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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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lochaz-index
#1741 Posted : Saturday, May 14, 2016 6:58:22 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:



As you can see from the above cartoon, we bottomed in Jan at 3745, the bears having taken charge since March 2015 after we hit 5500 on the NSE20. Before that, the previous bottom was the Dec 2011 low of 3070 which gave way to the bull, made more vicious by the discovery of oil news in Q12012. They controlled the show for about 15 months, with a few corrections in between, eg after the swearing in of Uhuru in April 2013.
Bank collapses will shift capital to Government stock and Equities from FDRs. A surge in Treasury bids will bring down yields hence my bottom call.
Scom and Equity have both announced FY and Q12016 respectively and its now all systems go. We just need a spark akin to the Q12012 discovery of oil news and the bull will develop legs and run till August 2017, when i foresee a major correction after announcement of the major news.
IMF and western envoys are beginning to lecture the opposition and its anyone's guess where they lean.....pointer to political stability in the run up to 2017 elections.
Notice today's price movements and foreign interest in Mpesa and member and you don't want to be left out lamentingsmile
#StockUp

If indeed this is the bottom it would be a very unusual one. I just don't think it is. To me it seems like we are just about the halfway mark in this bear market. Probably a fake out of some kind is the more likely scenario that is playing out at this juncture.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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muandiwambeu
#1742 Posted : Saturday, May 14, 2016 7:11:33 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
lochaz-index wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:



As you can see from the above cartoon, we bottomed in Jan at 3745, the bears having taken charge since March 2015 after we hit 5500 on the NSE20. Before that, the previous bottom was the Dec 2011 low of 3070 which gave way to the bull, made more vicious by the discovery of oil news in Q12012. They controlled the show for about 15 months, with a few corrections in between, eg after the swearing in of Uhuru in April 2013.
Bank collapses will shift capital to Government stock and Equities from FDRs. A surge in Treasury bids will bring down yields hence my bottom call.
Scom and Equity have both announced FY and Q12016 respectively and its now all systems go. We just need a spark akin to the Q12012 discovery of oil news and the bull will develop legs and run till August 2017, when i foresee a major correction after announcement of the major news.
IMF and western envoys are beginning to lecture the opposition and its anyone's guess where they lean.....pointer to political stability in the run up to 2017 elections.
Notice today's price movements and foreign interest in Mpesa and member and you don't want to be left out lamentingsmile
#StockUp

If indeed this is the bottom it would be a very unusual one. I just don't think it is. To me it seems like we are just about the halfway mark in this bear market. Probably a fake out of some kind is the more likely scenario that is playing out at this juncture.

a close watch of top ten historical movers points out possibility of haircut in ranges of 30%. the market is strained within a narrow range. a sign of false stability.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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hisah
#1743 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2016 5:42:29 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NSE20 currently testing support at the 3850 level turning the month negative. 4000 handle still remains a strong resistance level. The sooner the tight trading zone is resolved (3700 - 4000) the better. This bollinger squeeze will be strong considering the time taken to consolidate at this tight zone. Bollinger squeezes always warn of a sharp pending move - sharp plunge or sharp rally. Sharp plunge will unleash that hellish rollercoaster ride required to force the market to start basing out - large shakeout to throw out weak hands as ulcers bleed! If a sharp rally, I'll keep off for this support level is weak! That rally would be a fake out and would trap many and cause a sharper plunge as it collapses!

Global market are also sideways since April as brexit looms.

Two choices; pain now to finish off the bear or fake relief that will unleash a bigger bear! Let's see what the market chooses. If I could control it I'd go for option one for it's less painful!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#1744 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2016 6:09:15 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
KRA puts rogue bankers on notice over insider loan taxes

KRA wants to deny tax breaks on bad insider loans. The taxman wants his cut as govt debt piles up pressure on tax collection. Banks face mounting NPL pressure which will slash their profits. If they have a large size of insider NPLs the taxman still takes his cut and tells the banker to eat the losses. I see my lunatic call to short the banks will afterall roll in money by year end. Where is that banks ETF when you need one to short it?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#1745 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2016 7:37:29 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
NSE20 currently testing support at the 3850 level turning the month negative. 4000 handle still remains a strong resistance level. The sooner the tight trading zone is resolved (3700 - 4000) the better. This bollinger squeeze will be strong considering the time taken to consolidate at this tight zone. Bollinger squeezes always warn of a sharp pending move - sharp plunge or sharp rally. Sharp plunge will unleash that hellish rollercoaster ride required to force the market to start basing out - large shakeout to throw out weak hands as ulcers bleed! If a sharp rally, I'll keep off for this support level is weak! That rally would be a fake out and would trap many and cause a sharper plunge as it collapses!

Global market are also sideways since April as brexit looms.

Two choices; pain now to finish off the bear or fake relief that will unleash a bigger bear! Let's see what the market chooses. If I could control it I'd go for option one for it's less painful!


I've seen the weakness in the market. The fact that it's coming after so rosy earnings some of the big bluechips tells alot. I think it's option 1, I want it to be option 1
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mlennyma
#1746 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2016 10:08:58 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 currently testing support at the 3850 level turning the month negative. 4000 handle still remains a strong resistance level. The sooner the tight trading zone is resolved (3700 - 4000) the better. This bollinger squeeze will be strong considering the time taken to consolidate at this tight zone. Bollinger squeezes always warn of a sharp pending move - sharp plunge or sharp rally. Sharp plunge will unleash that hellish rollercoaster ride required to force the market to start basing out - large shakeout to throw out weak hands as ulcers bleed! If a sharp rally, I'll keep off for this support level is weak! That rally would be a fake out and would trap many and cause a sharper plunge as it collapses!

Global market are also sideways since April as brexit looms.

Two choices; pain now to finish off the bear or fake relief that will unleash a bigger bear! Let's see what the market chooses. If I could control it I'd go for option one for it's less painful!


I've seen the weakness in the market. The fact that it's coming after so rosy earnings some of the big bluechips tells alot. I think it's option 1, I want it to be option 1

the bear is threatening to consume our 2yrs plus still counting
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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iris
#1747 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2016 10:43:04 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/11/2014
Posts: 228
Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma
#1748 Posted : Thursday, May 19, 2016 1:01:25 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
NSE20 currently testing support at the 3850 level turning the month negative. 4000 handle still remains a strong resistance level. The sooner the tight trading zone is resolved (3700 - 4000) the better. This bollinger squeeze will be strong considering the time taken to consolidate at this tight zone. Bollinger squeezes always warn of a sharp pending move - sharp plunge or sharp rally. Sharp plunge will unleash that hellish rollercoaster ride required to force the market to start basing out - large shakeout to throw out weak hands as ulcers bleed! If a sharp rally, I'll keep off for this support level is weak! That rally would be a fake out and would trap many and cause a sharper plunge as it collapses!

Global market are also sideways since April as brexit looms.

Two choices; pain now to finish off the bear or fake relief that will unleash a bigger bear! Let's see what the market chooses. If I could control it I'd go for option one for it's less painful!

A slight comeback today
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, May 19, 2016 1:44 PM | Reason: Not specified
Spikes
#1749 Posted : Friday, May 20, 2016 4:47:01 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
mlennyma wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 currently testing support at the 3850 level turning the month negative. 4000 handle still remains a strong resistance level. The sooner the tight trading zone is resolved (3700 - 4000) the better. This bollinger squeeze will be strong considering the time taken to consolidate at this tight zone. Bollinger squeezes always warn of a sharp pending move - sharp plunge or sharp rally. Sharp plunge will unleash that hellish rollercoaster ride required to force the market to start basing out - large shakeout to throw out weak hands as ulcers bleed! If a sharp rally, I'll keep off for this support level is weak! That rally would be a fake out and would trap many and cause a sharper plunge as it collapses!

Global market are also sideways since April as brexit looms.

Two choices; pain now to finish off the bear or fake relief that will unleash a bigger bear! Let's see what the market chooses. If I could control it I'd go for option one for it's less painful!

A slight comeback today



Today the NSE20 index has missed 4000 handle as they were several greens. I declare this exchange haggard!
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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The Great
#1750 Posted : Friday, May 20, 2016 8:37:12 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/9/2015
Posts: 233
Headache!
"Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."
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