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KenolKobil FY15 Earnings up 85%
Aguytrying
#41 Posted : Sunday, March 20, 2016 4:47:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@Spikes. Didn't you ride access from 22 to 4 then sold and missed out on take over? When you were QW?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Spikes
#42 Posted : Sunday, March 20, 2016 6:37:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Aguytrying wrote:
@Spikes. Didn't you ride access from 22 to 4 then sold and missed out on take over? When you were QW?


What do you mean by QW ? Qualified Wrestler or Quantified Winner ?
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
whiteowl
#43 Posted : Monday, March 21, 2016 10:21:47 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Been in this since 8/= and I'm not selling unless I see a crazy rally.The turnaround is complete and now it's all profits for the coming years.

capital gains aside for now, before I finish the final yr dividend,an interim will have been declared to keep me eating all year round,I saw something like 11.60 anything above 14 is very tempting so help me God to overcome temptations


When it hits 14 offload and relax. You will board @8 together with me!


If at 14 its overvalued and you reco sell why then would you be a buyer at 8? Wouldn't 8 be your fair value? Anyway, nothing has changed, management is great and I don't need the money now so there is no reason for me to sell.
mlennyma
#44 Posted : Monday, March 21, 2016 10:37:37 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
whiteowl wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Been in this since 8/= and I'm not selling unless I see a crazy rally.The turnaround is complete and now it's all profits for the coming years.

capital gains aside for now, before I finish the final yr dividend,an interim will have been declared to keep me eating all year round,I saw something like 11.60 anything above 14 is very tempting so help me God to overcome temptations


When it hits 14 offload and relax. You will board @8 together with me!


If at 14 its overvalued and you reco sell why then would you be a buyer at 8? Wouldn't 8 be your fair value? Anyway, nothing has changed, management is great and I don't need the money now so there is no reason for me to sell.

selling with a solid plan for the proceeds isn't a bad thing,as for me i don't have so my next focus is H1 2016,iam waiting to see where liquidity will head to with government yields falling and the imf facility which further keeps the govt more comfortable
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
whiteowl
#45 Posted : Monday, March 21, 2016 10:46:14 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
mlennyma wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Been in this since 8/= and I'm not selling unless I see a crazy rally.The turnaround is complete and now it's all profits for the coming years.

capital gains aside for now, before I finish the final yr dividend,an interim will have been declared to keep me eating all year round,I saw something like 11.60 anything above 14 is very tempting so help me God to overcome temptations


When it hits 14 offload and relax. You will board @8 together with me!


If at 14 its overvalued and you reco sell why then would you be a buyer at 8? Wouldn't 8 be your fair value? Anyway, nothing has changed, management is great and I don't need the money now so there is no reason for me to sell.

selling with a solid plan for the proceeds isn't a bad thing,as for me i don't have so my next focus is H1 2016,iam waiting to see where liquidity will head to with government yields falling and the imf facility which further keeps the govt more comfortable


Actually this year I expect a harsh liquidity vacuum coz of gov loan repayments so I reduced my stake at NSE .This is the only stock I'm left holding.
Aguytrying
#46 Posted : Monday, March 21, 2016 10:47:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Been in this since 8/= and I'm not selling unless I see a crazy rally.The turnaround is complete and now it's all profits for the coming years.

capital gains aside for now, before I finish the final yr dividend,an interim will have been declared to keep me eating all year round,I saw something like 11.60 anything above 14 is very tempting so help me God to overcome temptations


When it hits 14 offload and relax. You will board @8 together with me!


If at 14 its overvalued and you reco sell why then would you be a buyer at 8? Wouldn't 8 be your fair value? Anyway, nothing has changed, management is great and I don't need the money now so there is no reason for me to sell.

selling with a solid plan for the proceeds isn't a bad thing,as for me i don't have so my next focus is H1 2016


Looking at the lack of demand today looks like we are headed back to comfort zone or the new comfort zone.

After a 30% gain on KK last Friday I only had 1 regret, why didn't I buy more at 8.00!? Lord knows I tried. If the bear pushes it back there I will be buying kk like no one's business. And the bear is strong. Equity, arm,printing lower lows today. This rally to 11 is just a foretaste of what is to come when the bulls return.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mlennyma
#47 Posted : Monday, March 21, 2016 11:01:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
whiteowl wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Been in this since 8/= and I'm not selling unless I see a crazy rally.The turnaround is complete and now it's all profits for the coming years.

capital gains aside for now, before I finish the final yr dividend,an interim will have been declared to keep me eating all year round,I saw something like 11.60 anything above 14 is very tempting so help me God to overcome temptations


When it hits 14 offload and relax. You will board @8 together with me!


If at 14 its overvalued and you reco sell why then would you be a buyer at 8? Wouldn't 8 be your fair value? Anyway, nothing has changed, management is great and I don't need the money now so there is no reason for me to sell.

selling with a solid plan for the proceeds isn't a bad thing,as for me i don't have so my next focus is H1 2016,iam waiting to see where liquidity will head to with government yields falling and the imf facility which further keeps the govt more comfortable


Actually this year I expect a harsh liquidity vacuum coz of gov loan repayments so I reduced my stake at NSE .This is the only stock I'm left holding.

lets watch as the maturity nears
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#48 Posted : Monday, March 21, 2016 11:11:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Been in this since 8/= and I'm not selling unless I see a crazy rally.The turnaround is complete and now it's all profits for the coming years.

capital gains aside for now, before I finish the final yr dividend,an interim will have been declared to keep me eating all year round,I saw something like 11.60 anything above 14 is very tempting so help me God to overcome temptations


When it hits 14 offload and relax. You will board @8 together with me!


If at 14 its overvalued and you reco sell why then would you be a buyer at 8? Wouldn't 8 be your fair value? Anyway, nothing has changed, management is great and I don't need the money now so there is no reason for me to sell.

selling with a solid plan for the proceeds isn't a bad thing,as for me i don't have so my next focus is H1 2016


Looking at the lack of demand today looks like we are headed back to comfort zone or the new comfort zone.

After a 30% gain on KK last Friday I only had 1 regret, why didn't I buy more at 8.00!? Lord knows I tried. If the bear pushes it back there I will be buying kk like no one's business. And the bear is strong. Equity, arm,printing lower lows today. This rally to 11 is just a foretaste of what is to come when the bulls return.

There's a Buffett quote/story that goes something like this:
If you see socks on discount this week, do you lament they weren't on discount last week or buy more pairs to last you a few more weeks when the price will likely be back to 'normal'?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#49 Posted : Tuesday, March 22, 2016 12:26:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
,National Oil Corporation of Kenya (NOCK) is set to announce plans to cut its cooking gas
package prices by over 60% (through a Government subsidy plan) to drive use of cleaner energy
in poor households and using innovative access methods such as community kitchens. The state
corporation aims to introduce 6.5m new cooking gas cylinders into Kenyan households over the
next three years at a cost of KES 5.6bn annually (June 2017- 1.3m additional, June 2018- {+2.2m,
June 2019 - +3.0m). A paltry 9% of Kenyan households use LPG, at an annual consumption of
70MT p.a. NOCK estimates latent/unrealized demand at 200MT p.a. Low cooking gas uptake in
Kenya is attributable to a mix of factors, among them inadequate infrastructure, high cost of
cooking and lighting equipment and a weak distribution network.
NOCK will reduce prices for 3kg and 6kg cooking gas packages by 64% and 61% respectively. The
project starts in July 2016 and will be financed through internally generated revenues, debt and
capital injection from partners. Distribution of the cylinders will be done mostly through women
and youth groups, an exercise expected to create employment opportunities for 1,500 to 2,000
women and youth groups. Kenya ranks among the lowest usage in Africa with a per capita
consumption of 2kg, below the continent’s average of 3kg. Ghana per capita consumption is at
5kg, South Africa 6kg, Senegal 10kg and Ivory Coast 9kg. 97% of Kenyan households use
traditional sources of cooking energy such as wood and charcoal. Kenya’s primary energy
consumption mix is at 68% for biomass, 22% for petroleum and 9% for electricity. NOCK is a
fully integrated State Corporation involved in all aspects of the petroleum supply chain covering
the upstream oil and gas exploration, midstream petroleum infrastructure development and
downstream marketing of petroleum products. ,
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mlennyma
#50 Posted : Tuesday, March 22, 2016 12:37:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
,National Oil Corporation of Kenya (NOCK) is set to announce plans to cut its cooking gas
package prices by over 60% (through a Government subsidy plan) to drive use of cleaner energy
in poor households and using innovative access methods such as community kitchens. The state
corporation aims to introduce 6.5m new cooking gas cylinders into Kenyan households over the
next three years at a cost of KES 5.6bn annually (June 2017- 1.3m additional, June 2018- {+2.2m,
June 2019 - +3.0m). A paltry 9% of Kenyan households use LPG, at an annual consumption of
70MT p.a. NOCK estimates latent/unrealized demand at 200MT p.a. Low cooking gas uptake in
Kenya is attributable to a mix of factors, among them inadequate infrastructure, high cost of
cooking and lighting equipment and a weak distribution network.
NOCK will reduce prices for 3kg and 6kg cooking gas packages by 64% and 61% respectively. The
project starts in July 2016 and will be financed through internally generated revenues, debt and
capital injection from partners. Distribution of the cylinders will be done mostly through women
and youth groups, an exercise expected to create employment opportunities for 1,500 to 2,000
women and youth groups. Kenya ranks among the lowest usage in Africa with a per capita
consumption of 2kg, below the continent’s average of 3kg. Ghana per capita consumption is at
5kg, South Africa 6kg, Senegal 10kg and Ivory Coast 9kg. 97% of Kenyan households use
traditional sources of cooking energy such as wood and charcoal. Kenya’s primary energy
consumption mix is at 68% for biomass, 22% for petroleum and 9% for electricity. NOCK is a
fully integrated State Corporation involved in all aspects of the petroleum supply chain covering
the upstream oil and gas exploration, midstream petroleum infrastructure development and
downstream marketing of petroleum products. ,

instead of partnering with other marketers to make kenyans embrace the use of cooking gas ,the government through nock plays dirty tricks to become a monopoly kind of ,this reminds me of a directive that all government vehicles must fuel at nock...the biggest threat to oil marketers is now definitely the government of kenya,how will other marketers counter this and still make their margins ??
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Aguytrying
#51 Posted : Tuesday, March 22, 2016 2:01:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@mlennyma. Do not worry, with the rampant corruption this can't last long, it will eventually die. Only in the short to medium term may it affect. But I can't see it working. This is probably those election money making schemes that die a natural death.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#52 Posted : Tuesday, March 22, 2016 2:24:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
@mlennyma. Do not worry, with the rampant corruption this can't last long, it will eventually die. Only in the short to medium term may it affect. But I can't see it working. This is probably those election money making schemes that die a natural death.

And then they can start filling up or exchanging their NOCK tanks at KK.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#53 Posted : Tuesday, March 22, 2016 3:14:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@mlennyma. Do not worry, with the rampant corruption this can't last long, it will eventually die. Only in the short to medium term may it affect. But I can't see it working. This is probably those election money making schemes that die a natural death.

And then they can start filling up or exchanging their NOCK tanks at KK.


Was thinking that too. If gova can't survive in industries where they are a monopoly like sugar, how will subsidies help them. The nock gas and may even be sold to omc to resell. It depends on how serious nock is about this but I don't have my hopes up.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
MaichBlack
#54 Posted : Tuesday, March 22, 2016 3:22:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,460
mlennyma wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
,National Oil Corporation of Kenya (NOCK) is set to announce plans to cut its cooking gas
package prices by over 60% (through a Government subsidy plan) to drive use of cleaner energy
in poor households and using innovative access methods such as community kitchens. The state
corporation aims to introduce 6.5m new cooking gas cylinders into Kenyan households over the
next three years at a cost of KES 5.6bn annually (June 2017- 1.3m additional, June 2018- {+2.2m,
June 2019 - +3.0m). A paltry 9% of Kenyan households use LPG, at an annual consumption of
70MT p.a. NOCK estimates latent/unrealized demand at 200MT p.a. Low cooking gas uptake in
Kenya is attributable to a mix of factors, among them inadequate infrastructure, high cost of
cooking and lighting equipment and a weak distribution network.
NOCK will reduce prices for 3kg and 6kg cooking gas packages by 64% and 61% respectively. The
project starts in July 2016 and will be financed through internally generated revenues, debt and
capital injection from partners. Distribution of the cylinders will be done mostly through women
and youth groups, an exercise expected to create employment opportunities for 1,500 to 2,000
women and youth groups. Kenya ranks among the lowest usage in Africa with a per capita
consumption of 2kg, below the continent’s average of 3kg. Ghana per capita consumption is at
5kg, South Africa 6kg, Senegal 10kg and Ivory Coast 9kg. 97% of Kenyan households use
traditional sources of cooking energy such as wood and charcoal. Kenya’s primary energy
consumption mix is at 68% for biomass, 22% for petroleum and 9% for electricity. NOCK is a
fully integrated State Corporation involved in all aspects of the petroleum supply chain covering
the upstream oil and gas exploration, midstream petroleum infrastructure development and
downstream marketing of petroleum products. ,

instead of partnering with other marketers to make kenyans embrace the use of cooking gas ,the government through nock plays dirty tricks to become a monopoly kind of ,this reminds me of a directive that all government vehicles must fuel at nock...the biggest threat to oil marketers is now definitely the government of kenya,how will other marketers counter this and still make their margins ??

They are targeting a different market. 3kg and 6kg cylinder. How many of you will switch to 3kg and 6kg cylinders because of the subsidy???
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
MaichBlack
#55 Posted : Tuesday, March 22, 2016 3:27:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,460
And this subsidies business is always an avenue for corruption.

The fellow who ate the maize money and the unga money now probably wants to eat gas money.

Why don't they just eliminate all the taxes related to LPG and it will be cheap across the board???
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Othelo
#56 Posted : Tuesday, March 22, 2016 3:35:46 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@mlennyma. Do not worry, with the rampant corruption this can't last long, it will eventually die. Only in the short to medium term may it affect. But I can't see it working. This is probably those election money making schemes that die a natural death.

And then they can start filling up or exchanging their NOCK tanks at KK.


Was thinking that too. If gova can't survive in industries where they are a monopoly like sugar, how will subsidies help them. The nock gas and may even be sold to omc to resell. It depends on how serious nock is about this but I don't have my hopes up.

This move explains why they have been shafting the current MS and want her out. Lucrative parastatal smile
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
Aguytrying
#57 Posted : Tuesday, March 22, 2016 3:55:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Othelo wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@mlennyma. Do not worry, with the rampant corruption this can't last long, it will eventually die. Only in the short to medium term may it affect. But I can't see it working. This is probably those election money making schemes that die a natural death.

And then they can start filling up or exchanging their NOCK tanks at KK.


Was thinking that too. If gova can't survive in industries where they are a monopoly like sugar, how will subsidies help them. The nock gas and may even be sold to omc to resell. It depends on how serious nock is about this but I don't have my hopes up.

This move explains why they have been shafting the current MS and want her out. Lucrative parastatal smile


exactly si they chucked the Indian lady a few months ago.

@maichblack has nailed it, why not make it cheap across the board?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
hisah
#58 Posted : Tuesday, March 22, 2016 4:15:27 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@aguy, the weekly chart is looking weak for KK. Lower prices coming up. 12 handle barrier is rejecting any bullish move. If prices closes @11 or lower by Friday, the reversal will be solid with target at 10 zone.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mlennyma
#59 Posted : Tuesday, March 22, 2016 4:37:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
@aguy, the weekly chart is looking weak for KK. Lower prices coming up. 12 handle barrier is rejecting any bullish move. If prices closes @11 or lower by Friday, the reversal will be solid with target at 10 zone.

the beauty is that after the rally kk will be looking cheap to the eyes of many sub 10 unlike before.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#60 Posted : Tuesday, March 22, 2016 5:53:24 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
,National Oil Corporation of Kenya (NOCK) is set to announce plans to cut its cooking gas
package prices by over 60% (through a Government subsidy plan) to drive use of cleaner energy
in poor households and using innovative access methods such as community kitchens. The state
corporation aims to introduce 6.5m new cooking gas cylinders into Kenyan households over the
next three years at a cost of KES 5.6bn annually (June 2017- 1.3m additional, June 2018- {+2.2m,
June 2019 - +3.0m). A paltry 9% of Kenyan households use LPG, at an annual consumption of
70MT p.a. NOCK estimates latent/unrealized demand at 200MT p.a. Low cooking gas uptake in
Kenya is attributable to a mix of factors, among them inadequate infrastructure, high cost of
cooking and lighting equipment and a weak distribution network.
NOCK will reduce prices for 3kg and 6kg cooking gas packages by 64% and 61% respectively. The
project starts in July 2016 and will be financed through internally generated revenues, debt and
capital injection from partners. Distribution of the cylinders will be done mostly through women
and youth groups, an exercise expected to create employment opportunities for 1,500 to 2,000
women and youth groups. Kenya ranks among the lowest usage in Africa with a per capita
consumption of 2kg, below the continent’s average of 3kg. Ghana per capita consumption is at
5kg, South Africa 6kg, Senegal 10kg and Ivory Coast 9kg. 97% of Kenyan households use
traditional sources of cooking energy such as wood and charcoal. Kenya’s primary energy
consumption mix is at 68% for biomass, 22% for petroleum and 9% for electricity. NOCK is a
fully integrated State Corporation involved in all aspects of the petroleum supply chain covering
the upstream oil and gas exploration, midstream petroleum infrastructure development and
downstream marketing of petroleum products. ,

instead of partnering with other marketers to make kenyans embrace the use of cooking gas ,the government through nock plays dirty tricks to become a monopoly kind of ,this reminds me of a directive that all government vehicles must fuel at nock...the biggest threat to oil marketers is now definitely the government of kenya,how will other marketers counter this and still make their margins ??

They are targeting a different market. 3kg and 6kg cylinder. How many of you will switch to 3kg and 6kg cylinders because of the subsidy???

I will. I use a 13kg tank but I will happily store it & use 6kgs at a discount. Plus I can always have a spare tank. In addition, the 3 & 6 kgs tank is useful for safaris!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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