I cannot pretend to know but I guess it is mere mass speculation based on the prospects of a boardroom takeover. I would urge caution, as 1. the GoK is involved - we know what that means, and, 2. prospective bidders will likely have a discount on mkt price quite unlike what happens in a hostile takeover!

@guru267 (is your birthday Feb 1967?) that is not fair. By going ex bonus hasn't made NBK junk. Assuming you had 5 shares the cb value would be 53 x 5 = 265. Since you get 2 extra shares, the value of your investment doesn't change, but the value of each share (5 + 2 bonus) becomes 265 / 7 = 37. So the drop to 38 is consistent. I just pity the guys who bought at 49 eb.
However the machination to convert preferential to ordinary will make it junk.

Trading ex bonus today

this "junk" is making many people smile. Bought at 51.00, sold at 59.50. Then bought ex bonus @36.00....still going up up up

@guru, the restructuring is not a done deal, nssf concerns will have to be seriously addressed by g.o.k since screwing the kenyan pensioners is the last thing this govt will want to do..having said that, i bought at 36.00 expecting it to stagnate at that level for some time or head south, had actually left some cash to chase it southwards..i'm also puzzled by its meteoric rise

i agree with u @ kaffir about the risk appetite but may be something is cookin

[quote=guru267]the price rise might be as a result of the market anticipating NSSF having its way in the conversion...

http://www.theeastafrica.../-/wau96xz/-/index.html[/quote]

for someone strictly long term...guru..you weigh too much on shortterm variables. How does nssf or shareholding structure affect bottomline? or share value?..

Let me try some mathematics to put things in perspective.

Price before announcement/bonus shares: 40/=

Multiply that by 5 (no. [ratio] of share b4 split)
5 * 40 = 200/=

Current price (after bonus): 44/=

Multiply that by 7 (no. [ratio] of share after split)
7 * 44 = 308/=

Difference: 308 - 200 = 108

Now divide that by the original 5 shares:
108 / 5 = 21.6/=

Anyone buying the shares today at 44/= is actually paying a whooping kshs. 21.60/= more (50% more) on the 'original' shares.

Does NBKs performance justify this? Not really. Just compare their EPS (sub 6/=?) to the value above. Does forescast on future performance justify it? Nope! Unless there is some inside info I'm not privy to, I don't see this going very well for guys getting in now.

But then again, I could be wrong. Anyway, when I'm in doubt, I keep off. Better loose a 50% chance of making money (not much the way I see it) than get into a deal where you have a (very realistic) 50% chance of loosing it!!!

@guru... Thanx.

..makes you wonder with all other options in banking...why buy into NBK? its like bracing for an opportunity to curse the Government!!