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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Plain and simple. This market has not bottomed! I stated this thread in 2011 and the bottoming patterns I highlighted are not present in the current market. And worse the global stocks are flashing ugly sellside signals since Aug 2015. Keep your eyes fixed on Japan. The show should start from there. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:Plain and simple. This market has not bottomed!
I stated this thread in 2011 and the bottoming patterns I highlighted are not present in the current market. And worse the global stocks are flashing ugly sellside signals since Aug 2015.
Keep your eyes fixed on Japan. The show should start from there. I agree. Evidence is good results being sold industry wide, demand is drying up even in top performers like kk. I can tell in a few months we'll be staring at the bidless vacuum The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Quite interesting to see mpesa bank afloat through the solid sellside period from March 2015. With most counters underwater if mpesa bank were to lose the 14 handle support, NSE20 would be testing sub 3500 levels! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,182 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:Quite interesting to see mpesa bank afloat through the solid sellside period from March 2015. With most counters underwater if mpesa bank were to lose the 14 handle support, NSE20 would be testing sub 3500 levels! i think equity markets experience more bears than bulls "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:Quite interesting to see mpesa bank afloat through the solid sellside period from March 2015. With most counters underwater if mpesa bank were to lose the 14 handle support, NSE20 would be testing sub 3500 levels! Very puzzling from safcom I would have expected it to be in the 12-13zone by now but so far it has put up an almost impregnable defense of the indices. NSE20 is out running the NASI in losses with the latter roughly tracking KES weakness. Mid and small caps are yet to have their day in the cleaners. If we are to have a bottom, then lots and lots of shavings are in waiting. In addition, the banks still seem to be all cosy despite an NPL overhang plus reduced NIM's are yet to reflect on their bottomline. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,182 Location: nairobi
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http://www.nation.co.ke/...4/-/15svec5/-/index.html"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,182 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Dangote-urges-investors-to-ride-on-2015-down-turn/-/996/3129094/-/15svec5/-/index.html it's planting time. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Not yet? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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What is the sign to look for? .If only it were that easy to tell.But opportunities to make money have presented themselves,i saw @sparkly trade Kengen from 5,Britam has done a 10 to 13 for those who took it up or KK from 8s to current levels.I have done KCB from 37 to 42.5 and Starnchart from 190s to 247-250(both sold i now sit out and see those first quarter numbers first) and Bamburi for the dividend yield. Trading good companies is for me the way to go,if the above tanked after i got in, the dividends would have kept me going waiting for prices to recover.Just keep off the Mumias,KQ,Uchumi and fellow junk counters.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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cnn wrote: What is the sign to look for? .If only it were that easy to tell.But opportunities to make money have presented themselves,i saw @sparkly trade Kengen from 5,Britam has done a 10 to 13 for those who took it up or KK from 8s to current levels.I have done KCB from 37 to 42.5 and Starnchart from 190s to 247-250(both sold i now sit out and see those first quarter numbers first) and Bamburi for the dividend yield. Trading good companies is for me the way to go,if the above tanked after i got in, the dividends would have kept me going waiting for prices to recover.Just keep off the Mumias,KQ,Uchumi and fellow junk counters. Thanks very much. I was warned about MSC na nilikipata! John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Go to post #1. Different conditions at the moment and worse we have the banking sector in a fix. When banks trip you hold your cash for you can't tell when the next shoe will fall off. The market will only form a proper floor in such an environment when the liquidity taps are flood opened. The CB has to do a sizable rate cut or initiate other market operation tools for sizable liquidity injection.
The market has been pessimistic since last yeart then when the weak recovery was building up another bank falls!
To shift extreme sentiments you need to shock the market the other way. The CB will have to come out with a bazooka KES be damned!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:Go to post #1. Different conditions at the moment and worse we have the banking sector in a fix. When banks trip you hold your cash for you can't tell when the next shoe will fall off. The market will only form a proper floor in such an environment when the liquidity taps are flood opened. The CB has to do a sizable rate cut or initiate other market operation tools for sizable liquidity injection.
The market has been pessimistic since last yeart then when the weak recovery was building up another bank falls!
To shift extreme sentiments you need to shock the market the other way. The CB will have to come out with a bazooka KES be damned!
Market anxiety is palpable. Participants are getting fidgety by the day. The indices have been literally mark timing since Q4 2015. I am no chartist/technical analyst but the only other period we had such a scenario was immediately after we hit the all time high of 6161. A quick slide then a stagnation/back and forth action between a narrow range of 4800-5300 for nearly a year. In the meantime, while those levels held steady the fundies kept deteriorating. Back to present conditions, even the collapse of chase bank seems not to have dented anything. The economy is definitely not in good shape, the govt managed to dodge the January/February payday on its ever growing debt burden. ..how long till this cat and mouse game comes to its inevitable end, pressing forward with the second eurobond to me is reckless or an act of desperation. Global economy is not a source of consolation either. IMF is dead set to unleash hell on account of a Brexit. So again, how long till the indices cave in? The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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hisah wrote:Go to post #1. Different conditions at the moment and worse we have the banking sector in a fix. When banks trip you hold your cash for you can't tell when the next shoe will fall off. The market will only form a proper floor in such an environment when the liquidity taps are flood opened. The CB has to do a sizable rate cut or initiate other market operation tools for sizable liquidity injection.
The market has been pessimistic since last yeart then when the weak recovery was building up another bank falls!
To shift extreme sentiments you need to shock the market the other way. The CB will have to come out with a bazooka KES be damned!
@Hisah look at the NSE/DJIA 5yr chart. The two decoupled beginning 2015. DJIA seems to have formed a double bottom in the last 9 months and poised to go higher.  Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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sparkly wrote:hisah wrote:Go to post #1. Different conditions at the moment and worse we have the banking sector in a fix. When banks trip you hold your cash for you can't tell when the next shoe will fall off. The market will only form a proper floor in such an environment when the liquidity taps are flood opened. The CB has to do a sizable rate cut or initiate other market operation tools for sizable liquidity injection.
The market has been pessimistic since last yeart then when the weak recovery was building up another bank falls!
To shift extreme sentiments you need to shock the market the other way. The CB will have to come out with a bazooka KES be damned!
@Hisah look at the NSE/DJIA 5yr chart. The two decoupled beginning 2015. DJIA seems to have formed a double bottom in the last 9 months and poised to go higher. Dow is depicting international flight to quality flows. Return OF CAPITAL is the new norm! But will Dow stay afloat while S&P and Nasdaq look heavy while euroland is on a tailspin and Jap is poised to meltdown anytime?$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2007 Posts: 294
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I note that the following situation prevails at the moment
1. Tbill rates are back to single digit levels (9%) for the last 2 weeks and there is nothing to suggest they are going back up soon.
2. The two banks that were offering high fixed deposit rates have collapsed and investors are bound to be scared of similar banks
3. The shilling has been stable since the beginning of the year
4. Stock prices are at their lowest in recent times
Do these factors suggest that we may see a flight of domestic capital towards the stock market within the next 2-4weeks?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,182 Location: nairobi
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instinct wrote:I note that the following situation prevails at the moment
1. Tbill rates are back to single digit levels (9%) for the last 2 weeks and there is nothing to suggest they are going back up soon.
2. The two banks that were offering high fixed deposit rates have collapsed and investors are bound to be scared of similar banks
3. The shilling has been stable since the beginning of the year
4. Stock prices are at their lowest in recent times
Do these factors suggest that we may see a flight of domestic capital towards the stock market within the next 2-4weeks?
many thought after results releasing season ends the market with start a second tanking but many stocks have since recovered from their all time lows,this is when i ignore every prophet and act as myself "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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mlennyma wrote:instinct wrote:I note that the following situation prevails at the moment
1. Tbill rates are back to single digit levels (9%) for the last 2 weeks and there is nothing to suggest they are going back up soon.
2. The two banks that were offering high fixed deposit rates have collapsed and investors are bound to be scared of similar banks
3. The shilling has been stable since the beginning of the year
4. Stock prices are at their lowest in recent times
Do these factors suggest that we may see a flight of domestic capital towards the stock market within the next 2-4weeks?
many thought after results releasing season ends the market with start a second tanking but many stocks have since recovered from their all time lows,this is when i ignore every prophet and act as myself The market will tank. It is a matter of time before we see another deeper leg south. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 6/30/2014 Posts: 86 Location: nairobi
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Spikes wrote:mlennyma wrote:instinct wrote:I note that the following situation prevails at the moment
1. Tbill rates are back to single digit levels (9%) for the last 2 weeks and there is nothing to suggest they are going back up soon.
2. The two banks that were offering high fixed deposit rates have collapsed and investors are bound to be scared of similar banks
3. The shilling has been stable since the beginning of the year
4. Stock prices are at their lowest in recent times
Do these factors suggest that we may see a flight of domestic capital towards the stock market within the next 2-4weeks?
many thought after results releasing season ends the market with start a second tanking but many stocks have since recovered from their all time lows,this is when i ignore every prophet and act as myself The market will tank. It is a matter of time before we see another deeper leg south. Prophet of doom  Hauchoki??
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/19/2016 Posts: 31 Location: Kenya
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lochaes wrote:Spikes wrote:mlennyma wrote:instinct wrote:I note that the following situation prevails at the moment
1. Tbill rates are back to single digit levels (9%) for the last 2 weeks and there is nothing to suggest they are going back up soon.
2. The two banks that were offering high fixed deposit rates have collapsed and investors are bound to be scared of similar banks
3. The shilling has been stable since the beginning of the year
4. Stock prices are at their lowest in recent times
Do these factors suggest that we may see a flight of domestic capital towards the stock market within the next 2-4weeks?
many thought after results releasing season ends the market with start a second tanking but many stocks have since recovered from their all time lows,this is when i ignore every prophet and act as myself The market will tank. It is a matter of time before we see another deeper leg south. Prophet of doom Hauchoki?? Been reading through different threads and exactly the same thought crossed my mind! It would be interesting to know which counter(s) @Spikes holds  The Best is Yet to Come
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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NSE20 might hit 4000 next week "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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