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Kengen success
Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/15/2012 Posts: 29 Location: unimportant
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citymayor wrote:Ebenyo wrote:@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price? @Ebenyo based on the tripling of share capital through the rights issue, you can basically divide FY 2016 expected earning by 3 to see what worth you will be having for a single share depending on what price you decide to get in. The golden rule is to trigger fundamentally and enter or exit technically. My math is abit rusty and I welcome any criticism from the community. Assuming a generous expected FY2016 EPS of 7.20 based on the HY 2015 EPS of 2.58, this would translate to an EPS of 2.40 after factoring in the rights shares, or a 54% drop in EPS yoy. The question you should ask yourself is how much you are willing to pay for that amount of earning which many investors would differ broadly based on what we call the PE ratio. It is currently trading at a trailing PE of 1.35 The Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/15/2012 Posts: 29 Location: unimportant
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citymayor wrote:citymayor wrote:Ebenyo wrote:@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price? @Ebenyo based on the tripling of share capital through the rights issue, you can basically divide FY 2016 expected earning by 3 to see what worth you will be having for a single share depending on what price you decide to get in. The golden rule is to trigger fundamentally and enter or exit technically. My math is abit rusty and I welcome any criticism from the community. Assuming a generous expected FY2016 EPS of 7.20 based on the HY 2015 EPS of 2.58, this would translate to an EPS of 2.40 after factoring in the rights shares, or a 54% drop in EPS yoy. The question you should ask yourself is how much you are willing to pay for that amount of earning which many investors would differ broadly based on what we call the PE ratio. It is currently trading at a trailing PE of 1.35 3 year weekly chart shows support at around 6 bob. I don't have the skills to analyze post rights scenario technically  The Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,696 Location: NAIROBI
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EPS with the newly issued shares after rights issue is likely to be in the range of 1.4-1.6. Working with the lower band of 1.4,the dividend is likely to be about 0.35. At a P/E of 8-9 the share is likely to be trading in the price ranges of 11-12 post rights and after release of Full Year 2015/2016 trading results Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/28/2014 Posts: 188 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:EPS with the newly issued shares after rights issue is likely to be in the range of 1.4-1.6.
Working with the lower band of 1.4,the dividend is likely to be about 0.35.
At a P/E of 8-9 the share is likely to be trading in the price ranges of 11-12 post rights and after release of Full Year 2015/2016 trading results Your predictions are almost always accurate...Hope this comes true... Offering my personal finance knowledge for free
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/26/2015 Posts: 151
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Ericsson wrote:EPS with the newly issued shares after rights issue is likely to be in the range of 1.4-1.6.
Working with the lower band of 1.4,the dividend is likely to be about 0.35.
At a P/E of 8-9 the share is likely to be trading in the price ranges of 11-12 post rights and after release of Full Year 2015/2016 trading results In this bear market, a PE of 4.5 - 7 would be safer. Still it's a prime time to pick up this stock. That in mind, 10/ could be reached. That's an upside of almost 40% from its current price
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/15/2012 Posts: 29 Location: unimportant
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MadDoc wrote:Ericsson wrote:EPS with the newly issued shares after rights issue is likely to be in the range of 1.4-1.6.
Working with the lower band of 1.4,the dividend is likely to be about 0.35.
At a P/E of 8-9 the share is likely to be trading in the price ranges of 11-12 post rights and after release of Full Year 2015/2016 trading results In this bear market, a PE of 4.5 - 7 would be safer. Still it's a prime time to pick up this stock. That in mind, 10/ could be reached. That's an upside of almost 40% from its current price @MadDoc, could you kindly enlighten us on what fundamentals or ratios you are using to arrive at a 10/ valuationThe Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 23
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citymayor wrote:citymayor wrote:Ebenyo wrote:@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price? @Ebenyo based on the tripling of share capital through the rights issue, you can basically divide FY 2016 expected earning by 3 to see what worth you will be having for a single share depending on what price you decide to get in. The golden rule is to trigger fundamentally and enter or exit technically. My math is abit rusty and I welcome any criticism from the community. Assuming a generous expected FY2016 EPS of 7.20 based on the HY 2015 EPS of 2.58, this would translate to an EPS of 2.40 after factoring in the rights shares, or a 54% drop in EPS yoy. The question you should ask yourself is how much you are willing to pay for that amount of earning which many investors would differ broadly based on what we call the PE ratio. It is currently trading at a trailing PE of 1.35 Going forward Kengen is likely to issue a profit warning. If you look at the FY 2015 results you will see huge one off items like tax incentives and other comprehensive income from revaluation of assets. But that said, this is a strong stock fundermentally and good value for money from P.E, P/B, Wide moat etc.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/30/2013 Posts: 254
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Grand wrote:citymayor wrote:citymayor wrote:Ebenyo wrote:@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price? @Ebenyo based on the tripling of share capital through the rights issue, you can basically divide FY 2016 expected earning by 3 to see what worth you will be having for a single share depending on what price you decide to get in. The golden rule is to trigger fundamentally and enter or exit technically. My math is abit rusty and I welcome any criticism from the community. Assuming a generous expected FY2016 EPS of 7.20 based on the HY 2015 EPS of 2.58, this would translate to an EPS of 2.40 after factoring in the rights shares, or a 54% drop in EPS yoy. The question you should ask yourself is how much you are willing to pay for that amount of earning which many investors would differ broadly based on what we call the PE ratio. It is currently trading at a trailing PE of 1.35 Going forward Kengen is likely to issue a profit warning. If you look at the FY 2015 results you will see huge one off items like tax incentives and other comprehensive income from revaluation of assets. But that said, this is a strong stock fundermentally and good value for money from P.E, P/B, Wide moat etc. 'Wide Economic Moat' A type of sustainable competitive advantage that a business possesses that makes it difficult for rivals to wear down its market share and profit
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Trading at Rights price 6.55. Lets see what happens when rights are traded in the market from 23rd May. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/31/2007 Posts: 303
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Grand wrote:citymayor wrote:citymayor wrote:Ebenyo wrote:@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price? @Ebenyo based on the tripling of share capital through the rights issue, you can basically divide FY 2016 expected earning by 3 to see what worth you will be having for a single share depending on what price you decide to get in. The golden rule is to trigger fundamentally and enter or exit technically. My math is abit rusty and I welcome any criticism from the community. Assuming a generous expected FY2016 EPS of 7.20 based on the HY 2015 EPS of 2.58, this would translate to an EPS of 2.40 after factoring in the rights shares, or a 54% drop in EPS yoy. The question you should ask yourself is how much you are willing to pay for that amount of earning which many investors would differ broadly based on what we call the PE ratio. It is currently trading at a trailing PE of 1.35 Going forward Kengen is likely to issue a profit warning. If you look at the FY 2015 results you will see huge one off items like tax incentives and other comprehensive income from revaluation of assets. But that said, this is a strong stock fundermentally and good value for money from P.E, P/B, Wide moat etc. Profit Warning?? I highly doubt unless something happens to their generating capacity.Profit before tax for the whole of 2015 was 8.6B while for the half year 2016 is 8.3B.In the half year results the company actually paid full tax leading to an EPS of 2.58. Like I have said before there is too much pessimism clouding the analysis of this share..This is a gem to have at the current prices.
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/26/2015 Posts: 151
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citymayor wrote:MadDoc wrote:Ericsson wrote:EPS with the newly issued shares after rights issue is likely to be in the range of 1.4-1.6.
Working with the lower band of 1.4,the dividend is likely to be about 0.35.
At a P/E of 8-9 the share is likely to be trading in the price ranges of 11-12 post rights and after release of Full Year 2015/2016 trading results In this bear market, a PE of 4.5 - 7 would be safer. Still it's a prime time to pick up this stock. That in mind, 10/ could be reached. That's an upside of almost 40% from its current price @MadDoc, could you kindly enlighten us on what fundamentals or ratios you are using to arrive at a 10/ valuation I'm using Ericsson's EPS range. So i,ve decided to calculate it myself. If KENGEN was to maintain the 15% profit growth as in 2015, the EPS actually comes to 2. However, Let's be conservative and use 1.7. 1.7*6=10.2 Ive used an eps of 6 as a middle ground. 10 isn't very certain. And after all stocks are built on opportunities and risks
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/1/2007 Posts: 539 Location: Nakuru
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sparkly wrote:Trading at Rights price 6.55. Lets see what happens when rights are traded in the market from 23rd May. I feel trapped by this share. Got 15k shares, avg buying price of 9.5... No money to take up my rights in full (circa 200K!!!), Now advice a friend who wants the best way forward... 1) To avoid the rights and average down post-rights? 2) to take up full rights??? with no clear exit plan 3) To just do nothing, let the shares be diluted, but hang in there for a very very long time, probably to be inherited by the kids... For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/15/2013 Posts: 301
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winmak wrote:sparkly wrote:Trading at Rights price 6.55. Lets see what happens when rights are traded in the market from 23rd May. I feel trapped by this share. Got 15k shares, avg buying price of 9.5... No money to take up my rights in full (circa 200K!!!), Now advice a friend who wants the best way forward... 1) To avoid the rights and average down post-rights? 2) to take up full rights??? with no clear exit plan 3) To just do nothing, let the shares be diluted, but hang in there for a very very long time, probably to be inherited by the kids... option 1 for me....possibility they will trade at less than rights issue price post rights...especially in this bearish market.......
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Rank: Hello Joined: 5/18/2016 Posts: 2
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option 4 you could sale your rights and make a few coins awaiting dilution. say you are selling off 15k rights at 6.55, you could make something as you wait to onboard again after dilution and stability as predicted above.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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cocuphil wrote:option 4 you could sale your rights and make a few coins awaiting dilution. say you are selling off 15k rights at 6.55, you could make something as you wait to onboard again after dilution and stability as predicted above. i still expect plenty of untaken rights giving those selling their rights a hard time "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:cocuphil wrote:option 4 you could sale your rights and make a few coins awaiting dilution. say you are selling off 15k rights at 6.55, you could make something as you wait to onboard again after dilution and stability as predicted above. i still expect plenty of untaken rights giving those selling their rights a hard time This is my view all along, its not easy for a shareholder to triple their investment if they have a significant stake. Unless some institutional investors or larger shareholders come in to save the day, it will be hard to raise 8bn. and to add insult to this is the share has been on a decline. in 2013-2014 they could even have done this at 10.00 and issue fewer shares. if only The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:cocuphil wrote:option 4 you could sale your rights and make a few coins awaiting dilution. say you are selling off 15k rights at 6.55, you could make something as you wait to onboard again after dilution and stability as predicted above. i still expect plenty of untaken rights giving those selling their rights a hard time This is my view all along, its not easy for a shareholder to triple their investment if they have a significant stake. Unless some institutional investors or larger shareholders come in to save the day, it will be hard to raise 8bn. and to add insult to this is the share has been on a decline. in 2013-2014 they could even have done this at 10.00 and issue fewer shares. if only you have seen mworia swallow longhorn alone it only remains to be seen whether kengen has this high appetite investor on board "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/1/2007 Posts: 539 Location: Nakuru
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cocuphil wrote:option 4 you could sale your rights and make a few coins awaiting dilution. say you are selling off 15k rights at 6.55, you could make something as you wait to onboard again after dilution and stability as predicted above. i like this one, thanks bro... but what if noone buys the rights? For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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sparkly wrote:hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:A much clearer cartoon  Rising volumes with falling prices. RSI, Bollinger bands all pointing to overselling.  @sparkly, hope you are holding out long term. We still have the Oct 2016 date when we review KEGN again. My target is 4/- with the rights issue thrown into the dustbin! Got myself some more at 5.50 yesterday. My bid for another lot at 5.00 today didn't go through. I keep on buying as the sellers capitulate. I have a feeling that rights will be priced way above 5.50 so i am having my rights right now. Time for review. Doubled my holdings at 5.50 and thereabouts. Since the rights price is confirmed at 6.55, I will only be taking half of my allotted rights. Not keen to allocate too much of my networth in Kengen so i will sell the remaining half of the rights in the market. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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winmak wrote:cocuphil wrote:option 4 you could sale your rights and make a few coins awaiting dilution. say you are selling off 15k rights at 6.55, you could make something as you wait to onboard again after dilution and stability as predicted above. i like this one, thanks bro... but what if noone buys the rights? they will be classified as untaken "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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