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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:The nse today was mad with huge volumes with the top 5 movers doing over 5m shares,this isn't a bear sign That's not the sentiment, but bears are patient. They can strike without warning. Could be smart money selling the relief rally. We'll know way later The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/3/2014 Posts: 245
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I will leave this here and let socionomists deliberate on its implications. Kenya is a cruel marriage, it’s time we talk divorceIn the world of securities, courage and patience become the supreme virtues after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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Mbeere South MP, Mutava Musyimi, thinks Ndii proposal to break up country is like cutting nose to spite facePesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,187 Location: nairobi
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the whole world has become too risky to guarantee your life the following day leave alone business. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 5/21/2013 Posts: 72 Location: KENYA
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One of those counters that sneaks past people while there focus is caught up in all the market noise. NSE hit an record high of 30.25/- during trading today. That bonus issue has tongues wagging.  “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/1/2007 Posts: 232
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Let those who wish to buy air do so. Am still smarting from Carbacid...Never buy an overvalued share...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Q1 closes today and so far 4000 is still slippery for NSE20. The profit warning carnage is now visible, which will pile pressure on Q1 and Q2 earnings. By Q3 election mood picks up. If by June a firm will not have worked out its cost controls in a tight econ, FY will be another sombre result. Once political circus starts I don't see any econ growth till the election period shuts down. Earnings dry spell till 2018. NBK is falling from a descending wedge. Crazy prices coming up as mr market tries to find a floor! This will give gok sleepless nights. How much money can a broke gok afford to bailout msc, kq, nbk etc plus a pension tab? How many job losses before gok starts sweating? How many bad banks before KES starts wobbling? Globally nothing interesting to write about. Negative Interest Rate (NIR) environment means capital will continue getting very defensive. Global equities feel topped out and waiting for the big fall. Oil will likely head below $25 in the next dip. If there's something that keeps me awake is Japan. Their monetary experiment is a meth lab waiting to blow up all markets! Sovereign debt market is a disaster waiting to happen. 2016 will not be an easy to trade year. Markets appear cheap at the moment, but so did Q1 and Q2 in 2008. One shocking headline or two and the bottom will rapidly fall out. Cash is still king and the western world calls to ban it plus NIR policies confirm it! If you hoard cash you'll be enemy of the state! Coming soon... At that point sovereign debt bomb will have triggered and stocks will reverse the big selloff and float to all time highs as capital dumps govt debt and hoards blue chips stocks. The summary is cash is king and if you choose to play risky assets be very very very choosy... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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hisah wrote:Q1 closes today and so far 4000 is still slippery for NSE20. The profit warning carnage is now visible, which will pile pressure on Q1 and Q2 earnings. By Q3 election mood picks up. If by June a firm will not have worked out its cost controls in a tight econ, FY will be another sombre result. Once political circus starts I don't see any econ growth till the election period shuts down. Earnings dry spell till 2018.
NBK is falling from a descending wedge. Crazy prices coming up as mr market tries to find a floor! This will give gok sleepless nights. How much money can a broke gok afford to bailout msc, kq, nbk etc plus a pension tab? How many job losses before gok starts sweating? How many bad banks before KES starts wobbling?
Globally nothing interesting to write about. Negative Interest Rate (NIR) environment means capital will continue getting very defensive. Global equities feel topped out and waiting for the big fall. Oil will likely head below $25 in the next dip.
If there's something that keeps me awake is Japan. Their monetary experiment is a meth lab waiting to blow up all markets! Sovereign debt market is a disaster waiting to happen.
2016 will not be an easy to trade year. Markets appear cheap at the moment, but so did Q1 and Q2 in 2008. One shocking headline or two and the bottom will rapidly fall out. Cash is still king and the western world calls to ban it plus NIR policies confirm it! If you hoard cash you'll be enemy of the state! Coming soon... At that point sovereign debt bomb will have triggered and stocks will reverse the big selloff and float to all time highs as capital dumps govt debt and hoards blue chips stocks.
The summary is cash is king and if you choose to play risky assets be very very very choosy... The retirees are going for about an year before they get their Lumpsum, gvt is really broke. Those who normally make money for campaign in NSE might have to rethink another source. Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:
Posted : Wednesday, March 02, 2016 12:32:15 AM
It's March the month that most financials must publish their annual results. I don't expect much here and remain very pessimistic on banks going forward. I'd be short the KE banks index if there was such an ETF. By year end I'll know if I was a lunatic for being this biased vs banks.
One month later...
Like I've said before those holding KE banks sit tight  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:
Posted : Wednesday, March 02, 2016 12:32:15 AM
It's March the month that most financials must publish their annual results. I don't expect much here and remain very pessimistic on banks going forward. I'd be short the KE banks index if there was such an ETF. By year end I'll know if I was a lunatic for being this biased vs banks.
One month later...
Like I've said before those holding KE banks sit tight Tell us please how Kenyan banking sector will come down terribly crumbling. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:
Posted : Wednesday, March 02, 2016 12:32:15 AM
It's March the month that most financials must publish their annual results. I don't expect much here and remain very pessimistic on banks going forward. I'd be short the KE banks index if there was such an ETF. By year end I'll know if I was a lunatic for being this biased vs banks.
One month later...
Like I've said before those holding KE banks sit tight Tell us please how Kenyan banking sector will come down terribly crumbling. - Confidence evaporating on corporate governance.
- Tough regulator willing to squeeze as hard as possible. A good thing, but that will cause a short term negative effect till the system is purged.
- Legislators hell bent to impose the lending rate cap.
Very limited upside case for bulls. Mr Market will ignore fundies for a while. The feel good mojo is completely missing.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:
Posted : Wednesday, March 02, 2016 12:32:15 AM
It's March the month that most financials must publish their annual results. I don't expect much here and remain very pessimistic on banks going forward. I'd be short the KE banks index if there was such an ETF. By year end I'll know if I was a lunatic for being this biased vs banks.
One month later...
Like I've said before those holding KE banks sit tight Tell us please how Kenyan banking sector will come down terribly crumbling. - Confidence evaporating on corporate governance.
- Tough regulator willing to squeeze as hard as possible. A good thing, but that will cause a short term negative effect till the system is purged.
- Legislators hell bent to impose the lending rate cap.
Very limited upside case for bulls. Mr Market will ignore fundies for a while. The feel good mojo is completely missing. Absolutely! John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:
Posted : Wednesday, March 02, 2016 12:32:15 AM
It's March the month that most financials must publish their annual results. I don't expect much here and remain very pessimistic on banks going forward. I'd be short the KE banks index if there was such an ETF. By year end I'll know if I was a lunatic for being this biased vs banks.
One month later...
Like I've said before those holding KE banks sit tight How bad are we talking? Is your reading from a technical point of view, or the international debt bomb The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:
Posted : Wednesday, March 02, 2016 12:32:15 AM
It's March the month that most financials must publish their annual results. I don't expect much here and remain very pessimistic on banks going forward. I'd be short the KE banks index if there was such an ETF. By year end I'll know if I was a lunatic for being this biased vs banks.
One month later...
Like I've said before those holding KE banks sit tight Tell us please how Kenyan banking sector will come down terribly crumbling. - Confidence evaporating on corporate governance.
- Tough regulator willing to squeeze as hard as possible. A good thing, but that will cause a short term negative effect till the system is purged.
- Legislators hell bent to impose the lending rate cap.
Very limited upside case for bulls. Mr Market will ignore fundies for a while. The feel good mojo is completely missing. Tier3 Tier4 are now primed for a mass collapse. As long as Opus Dei stays in town expect further financial meltdown in the banking industry. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Market sentiment is indeed extremely fickle. Were we not supposedly in the middle of a bull charge? In a flash even permabulls have become bearish. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,187 Location: nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:Market sentiment is indeed extremely fickle. Were we not supposedly in the middle of a bull charge? In a flash even permabulls have become bearish. this market has no direction after the lowest bottom we saw,just flat heading to mid year,the next cycle is yet to present itself up or down "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:
Posted : Wednesday, March 02, 2016 12:32:15 AM
It's March the month that most financials must publish their annual results. I don't expect much here and remain very pessimistic on banks going forward. I'd be short the KE banks index if there was such an ETF. By year end I'll know if I was a lunatic for being this biased vs banks.
One month later...
Like I've said before those holding KE banks sit tight How bad are we talking? Is your reading from a technical point of view, or the international debt bomb Local fundies, techs and psychology all lined up! Globally most liquid bank indices are also sagging. Another alignment. If Deutsche bank blows up the domino effect will be global. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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All this drama with the banks feels like a throwback to 2007-2008 period the only difference being that it was stockbrokers which were going under. Either way wanjiku was/is slaughtered. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mlennyma wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Market sentiment is indeed extremely fickle. Were we not supposedly in the middle of a bull charge? In a flash even permabulls have become bearish. this market has no direction after the lowest bottom we saw,just flat heading to mid year,the next cycle is yet to present itself up or down It was just a lull before the storm which was being mistaken for a bull market. Same scenario has been playing out on a global scale. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@vvs, do you see the banking consolidation I have been seeing? A number of small fish will be swallowed. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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