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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Realcement wrote:FINAL TIME
Let me emphasize and inform all of you that it is better to buy KENGEN at cheaper price after dilusion rather than the rights at 6.55.
Friday closing is even lower at 6.50.
There is no way KENGEM will not be below 4.00 bob between July and october.
It is however a reliable long term play (3 - 5 years) as EPS will be accelerating as more geothermal and other power sources is added to the national grid 2017 - 2020.
Do not say I did not tell you ? You can't spell dilution but you want us to believe you can predict the price of Kengen? smh Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2014 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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Realcement wrote:FINAL TIME
Let me emphasize and inform all of you that it is better to buy KENGEN at cheaper price after dilusion rather than the rights at 6.55.
Friday closing is even lower at 6.50.
There is no way KENGEM will not be below 4.00 bob between July and october.
It is however a reliable long term play (3 - 5 years) as EPS will be accelerating as more geothermal and other power sources is added to the national grid 2017 - 2020.
Do not say I did not tell you ? Is there any other technical explanation of the price crush post rights? I believe the dilution bit is already factored in the current price, same script as UCHUMI rights case where Ciano at some point accused some crafty traders of causing the price to tank so as to buy many shares. Well for my case I din't find time to take up my rights but I might not be very wrong starting to load now.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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Realcement wrote:FINAL TIME
Let me emphasize and inform all of you that it is better to buy KENGEN at cheaper price after dilusion rather than the rights at 6.55.
Friday closing is even lower at 6.50.
There is no way KENGEM will not be below 4.00 bob between July and october.
It is however a reliable long term play (3 - 5 years) as EPS will be accelerating as more geothermal and other power sources is added to the national grid 2017 - 2020.
Do not say I did not tell you ? Pastor, soothsayer or you spooky 
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/21/2014 Posts: 100 Location: Ghana
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@Sparkly
Dilusion for dilution is just a simple typo error.
You are fanatically and emotionally attached to Kengen counter !!!
This is not the best approach. You seem to criticize anyone that hold contrary opinion
about KENGEN ?
Please this is an international and open forum, take it easy. Time will tell.
Hope you have not forgotten your experts that were fanatically attached to Home Africa, Uchumi etc. Kengen case is better the fundamentals are good but the right price is TOO HIGH.
We foreigners ahave experience in different markets and are conscious of every bob we spend.
Thanks and regards my Bro or Sis
Please dont fall in love with any counter to start to be so defensive ?
With Regards sir or ma.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Realcement wrote:@Sparkly
Dilusion for dilution is just a simple typo error.
You are fanatically and emotionally attached to Kengen counter !!!
This is not the best approach. You seem to criticize anyone that hold contrary opinion
about KENGEN ?
Please this is an international and open forum, take it easy. Time will tell.
Hope you have not forgotten your experts that were fanatically attached to Home Africa, Uchumi etc. Kengen case is better the fundamentals are good but the right price is TOO HIGH.
We foreigners ahave experience in different markets and are conscious of every bob we spend.
Thanks and regards my Bro or Sis
Please dont fall in love with any counter to start to be so defensive ?
With Regards sir or ma. My attachment is understandable since I have money invested in Kengen. On criticizing your contrary opinion, of course I have the right to criticize an opinion not based on fundamental or technical facts. You can't just throw figures like 4 bob without workings and expect us to swallow. Who are you to tell me not to fall in love with a share where I hold 30% of my portfolio? Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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It's out of positive critisim that brings well of us. People from tsunami indonesia didn't read nature's signs ie birds migration and sudden change in animal behaviours days before tsunami. If they did some lives would have been saved.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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enyands wrote:It's out of positive critisim that brings well of us. People from tsunami indonesia didn't read nature's signs ie birds migration and sudden change in animal behaviours days before tsunami. If they did some lives would have been saved. A fellow with multiple Wazua handles pretends to be in Ghana and expects us to take him seriously?? Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/21/2014 Posts: 100 Location: Ghana
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Last year HFC rights price was 30 bob.
My Kenyan friend a stock broker in D&B thoughtI was
Wrong. The dilution was 1 for 2. Now the price is
20 bob. If wrote this last year those that whole
large chunk of HFC would have abused me.
. We fail to understand that in KENGEN after the
2 for 1, the price will be adjusted downwards to
at least half the prevailing price before it finds
Its true level.You don't need to be super expert to know
this.
One of your guys I respect is @hisah as he is not
emotionally attached to any counter even he hold some.
That is the way to go in this 21st century.
If you have large chunk of mumias and you are emotionally
attached to it, it will only lead you to high blood
Pressure as I reward.
My friends in Kenya tend to overlook the looming
political risk as 2017 approaches.You tend not to
look at the past impact of political risk on stocks
Performance as election year approaches?
Again don't crucify me dear friend @sparkly if you locate typo
error again as my mother tongue is ewe not English.
Note: I did not take my HFC rights but bought at 19.80 after rights
instead of 30 bob.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Realcement wrote:Last year HFC rights price was 30 bob.
My Kenyan friend a stock broker in D&B thoughtI was
Wrong. The dilution was 1 for 2. Now the price is
20 bob. If wrote this last year those that whole
large chunk of HFC would have abused me.
. We fail to understand that in KENGEN after the
2 for 1, the price will be adjusted downwards to
at least half the prevailing price before it finds
Its true level.You don't need to be super expert to know
this.
One of your guys I respect is @hisah as he is not
emotionally attached to any counter even he hold some.
That is the way to go in this 21st century.
If you have large chunk of mumias and you are emotionally
attached to it, it will only lead you to high blood
Pressure as I reward.
My friends in Kenya tend to overlook the looming
political risk as 2017 approaches.You tend not to
look at the past impact of political risk on stocks
Performance as election year approaches?
Again don't crucify me dear friend @sparkly if you locate typo
error again as my mother tongue is ewe not English.
Note: I did not take my HFC rights but bought at 19.80 after rights
instead of 30 bob.
Refer to my signature Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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sparkly wrote:Realcement wrote:Last year HFC rights price was 30 bob.
My Kenyan friend a stock broker in D&B thoughtI was
Wrong. The dilution was 1 for 2. Now the price is
20 bob. If wrote this last year those that whole
large chunk of HFC would have abused me.
. We fail to understand that in KENGEN after the
2 for 1, the price will be adjusted downwards to
at least half the prevailing price before it finds
Its true level.You don't need to be super expert to know
this.
One of your guys I respect is @hisah as he is not
emotionally attached to any counter even he hold some.
That is the way to go in this 21st century.
If you have large chunk of mumias and you are emotionally
attached to it, it will only lead you to high blood
Pressure as I reward.
My friends in Kenya tend to overlook the looming
political risk as 2017 approaches.You tend not to
look at the past impact of political risk on stocks
Performance as election year approaches?
Again don't crucify me dear friend @sparkly if you locate typo
error again as my mother tongue is ewe not English.
Note: I did not take my HFC rights but bought at 19.80 after rights
instead of 30 bob.
Refer to my signature @realcement i wish there is a way I can have some abemu dru and some kobi. back on topic time will tell .personally IL wait and see how the cartoon behaves post rights
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/15/2012 Posts: 29 Location: unimportant
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moneydust wrote:Grand wrote:citymayor wrote:citymayor wrote:Ebenyo wrote:@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price? @Ebenyo based on the tripling of share capital through the rights issue, you can basically divide FY 2016 expected earning by 3 to see what worth you will be having for a single share depending on what price you decide to get in. The golden rule is to trigger fundamentally and enter or exit technically. My math is abit rusty and I welcome any criticism from the community. Assuming a generous expected FY2016 EPS of 7.20 based on the HY 2015 EPS of 2.58, this would translate to an EPS of 2.40 after factoring in the rights shares, or a 54% drop in EPS yoy. The question you should ask yourself is how much you are willing to pay for that amount of earning which many investors would differ broadly based on what we call the PE ratio. It is currently trading at a trailing PE of 1.35 Going forward Kengen is likely to issue a profit warning. If you look at the FY 2015 results you will see huge one off items like tax incentives and other comprehensive income from revaluation of assets. But that said, this is a strong stock fundermentally and good value for money from P.E, P/B, Wide moat etc. Profit Warning?? I highly doubt unless something happens to their generating capacity.Profit before tax for the whole of 2015 was 8.6B while for the half year 2016 is 8.3B.In the half year results the company actually paid full tax leading to an EPS of 2.58. Like I have said before there is too much pessimism clouding the analysis of this share..This is a gem to have at the current prices. @moneydust not a profit warning in the conventional sense per se and no they wont issue one. Following commissioning of a new generating plant the company qualifies for tax subsidies/incentives which is what @Grand is pointing out in the 2015 reports. FY profit after tax 2016 is unlikely to be marginally different from 2015 and with the new shares I doubt the story gets any better on dividends, which is basically what any rational investor is looking out for when investing in a utilty firm(unless u have deep pockets looking to make a takeover offer). it's interesting to see investors taking risks based on emotions. Happy Investing  The Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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citymayor wrote:moneydust wrote:Grand wrote:citymayor wrote:citymayor wrote:Ebenyo wrote:@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price? @Ebenyo based on the tripling of share capital through the rights issue, you can basically divide FY 2016 expected earning by 3 to see what worth you will be having for a single share depending on what price you decide to get in. The golden rule is to trigger fundamentally and enter or exit technically. My math is abit rusty and I welcome any criticism from the community. Assuming a generous expected FY2016 EPS of 7.20 based on the HY 2015 EPS of 2.58, this would translate to an EPS of 2.40 after factoring in the rights shares, or a 54% drop in EPS yoy. The question you should ask yourself is how much you are willing to pay for that amount of earning which many investors would differ broadly based on what we call the PE ratio. It is currently trading at a trailing PE of 1.35 Going forward Kengen is likely to issue a profit warning. If you look at the FY 2015 results you will see huge one off items like tax incentives and other comprehensive income from revaluation of assets. But that said, this is a strong stock fundermentally and good value for money from P.E, P/B, Wide moat etc. Profit Warning?? I highly doubt unless something happens to their generating capacity.Profit before tax for the whole of 2015 was 8.6B while for the half year 2016 is 8.3B.In the half year results the company actually paid full tax leading to an EPS of 2.58. Like I have said before there is too much pessimism clouding the analysis of this share..This is a gem to have at the current prices. @moneydust not a profit warning in the conventional sense per se and no they wont issue one. Following commissioning of a new generating plant the company qualifies for tax subsidies/incentives which is what @Grand is pointing out in the 2015 reports. FY profit after tax 2016 is unlikely to be marginally different from 2015 and with the new shares I doubt the story gets any better on dividends, which is basically what any rational investor is looking out for when investing in a utilty firm(unless u have deep pockets looking to make a takeover offer). it's interesting to see investors taking risks based on emotions . Happy Investing When investing in stocks risk is inversely proportional to price, all other things held constant. An emotional investor follows the herd, sells a losing stock and buys a rising stock. A logical investor sells the bull and buys the bear. An emotional investor thinks dropping shares will drop forever and rising shares will rise forever. The sage of Omaha says "buy when there is blood on the streets" Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/15/2012 Posts: 29 Location: unimportant
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Akenyan2014 wrote:Realcement wrote:FINAL TIME
Let me emphasize and inform all of you that it is better to buy KENGEN at cheaper price after dilusion rather than the rights at 6.55.
Friday closing is even lower at 6.50.
There is no way KENGEM will not be below 4.00 bob between July and october.
It is however a reliable long term play (3 - 5 years) as EPS will be accelerating as more geothermal and other power sources is added to the national grid 2017 - 2020.
Do not say I did not tell you ? Is there any other technical explanation of the price crush post rights? I believe the dilution bit is already factored in the current price, same script as UCHUMI rights case where Ciano at some point accused some crafty traders of causing the price to tank so as to buy many shares. Well for my case I din't find time to take up my rights but I might not be very wrong starting to load now. The explanation is in the CASHFLOW statements (if you are good with financials) and the 6 billion shares that will be floating in the market soon. Technicals at this point are only helpful for speculative purposes until the rights process is completed and the shares start trading. The Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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citymayor wrote:moneydust wrote:Grand wrote:citymayor wrote:citymayor wrote:Ebenyo wrote:@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price? @Ebenyo based on the tripling of share capital through the rights issue, you can basically divide FY 2016 expected earning by 3 to see what worth you will be having for a single share depending on what price you decide to get in. The golden rule is to trigger fundamentally and enter or exit technically. My math is abit rusty and I welcome any criticism from the community. Assuming a generous expected FY2016 EPS of 7.20 based on the HY 2015 EPS of 2.58, this would translate to an EPS of 2.40 after factoring in the rights shares, or a 54% drop in EPS yoy. The question you should ask yourself is how much you are willing to pay for that amount of earning which many investors would differ broadly based on what we call the PE ratio. It is currently trading at a trailing PE of 1.35 Going forward Kengen is likely to issue a profit warning. If you look at the FY 2015 results you will see huge one off items like tax incentives and other comprehensive income from revaluation of assets. But that said, this is a strong stock fundermentally and good value for money from P.E, P/B, Wide moat etc. Profit Warning?? I highly doubt unless something happens to their generating capacity.Profit before tax for the whole of 2015 was 8.6B while for the half year 2016 is 8.3B.In the half year results the company actually paid full tax leading to an EPS of 2.58. Like I have said before there is too much pessimism clouding the analysis of this share..This is a gem to have at the current prices. @moneydust not a profit warning in the conventional sense per se and no they wont issue one. Following commissioning of a new generating plant the company qualifies for tax subsidies/incentives which is what @Grand is pointing out in the 2015 reports. FY profit after tax 2016 is unlikely to be marginally different from 2015 and with the new shares I doubt the story gets any better on dividends, which is basically what any rational investor is looking out for when investing in a utilty firm(unless u have deep pockets looking to make a takeover offer). it's interesting to see investors taking risks based on emotions. Happy Investing @City, Which plants were commissioned recently? Except well head generators, last significant plant was 280 MW. The massive rights will surely dampen the price for KenGen. I doubt if price post rights in the short term will go beyond 6. In the long run, KenGen will give patient investors good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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PKoli wrote:citymayor wrote:moneydust wrote:Grand wrote:citymayor wrote:citymayor wrote:Ebenyo wrote:@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price? @Ebenyo based on the tripling of share capital through the rights issue, you can basically divide FY 2016 expected earning by 3 to see what worth you will be having for a single share depending on what price you decide to get in. The golden rule is to trigger fundamentally and enter or exit technically. My math is abit rusty and I welcome any criticism from the community. Assuming a generous expected FY2016 EPS of 7.20 based on the HY 2015 EPS of 2.58, this would translate to an EPS of 2.40 after factoring in the rights shares, or a 54% drop in EPS yoy. The question you should ask yourself is how much you are willing to pay for that amount of earning which many investors would differ broadly based on what we call the PE ratio. It is currently trading at a trailing PE of 1.35 Going forward Kengen is likely to issue a profit warning. If you look at the FY 2015 results you will see huge one off items like tax incentives and other comprehensive income from revaluation of assets. But that said, this is a strong stock fundermentally and good value for money from P.E, P/B, Wide moat etc. Profit Warning?? I highly doubt unless something happens to their generating capacity.Profit before tax for the whole of 2015 was 8.6B while for the half year 2016 is 8.3B.In the half year results the company actually paid full tax leading to an EPS of 2.58. Like I have said before there is too much pessimism clouding the analysis of this share..This is a gem to have at the current prices. @moneydust not a profit warning in the conventional sense per se and no they wont issue one. Following commissioning of a new generating plant the company qualifies for tax subsidies/incentives which is what @Grand is pointing out in the 2015 reports. FY profit after tax 2016 is unlikely to be marginally different from 2015 and with the new shares I doubt the story gets any better on dividends, which is basically what any rational investor is looking out for when investing in a utilty firm(unless u have deep pockets looking to make a takeover offer). it's interesting to see investors taking risks based on emotions. Happy Investing @City, Which plants were commissioned recently? Except well head generators, last significant plant was 280 MW. The massive rights will surely dampen the price for KenGen. I doubt if price post rights in the short term will go beyond 6. In the long run, KenGen will give patient investors good returns. If both monetary and fiscal policies fail to sort out economic impediments, KENGEN will face ruthless price strangulation ex rights by the bear run to 3bob and it will be the best entry level for value longterm investors. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Spikes wrote:PKoli wrote:citymayor wrote:moneydust wrote:Grand wrote:citymayor wrote:citymayor wrote:Ebenyo wrote:@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price? @Ebenyo based on the tripling of share capital through the rights issue, you can basically divide FY 2016 expected earning by 3 to see what worth you will be having for a single share depending on what price you decide to get in. The golden rule is to trigger fundamentally and enter or exit technically. My math is abit rusty and I welcome any criticism from the community. Assuming a generous expected FY2016 EPS of 7.20 based on the HY 2015 EPS of 2.58, this would translate to an EPS of 2.40 after factoring in the rights shares, or a 54% drop in EPS yoy. The question you should ask yourself is how much you are willing to pay for that amount of earning which many investors would differ broadly based on what we call the PE ratio. It is currently trading at a trailing PE of 1.35 Going forward Kengen is likely to issue a profit warning. If you look at the FY 2015 results you will see huge one off items like tax incentives and other comprehensive income from revaluation of assets. But that said, this is a strong stock fundermentally and good value for money from P.E, P/B, Wide moat etc. Profit Warning?? I highly doubt unless something happens to their generating capacity.Profit before tax for the whole of 2015 was 8.6B while for the half year 2016 is 8.3B.In the half year results the company actually paid full tax leading to an EPS of 2.58. Like I have said before there is too much pessimism clouding the analysis of this share..This is a gem to have at the current prices. @moneydust not a profit warning in the conventional sense per se and no they wont issue one. Following commissioning of a new generating plant the company qualifies for tax subsidies/incentives which is what @Grand is pointing out in the 2015 reports. FY profit after tax 2016 is unlikely to be marginally different from 2015 and with the new shares I doubt the story gets any better on dividends, which is basically what any rational investor is looking out for when investing in a utilty firm(unless u have deep pockets looking to make a takeover offer). it's interesting to see investors taking risks based on emotions. Happy Investing @City, Which plants were commissioned recently? Except well head generators, last significant plant was 280 MW. The massive rights will surely dampen the price for KenGen. I doubt if price post rights in the short term will go beyond 6. In the long run, KenGen will give patient investors good returns. If both monetary and fiscal policies fail to sort out economic impediments, KENGEN will face ruthless price strangulation ex rights by the bear run to 3bob and it will be the best entry level for value longterm investors. What do you mean? The stock has been trading Ex-Rights for the last 1 week! Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,696 Location: NAIROBI
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The first person to see his/her CDS account has been credited with the rights issue shares apige salute hapa Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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Nothing yet, kwani itakuja lini
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,696 Location: NAIROBI
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Na pia rights are not being displayed trading in the market Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,590
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