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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii, SPT, sparkly have a look at the NBK long term chart. Can you spot the falling wedge breakout!!! The price will plunge very sharply! With the current drama unfolding in the banking sector I'm keenly following this counter. GoK debt drama and this gok bank promise to stage a nice thriller.  NBK has issues regardless of high T-Bill rates or a bear market. It is under-capitalized [poor CARs] and lives on the largesse of GoK. If its loan book was assessed using metrics of more conservative banks, it would be closed down faster than Imperial Bank! True. That is why GoK will soon combine NBK, Consolidated and Development banks. In a few months.. Wedge breakout to the downside as price prints below 15 handle to close at 14.80. Sharp plunge coming up!
Post #1160: Posted : Wednesday, November 04, 2015 3:48:43 PM
The wedge formation finally had its breakout and NBK prices have collapsed as expected and tested the 8.00 handle on the spike selloff. Wedge breakouts are powerful. More selling pressure is coming!
The banking thriller has been as expected. We still have the gok debt thriller coming up. Caution in this market. Bears still going strong as the counter slips below the 9.00 handle. All time low at 8.00.
NSE20 is back at the April 14 level at 3901 as it closed at 3916. Below this level next support is 3850 then 3795. If bears push things further 3745 the low of the year (Jan 26) is the next target. Then we're off to new lows towards 3500 then 3300 and an overshoot at 3155 (the November 2011 low).
I'll keep stressing it, caution in this market. 2015 was bearish, but a slow bear. The real bear mauls rapidly. That capitulation (rollercoaster to hell) is what usually marks market bottoms. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii, SPT, sparkly have a look at the NBK long term chart. Can you spot the falling wedge breakout!!! The price will plunge very sharply! With the current drama unfolding in the banking sector I'm keenly following this counter. GoK debt drama and this gok bank promise to stage a nice thriller. NBK has issues regardless of high T-Bill rates or a bear market. It is under-capitalized [poor CARs] and lives on the largesse of GoK. If its loan book was assessed using metrics of more conservative banks, it would be closed down faster than Imperial Bank! True. That is why GoK will soon combine NBK, Consolidated and Development banks. In a few months.. Wedge breakout to the downside as price prints below 15 handle to close at 14.80. Sharp plunge coming up!
Post #1160: Posted : Wednesday, November 04, 2015 3:48:43 PM
The wedge formation finally had its breakout and NBK prices have collapsed as expected and tested the 8.00 handle on the spike selloff. Wedge breakouts are powerful. More selling pressure is coming!
The banking thriller has been as expected. We still have the gok debt thriller coming up. Caution in this market. Bears still going strong as the counter slips below the 9.00 handle. All time low at 8.00.
NSE20 is back at the April 14 level at 3901 as it closed at 3916. Below this level next support is 3850 then 3795. If bears push things further 3745 the low of the year (Jan 26) is the next target. Then we're off to new lows towards 3500 then 3300 and an overshoot at 3155 (the November 2011 low).
I'll keep stressing it, caution in this market. 2015 was bearish, but a slow bear. The real bear mauls rapidly. That capitulation (rollercoaster to hell) is what usually marks market bottoms. I wish my gadget is big enough to accommodate tools to highlight most striking statements. 'The real bear mauls rapidly.' I am keen this time round to alight at a price correction rally and sit tight to watch ugly scenes unfold. I have sensed signs of dramatic financial earthquake coming soon at NSE. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii, SPT, sparkly have a look at the NBK long term chart. Can you spot the falling wedge breakout!!! The price will plunge very sharply! With the current drama unfolding in the banking sector I'm keenly following this counter. GoK debt drama and this gok bank promise to stage a nice thriller. NBK has issues regardless of high T-Bill rates or a bear market. It is under-capitalized [poor CARs] and lives on the largesse of GoK. If its loan book was assessed using metrics of more conservative banks, it would be closed down faster than Imperial Bank! True. That is why GoK will soon combine NBK, Consolidated and Development banks. In a few months.. Wedge breakout to the downside as price prints below 15 handle to close at 14.80. Sharp plunge coming up!
Post #1160: Posted : Wednesday, November 04, 2015 3:48:43 PM
The wedge formation finally had its breakout and NBK prices have collapsed as expected and tested the 8.00 handle on the spike selloff. Wedge breakouts are powerful. More selling pressure is coming!
The banking thriller has been as expected. We still have the gok debt thriller coming up. Caution in this market. Bears still going strong as the counter slips below the 9.00 handle. All time low at 8.00.
NSE20 is back at the April 14 level at 3901 as it closed at 3916. Below this level next support is 3850 then 3795. If bears push things further 3745 the low of the year (Jan 26) is the next target. Then we're off to new lows towards 3500 then 3300 and an overshoot at 3155 (the November 2011 low).
I'll keep stressing it, caution in this market. 2015 was bearish, but a slow bear. The real bear mauls rapidly. That capitulation (rollercoaster to hell) is what usually marks market bottoms. Nbk's all time low is 8bob? I always thought it to be lower in pre-kibaki/early kibaki times? The narrow range of 3700-4000 has held on for what seems forever. If the market snaps out of that safe range things won't be pretty... 2007/2008 comes to mind. The market has a way of fooling you into complacency and then the grizzly pounces. Sideways action is boring if it's not at the bottom(gives guys time to accumulate) or at the top(affords investors time to jump ship). The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii, SPT, sparkly have a look at the NBK long term chart. Can you spot the falling wedge breakout!!! The price will plunge very sharply! With the current drama unfolding in the banking sector I'm keenly following this counter. GoK debt drama and this gok bank promise to stage a nice thriller. NBK has issues regardless of high T-Bill rates or a bear market. It is under-capitalized [poor CARs] and lives on the largesse of GoK. If its loan book was assessed using metrics of more conservative banks, it would be closed down faster than Imperial Bank! True. That is why GoK will soon combine NBK, Consolidated and Development banks. In a few months.. Wedge breakout to the downside as price prints below 15 handle to close at 14.80. Sharp plunge coming up!
Post #1160: Posted : Wednesday, November 04, 2015 3:48:43 PM
The wedge formation finally had its breakout and NBK prices have collapsed as expected and tested the 8.00 handle on the spike selloff. Wedge breakouts are powerful. More selling pressure is coming!
The banking thriller has been as expected. We still have the gok debt thriller coming up. Caution in this market. Bears still going strong as the counter slips below the 9.00 handle. All time low at 8.00.
NSE20 is back at the April 14 level at 3901 as it closed at 3916. Below this level next support is 3850 then 3795. If bears push things further 3745 the low of the year (Jan 26) is the next target. Then we're off to new lows towards 3500 then 3300 and an overshoot at 3155 (the November 2011 low).
I'll keep stressing it, caution in this market. 2015 was bearish, but a slow bear. The real bear mauls rapidly. That capitulation (rollercoaster to hell) is what usually marks market bottoms. I like "roller coaster to hell" been waiting for it in 2015 to no avail. Still saving up to take advantage The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/9/2015 Posts: 233
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It appears to be a long wait. "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,225 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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 As you can see from the above cartoon, we bottomed in Jan at 3745, the bears having taken charge since March 2015 after we hit 5500 on the NSE20. Before that, the previous bottom was the Dec 2011 low of 3070 which gave way to the bull, made more vicious by the discovery of oil news in Q12012. They controlled the show for about 15 months, with a few corrections in between, eg after the swearing in of Uhuru in April 2013. Bank collapses will shift capital to Government stock and Equities from FDRs. A surge in Treasury bids will bring down yields hence my bottom call. Scom and Equity have both announced FY and Q12016 respectively and its now all systems go. We just need a spark akin to the Q12012 discovery of oil news and the bull will develop legs and run till August 2017, when i foresee a major correction after announcement of the major news. IMF and western envoys are beginning to lecture the opposition and its anyone's guess where they lean.....pointer to political stability in the run up to 2017 elections. Notice today's price movements and foreign interest in Mpesa and member and you don't want to be left out lamenting  #StockUp @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:As you can see from the above cartoon, we bottomed in Jan at 3745, the bears having taken charge since March 2015 after we hit 5500 on the NSE20. Before that, the previous bottom was the Dec 2011 low of 3070 which gave way to the bull, made more vicious by the discovery of oil news in Q12012. They controlled the show for about 15 months, with a few corrections in between, eg after the swearing in of Uhuru in April 2013. Bank collapses will shift capital to Government stock and Equities from FDRs. A surge in Treasury bids will bring down yields hence my bottom call. Scom and Equity have both announced FY and Q12016 respectively and its now all systems go. We just need a spark akin to the Q12012 discovery of oil news and the bull will develop legs and run till August 2017, when i foresee a major correction after announcement of the major news. IMF and western envoys are beginning to lecture the opposition and its anyone's guess where they lean.....pointer to political stability in the run up to 2017 elections. Notice today's price movements and foreign interest in Mpesa and member and you don't want to be left out lamenting #StockUp The blue section posts are now in winter. Perfect. If we get that overshoot dip towards 3500, the recovery stars will align perfectly for the next bullish climb above 6161 all time highs. If NSE20 had short-selling that short squeeze as the bulls took over would fuel that rally above 7000pts. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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duplicate. deleted $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:As you can see from the above cartoon, we bottomed in Jan at 3745, the bears having taken charge since March 2015 after we hit 5500 on the NSE20. Before that, the previous bottom was the Dec 2011 low of 3070 which gave way to the bull, made more vicious by the discovery of oil news in Q12012. They controlled the show for about 15 months, with a few corrections in between, eg after the swearing in of Uhuru in April 2013. Bank collapses will shift capital to Government stock and Equities from FDRs. A surge in Treasury bids will bring down yields hence my bottom call. Scom and Equity have both announced FY and Q12016 respectively and its now all systems go. We just need a spark akin to the Q12012 discovery of oil news and the bull will develop legs and run till August 2017, when i foresee a major correction after announcement of the major news. IMF and western envoys are beginning to lecture the opposition and its anyone's guess where they lean.....pointer to political stability in the run up to 2017 elections. Notice today's price movements and foreign interest in Mpesa and member and you don't want to be left out lamenting #StockUp The blue section posts are now in winter. Perfect. If we get that overshoot dip towards 3500, the recovery stars will align perfectly for the next bullish climb above 6161 all time highs. If NSE20 had short-selling that short squeeze as the bulls took over would fuel that rally above 7000pts. i have sharpened my knife to eat that bull however long it takes to arrive "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:As you can see from the above cartoon, we bottomed in Jan at 3745, the bears having taken charge since March 2015 after we hit 5500 on the NSE20. Before that, the previous bottom was the Dec 2011 low of 3070 which gave way to the bull, made more vicious by the discovery of oil news in Q12012. They controlled the show for about 15 months, with a few corrections in between, eg after the swearing in of Uhuru in April 2013. Bank collapses will shift capital to Government stock and Equities from FDRs. A surge in Treasury bids will bring down yields hence my bottom call. Scom and Equity have both announced FY and Q12016 respectively and its now all systems go. We just need a spark akin to the Q12012 discovery of oil news and the bull will develop legs and run till August 2017, when i foresee a major correction after announcement of the major news. IMF and western envoys are beginning to lecture the opposition and its anyone's guess where they lean.....pointer to political stability in the run up to 2017 elections. Notice today's price movements and foreign interest in Mpesa and member and you don't want to be left out lamenting #StockUp If indeed this is the bottom it would be a very unusual one. I just don't think it is. Probably a fake out of some kind is the more likely scenario here. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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