
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@Sparkly amd @All
Please dont get me wrong. KENGEN is a good stock on the long term. The timing and the rights price of 6.55 bob is wrong. They would have discounted it far less like 3 to 4 bob.
Since you have 30% portfolio holding in KENGEN a good advise is NOT to take your rights but to buy in the market at 4.00 bob or below in the coming months.
Going from 4 bob to 10 bob in 3 years time (post election risk) is better than 6.55 bob to 10 bob.
KENGEN management were NOT well advised by their transaction advisors.
Govt participation is not cash but conversion of debt to equity. What Kengen actually needs is cash for expansion in their wind and geothermal energy drive and of course hydro electricity , A LOT OF CASH.
They are trying to expand their capacity as they have a ready market as a monopology. They can even sale some power to EA neigbours.
In 5 years time your KENGEN will behave as safaricom, that downward swing for several month and systematic rise afterwards.
Buyers of KENGEN it is a long term play (but a good price) shoould be patient as you unlock greater value over time. Imagine from 4.00 bot to circa 18 bob in future.
My message is clear sir.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:The Kenyan government will convert 20.2 billion shillings ($200.4 million) of debt owed by the
East African nation’s biggest electricity producer into equity as part of a rights offer that’s the
largest in the region.
The Kenya Electricity Generating Co. Ltd., known as KenGen, is asking investors for 28.8 billion
shillings to help finance 720 megawatts of new production capacity over the next four years.
Other shareholders apart from the government are expected to raise 8.6 billion shillings, Chief
Executive Officer Albert Mugo said at the start of the cash call. in government companies you can hardly tell whether the debt was real or created,whether it yielded value or not,so they just want your money since their part is already spend "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/21/2014 Posts: 100 Location: Ghana
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Realcement wrote:@Sparkly amd @All
Please dont get me wrong. KENGEN is a good stock on the long term. The timing and the rights price of 6.55 bob is wrong. They would have discounted it far less like 3 to 4 bob.
Since you have 30% portfolio holding in KENGEN a good advise is NOT to take your rights but to buy in the market at 4.00 bob or below in the coming months.
Going from 4 bob to 10 bob in 3 years time (post election risk) is better than 6.55 bob to 10 bob.
KENGEN management were NOT well advised by their transaction advisors.
Govt participation is not cash but conversion of debt to equity. What Kengen actually needs is cash for expansion in their wind and geothermal energy drive and of course hydro electricity , A LOT OF CASH.
They are trying to expand their capacity as they have a ready market as a monopology. They can even sale some power to EA neigbours.
In 5 years time your KENGEN will behave as safaricom, that downward swing for several month and systematic rise afterwards.
Buyers of KENGEN it is a long term play (but a good price) shoould be patient as you unlock greater value over time. Imagine from 4.00 bot to circa 18 bob in future.
My message is clear sir. A word is enough for the wise. 2 for 1 dilusion is really a very big one when price is adjusted.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Realcement wrote:@Sparkly amd @All
Please dont get me wrong. KENGEN is a good stock on the long term. The timing and the rights price of 6.55 bob is wrong. They would have discounted it far less like 3 to 4 bob.
Since you have 30% portfolio holding in KENGEN a good advise is NOT to take your rights but to buy in the market at 4.00 bob or below in the coming months.
Going from 4 bob to 10 bob in 3 years time (post election risk) is better than 6.55 bob to 10 bob.
KENGEN management were NOT well advised by their transaction advisors.
Govt participation is not cash but conversion of debt to equity. What Kengen actually needs is cash for expansion in their wind and geothermal energy drive and of course hydro electricity , A LOT OF CASH.
They are trying to expand their capacity as they have a ready market as a monopology. They can even sale some power to EA neigbours.
In 5 years time your KENGEN will behave as safaricom, that downward swing for several month and systematic rise afterwards.
Buyers of KENGEN it is a long term play (but a good price) shoould be patient as you unlock greater value over time. Imagine from 4.00 bot to circa 18 bob in future.
My message is clear sir. @Realcement my position on Kengen was stated in August 2012. see the Olkaria thread and tell me what is NEW? Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,476 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:mlennyma wrote:The Kenyan government will convert 20.2 billion shillings ($200.4 million) of debt owed by the
East African nation’s biggest electricity producer into equity as part of a rights offer that’s the
largest in the region.
The Kenya Electricity Generating Co. Ltd., known as KenGen, is asking investors for 28.8 billion
shillings to help finance 720 megawatts of new production capacity over the next four years.
Other shareholders apart from the government are expected to raise 8.6 billion shillings, Chief
Executive Officer Albert Mugo said at the start of the cash call. in government companies you can hardly tell whether the debt was real or created,whether it yielded value or not,so they just want your money since their part is already spend Scary suggestion. That 21b was js fixed into the books COOP 306,100 ABP 31.96, KEGN 112,100 ABP 10.64, MTNU 131,000 ABP 10.21
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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If the money is not raised, your power bill will go up. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/21/2014 Posts: 100 Location: Ghana
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OR
Are You not aware That when the rights is listed for trading in early July the 2:1 right Will translate to one third the Price? The 6.35 closing price of today Will ne listed zs 2.16 bob?
3 or 4 bob post listing price I have been advocating is a GENEROUS price. It can be mess
OR
Are not aware of the hype by KENGEN and stockbrokers it Is better to take up your rights to avoid your stocks holding in KENGEN being diluted?
AND OR
What Is dilution?
Is it not introducing more shares in a counter thus
REDUCING its ruling price and dividend?
SO
What are we talking about friends?
Is potential political risk not real?
Then why is the market dull irrespective of FY 15 STERLING performances of KCB, EQUITY, SAFARICOM and the likes?
Pole sana let me quote from VVS.
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