I have been following recent property news in Nairobi and i can't stop wondering what could have happened to nextgen along mombasa road near Eko hotel.

Could it have stalled or was it a victim of imperial bank easy money?

What do wazuans think?

As @Alma states, this could be a perfect time for vulture investing.

Picking the carcass of the dying property boom for distressed mortgages. Many people are going to default on loans, only this time they will not be able to gain from the rising land prices to still sell at a profit.

Banks will also struggle to hold on to non performing loans backed by stalled projects, they will soon be pushing developers to sell at whichever prices and pay their loans

This is wazua. Here we are not naive. Let us be real. Real estate boom = money laundering boom.

So as long as the devolved government remains a free-for-all, as long as there is no jail time for corrupt bankers and big company managers, as long as gold scammers, wash wash boys etc are roaming free on our streets, as long as armed robbers are not being arrested, the property/money laundering boom will continue. All these other graphs, sijui financial projections, Hass Consult reports bla bla bla, is mostly just noise from people trying to sound intelligent. Let's be real here on wazua at least.

The problem with the Kenyan property market is very simple. People have not been investing in land to make a profit, they have either been laundering money or sitting on it waiting for it to appreciate in value.

That is not investing.

Investing in land means that investors actually make use of the land. Not hold to wait and sell to another fellow who shall hold and wait, then hold and wait. With the idea that one day some day they shall be billionaires.

I blame that to lack of information. I trully do not see why I should use $10000 to buy an 1/8th of an acre in the bundus with a greenhouse.

While I can buy a piece somewhere in Florida for about the same and if I want a house some 5 million shillings.

Not only will I be assured that my property doesn't have a fake title, I can actually be able to give my kids citizenship in the land of the free and the brave.

Do not fall for this story that property prices don't go down. I'm a registered valuer in Kenya and another place. I can assure you, that unless you are planning on adding value to land, a crash shall surely come. The longer it takes to come, the harder shit shall hit the fan.

I was watching the chama show someone mentioned here. 90% of those chamas are like, we shall buy land then subdivide and sell. Sell to whom, another chama?

That's a pyramid scheme.

Now all chamas have an account at Unaitas or BOA and Rafiki. They are all buying land. Even wazua chama is buying land. Who the hell do you think is going to buy it if everyone is selling?

Kenyans let's not be slow here. The world economies moved on from owning physical assets to leasing someone elses physical assets. Uber, Amazon, Wayfair, Apple, even Microsoft is going into licensing.

You shall own your land but someone else shall lease it and make a billion as you wait for the property values to make you billionaires.

The only people who shall enjoy land are my parents who bought plots for 10k. You the young one had better think about something else. Coz their ain't no way I can pay you 50million for a plot when I can get a ranch in Australia with citizenship for that amount. Or try Canada.

Investing is not about love its about time. When I die you shall bury me one way or another. Or you can take the Prince route and just burn me to ashes and throw them into mogotio river.

Now couple that with the stupidity of getting a mortgage. People people. Americans who get paid every Friday could not be able to finance a mortgage at 7% max. Kweli wewe mkenya wa 80k who do you think you are to finance a mortgage at 20%. Man rent. Man rent. The rest of the money rent the land from the fellows buying PRC land and keep a cow.

Those people who you are banking on to buy your chama plots in the future... where will they get the resources from? Most Kenyan youth are severely underpaid at their jobs (those who are lucky to be employed) and most are living hand to mouth. On the other hand, we see the prices of land literally doubling every 3-5 years. If a solid middle class person is feeling the pinch paying for a 1/8th in Nbi's suburbs, how about 10 years from now when inflation will have gone up but wages will remain stagnant? Is that middle class going to appear magically? I see a nation of severe wealth disparities, basically landlords and renters. Going forward, I think we will see an explosion of low income rentals, not an increase in property buyers...unless those prices come down.

[quote=alma1]Wanyee as much as I hate to say it, please read murchr's posts on the internet or take any business for example.

Business people do not buy land. They rent your house.

Since this is an investor's forum, let me ask you like seriously.

Why should I buy land for lets just say 1 million for an 1/8

Kenyan reasons

I million shillings shall become rental income of 15 1 bedroom houses for 10k each giving me a guaranteed 150k per month.

It sounds very nice until you hear KRA is busy looking for you matapakas and honesly 150k in Nairobi means you rent a house in Embakasi as you wait.

Wait, Wait. for the property appreciation. After all all property values go up.

Please do not compare yourself to your grandfather in 1970. There comes a time when prices flatline. In each and every business. Every business.

Now since we are in 2016. Some mama goes with the same 10k dollars to shaina. She buys a few bed spreads for 500 bob and sells them in facebook for the low low price of 2k. Her cost 1k her profit 1k.

Why the hell do you think you are seeing very many women going to shaina?

Then they come back and buy your kabroti. Not to sell it for a profit today but to hold onto it coz every Kenyan want's land. Why do you think they sell to you. When shit hits the fan she sells the land to you and goes back to shaina. She then sells you the sheeap branket for another of your 2k.

I just don't know what to say.

Whilst the youth in other countries have moved on to understanding the meaning of adding value, the Kenyan youth are still trying to be like our grandparents.

The stories of the young rich in Kenya are there for you to see. Instead of buying land Keroche decided to sell you beer. Now they own a house in Muthaiga. Instead of buying land, Lamudi has convinced each and every property firm in Kenya to pay them minimum 10k per month just to be listed.

Let me ask you with all sincerity. What happened to Tysons, Llyod Masika etc. They have gone so low that they pay a mbeberu every month to list their property. What was so hard for them to do it themselves?

Instead of buying land, you wazuan are busy making Jumia nigerian kids billionaires.

Lamudi, Jumia are making more returns in a day than the land buying Kenyan. Tafakari hayo.

You continue buying land. Unless you are a property management firm that has the skills to maneuver the market, I don't see why you should not be like nice and lovely, go to shaina and get a factory to manufacture.

I'm talking like an old man who has seen this wave pass me by. I really hope the young in Kenya don't waste time on land but waste their time on manufacturing and leverage.

Getting a Kenyan mortgage...means you are one of the most stupid humans in the world. Ati I pay you 25% and you give me 1% interest on my money. let me take it to karumaindo.

I think Wanyee we are talking of different things here

If you start a matatu business, you are likely to lose. If you start a taxi cab business, I think wazua has shown you that its not so rosy.

Yet there are billionaires in matatu and taxi business. This is not to tell you not to do it. But do it as you know the reality.

Even in property booms and bursts, there are people who make quite a lot of money.

But that doesn't negate the fact that when one person wins, hundreds lose.

We are talking about the property market here including the mortgage market.

Your chances of losing in Kenya right now are close to 90%. Ask the fellas in Syokimau with fake titles signed by gov't officers

I was once in a mathree and Maina Kageni was selling land in Lamu telling them that land will double in prices in 2 years coz of lapset. Today we learned that lapset shall be hopefully completed when I'm dead.

Yet there are investors who shall make a killing.

There is a difference between investors and speculators. 90% of Kenyans are speculators. They shall suffer accordingly.

But we shall be talking about the rich guys who made a killing. For you, we shall forget about you and bury you in misery.

Math don't lie. You have been warned on wazua.

@WalterWhite ... I am not in a chama, but do buy land owned by people who are members of various chamas. People's financial abilities increases with time. I'll use an example to illustrate that if you cannot afford a certain 1/8th now it does not mean that you cannot afford the same 1/8th ten years later. I remember Kahawa Sukari was costing 100K in early 1990 and several people I knew could not afford to buy. Yet, they were able to buy in mid 1995 for 300K; their financial abilities improved with time. And some who could not afford at 300K were able to buy early 2000 for slightly less than 1M. And I still see people buying the same plots for 6M+. Yes low income rental properties will increase, but those low income renters will strive to own 1/8th to built their own house. And they may be able to buy the same 1/8th that they cannot afford now - but will afford it 10 years later. Not every body - but some will.