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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
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murchr
#641 Posted : Thursday, March 24, 2016 6:43:11 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Meanwhile, as the price of KK Drool Drool Drool I would not mind it dropping to below 10 coz I have done the math and all I can see are $$$.

Do I really care about the fluctuations and swing trades? No.
[My Access experience taught me otherwise]


Please share the math because we are heading there.

What I really like now is the beginning of renovation of stations to attract rents of restaurants, which in turn will also increase retail fuel sales. That will increase turnover and profits.
People who think that the profits are just from cost cutting and paying down debt will be surprised.


Data gleaned from Kestrel and SIB reports after the investor briefing. Ceteris Paribus.

2016 forecasted EPS 1.65
Debt at zero by 30 June 2016 [unless there's an acquisition]
Forex Losses will be minimal with UGX & KES stabilized.
KPRL tanks to be renovated for use as storage so supply will be better.
Real estate enhancement [rental income]
New stations in Kenya - Breakeven in 3-6 months
200,000 LPG tanks on the way.
K-Card is better and faster.

Let's take the 1.65 EPS so at 10/- that's 6x PER. The assets are carried at cost in their books and they have realized that some 'CBD' stations are worth a lot more as rental properties. Will they sell these? I do not know.

Is KK a takeover target? Yes [I say] but Ohana said they do not run KK to sell [that's for the shareholders] but as a PROFITABLE GOING CONCERN for the future.

My take:

2016 1.65
2017 2.00

2018 CETERIS PARIBUS I think KK will be acquired. Hence I am very comfortable adding KK at 10/- for 18/- in 2018 assuming a normalized 10 PER.


Do this years results incl sale of assets in TZ and DRC?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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VituVingiSana
#642 Posted : Thursday, March 24, 2016 7:20:26 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,354
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Meanwhile, as the price of KK Drool Drool Drool I would not mind it dropping to below 10 coz I have done the math and all I can see are $$$.

Do I really care about the fluctuations and swing trades? No.
[My Access experience taught me otherwise]


Please share the math because we are heading there.

What I really like now is the beginning of renovation of stations to attract rents of restaurants, which in turn will also increase retail fuel sales. That will increase turnover and profits.
People who think that the profits are just from cost cutting and paying down debt will be surprised.


Data gleaned from Kestrel and SIB reports after the investor briefing. Ceteris Paribus.

2016 forecasted EPS 1.65
Debt at zero by 30 June 2016 [unless there's an acquisition]
Forex Losses will be minimal with UGX & KES stabilized.
KPRL tanks to be renovated for use as storage so supply will be better.
Real estate enhancement [rental income]
New stations in Kenya - Breakeven in 3-6 months
200,000 LPG tanks on the way.
K-Card is better and faster.

Let's take the 1.65 EPS so at 10/- that's 6x PER. The assets are carried at cost in their books and they have realized that some 'CBD' stations are worth a lot more as rental properties. Will they sell these? I do not know.

Is KK a takeover target? Yes [I say] but Ohana said they do not run KK to sell [that's for the shareholders] but as a PROFITABLE GOING CONCERN for the future.

My take:

2016 1.65
2017 2.00

2018 CETERIS PARIBUS I think KK will be acquired. Hence I am very comfortable adding KK at 10/- for 18/- in 2018 assuming a normalized 10 PER.


Do this years results incl sale of assets in TZ and DRC?

If you mean 2015 then yes. The cash is all in. The Capital Gain is in "Other Income" and the loss from Discontinued Operations has been shown. Apparently, 30% of the "Forex Loss" was also from TZ.

No operating or capital income/gain or loss from TZ in 2016.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#643 Posted : Thursday, March 24, 2016 7:23:12 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,354
Location: Nairobi
Kausha wrote:
If KK can maintain a gross profit margin of 10% EPS of 2.00 dead certain. Remember minimally finance costs and potentially no forex losses. GP is everything for KK under current model.

10% is high. I think the GP [which is independent of financing costs] will be more moderate. It was 6.9% [please verify] in 2015. I will use 7.5% unless they can boost sales of higher margin non-fuel e.g. LPG.

I look forward to 1H 2016 results but they may be rosier thanks to dropping fuel prices while ERC had set higher prices.

I have received the "Investor Briefing" from Kestrel. I am not sure how to post it. It may be online on their website.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, March 24, 2016 7:26 PM | Reason: Not specified
murchr
#644 Posted : Thursday, March 24, 2016 7:38:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Meanwhile, as the price of KK Drool Drool Drool I would not mind it dropping to below 10 coz I have done the math and all I can see are $$$.

Do I really care about the fluctuations and swing trades? No.
[My Access experience taught me otherwise]


Please share the math because we are heading there.

What I really like now is the beginning of renovation of stations to attract rents of restaurants, which in turn will also increase retail fuel sales. That will increase turnover and profits.
People who think that the profits are just from cost cutting and paying down debt will be surprised.


Data gleaned from Kestrel and SIB reports after the investor briefing. Ceteris Paribus.

2016 forecasted EPS 1.65
Debt at zero by 30 June 2016 [unless there's an acquisition]
Forex Losses will be minimal with UGX & KES stabilized.
KPRL tanks to be renovated for use as storage so supply will be better.
Real estate enhancement [rental income]
New stations in Kenya - Breakeven in 3-6 months
200,000 LPG tanks on the way.
K-Card is better and faster.

Let's take the 1.65 EPS so at 10/- that's 6x PER. The assets are carried at cost in their books and they have realized that some 'CBD' stations are worth a lot more as rental properties. Will they sell these? I do not know.

Is KK a takeover target? Yes [I say] but Ohana said they do not run KK to sell [that's for the shareholders] but as a PROFITABLE GOING CONCERN for the future.

My take:

2016 1.65
2017 2.00

2018 CETERIS PARIBUS I think KK will be acquired. Hence I am very comfortable adding KK at 10/- for 18/- in 2018 assuming a normalized 10 PER.


Do this years results incl sale of assets in TZ and DRC?

If you mean 2015 then yes. The cash is all in. The Capital Gain is in "Other Income" and the loss from Discontinued Operations has been shown. Apparently, 30% of the "Forex Loss" was also from TZ.

No operating or capital income/gain or loss from TZ in 2016.


Without the other income from selling assets what profit did KK make? Thanks
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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VituVingiSana
#645 Posted : Thursday, March 24, 2016 8:03:07 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,354
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Meanwhile, as the price of KK Drool Drool Drool I would not mind it dropping to below 10 coz I have done the math and all I can see are $$$.

Do I really care about the fluctuations and swing trades? No.
[My Access experience taught me otherwise]


Please share the math because we are heading there.

What I really like now is the beginning of renovation of stations to attract rents of restaurants, which in turn will also increase retail fuel sales. That will increase turnover and profits.
People who think that the profits are just from cost cutting and paying down debt will be surprised.


Data gleaned from Kestrel and SIB reports after the investor briefing. Ceteris Paribus.

2016 forecasted EPS 1.65
Debt at zero by 30 June 2016 [unless there's an acquisition]
Forex Losses will be minimal with UGX & KES stabilized.
KPRL tanks to be renovated for use as storage so supply will be better.
Real estate enhancement [rental income]
New stations in Kenya - Breakeven in 3-6 months
200,000 LPG tanks on the way.
K-Card is better and faster.

Let's take the 1.65 EPS so at 10/- that's 6x PER. The assets are carried at cost in their books and they have realized that some 'CBD' stations are worth a lot more as rental properties. Will they sell these? I do not know.

Is KK a takeover target? Yes [I say] but Ohana said they do not run KK to sell [that's for the shareholders] but as a PROFITABLE GOING CONCERN for the future.

My take:

2016 1.65
2017 2.00

2018 CETERIS PARIBUS I think KK will be acquired. Hence I am very comfortable adding KK at 10/- for 18/- in 2018 assuming a normalized 10 PER.


Do this years results incl sale of assets in TZ and DRC?

If you mean 2015 then yes. The cash is all in. The Capital Gain is in "Other Income" and the loss from Discontinued Operations has been shown. Apparently, 30% of the "Forex Loss" was also from TZ.

No operating or capital income/gain or loss from TZ in 2016.


Without the other income from selling assets what profit did KK make? Thanks

I don't know but a number I shall look for in the Annual Report.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Boris Boyka
#646 Posted : Thursday, March 24, 2016 8:19:54 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Meanwhile, as the price of KK Drool Drool Drool I would not mind it dropping to below 10 coz I have done the math and all I can see are $$$.

Do I really care about the fluctuations and swing trades? No.
[My Access experience taught me otherwise]


Please share the math because we are heading there.

What I really like now is the beginning of renovation of stations to attract rents of restaurants, which in turn will also increase retail fuel sales. That will increase turnover and profits.
People who think that the profits are just from cost cutting and paying down debt will be surprised.


Data gleaned from Kestrel and SIB reports after the investor briefing. Ceteris Paribus.

2016 forecasted EPS 1.65
Debt at zero by 30 June 2016 [unless there's an acquisition]
Forex Losses will be minimal with UGX & KES stabilized.
KPRL tanks to be renovated for use as storage so supply will be better.
Real estate enhancement [rental income]
New stations in Kenya - Breakeven in 3-6 months
200,000 LPG tanks on the way.
K-Card is better and faster.

Let's take the 1.65 EPS so at 10/- that's 6x PER. The assets are carried at cost in their books and they have realized that some 'CBD' stations are worth a lot more as rental properties. Will they sell these? I do not know.

Is KK a takeover target? Yes [I say] but Ohana said they do not run KK to sell [that's for the shareholders] but as a PROFITABLE GOING CONCERN for the future.

My take:

2016 1.65
2017 2.00

2018 CETERIS PARIBUS I think KK will be acquired. Hence I am very comfortable adding KK at 10/- for 18/- in 2018 assuming a normalized 10 PER.


Do this years results incl sale of assets in TZ and DRC?

If you mean 2015 then yes. The cash is all in. The Capital Gain is in "Other Income" and the loss from Discontinued Operations has been shown. Apparently, 30% of the "Forex Loss" was also from TZ.

No operating or capital income/gain or loss from TZ in 2016.


Without the other income from selling assets what profit did KK make? Thanks

I don't know but a number I shall look for in the Annual Report.

That's very important in forecasting.
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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VituVingiSana
#647 Posted : Thursday, March 24, 2016 10:27:50 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,354
Location: Nairobi
If you can open it.

https://gallery.mailchim...efing_March_2016.01.pdf

Investor Briefing FY 2015 @Kausha @Aguy
Let's get the champagne ready!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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murchr
#648 Posted : Friday, March 25, 2016 4:04:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
VVS what am trying to bring out is the fact that we cant work with the current EPS given that the income booked from sale of assets in DRC and Tz will not be present in 2016. In my layman understanding, if the sale of assets was about 1.2B take that out of the 2.5B they made and add the 470m loss from discontinued operations....then you can kinda have some hypothesis.

Correct me if am wrong
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, March 25, 2016 4:05 AM | Reason: Not specified
Cde Monomotapa
#649 Posted : Friday, March 25, 2016 7:19:33 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Next exit Br. This co. is morphing into a real estate firm.
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Aguytrying
#650 Posted : Friday, March 25, 2016 7:41:46 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
If you can open it.

https://gallery.mailchim...efing_March_2016.01.pdf

Investor Briefing FY 2015 @Kausha @Aguy
Let's get the champagne ready!


Thanks. Awesome. This is the stuff I should be reading instead of that KQ thread.

Noticed @Cde is MIA from this thread.

The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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