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Is East Africa CABLES dead, alive or kicking?
Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 359
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I bought this stock 2 yrs ago @40 for medium to long-term. Ever since it has been on free fall. What is worse, it is about the only stock that is not recovering?
Anyone know the reasons (why)! I bought in coz of their regional expansion but alas!
Any one wanna give profitability forecasts on this one? Any hopes. I could hold for another 3 yrs, coz the dividends r not bad, but is it ever gonna bring capital gain?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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oops @ 40 you bought at a verry inflated price...even at the current price its still trading at 4x its book value...so its still expensive...if i were you i would cost average and bail out...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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@the deal - Why cost average if it is too expensive at this price? Why not just bail? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 359
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Yep,my worst stock decision 2008! I shud bail.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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@slykat this stock is very expensive in terms of book value and has very limited growth potential... though it may benefit from kenya's impending infrastructure boom... but i honestly dont think you can recover your money any time soon... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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slykat wrote:I bought this stock 2 yrs ago @40 for medium to long-term. Ever since it has been on free fall. What is worse, it is about the only stock that is not recovering?
Anyone know the reasons (why)! I bought in coz of their regional expansion but alas!
Any one wanna give profitability forecasts on this one? Any hopes. I could hold for another 3 yrs, coz the dividends r not bad, but is it ever gonna bring capital gain? @Slykat 2 years ago most stocks were overpriced but you couldn't tell as we were all riding a strong bull. The exception would be the likes of BAT and Mumias. If the economy recovers strongly then you might reap a handsome profit. I hope you are well diversified because Cables is a prickly basket to put all your eggs in. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 359
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@sparkly
How very true! I bought at the top of the bull crest. The bubble had to bust. I am well diversified across all sectors except the now lucrative agrics, oops. plus the cable bit was a small inv. It is just that it is an irritant in my portfolio.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/7/2010 Posts: 1,279 Location: nbi
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Never sell at a loss unless the company is surely going burst. It makes twice an idiot. First for buying at an inflated price and secondly for selling at a loss when you don't need to.. The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 359
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Hehehe... Wa_ithaka, I get the message. But dont buy it, u can theoretically pull out of a non-performer and go into say, mumias@10 and in two yrs, mumias is say 25 while centum is still 22 or thereabouts... not so?
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 359
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sorry, meant to say Cables - not Centum.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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slykat wrote:Hehehe... Wa_ithaka, I get the message. But dont buy it, u can theoretically pull out of a non-performer and go into say, mumias@10 and in two yrs, mumias is say 25 while centum is still 22 or thereabouts... not so? How hard can it be to read value in a business and hence stock?? Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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Fyatu wrote:slykat wrote:Hehehe... Wa_ithaka, I get the message. But dont buy it, u can theoretically pull out of a non-performer and go into say, mumias@10 and in two yrs, mumias is say 25 while centum is still 22 or thereabouts... not so? How hard can it be to read value in a business and hence stock?? @ Fyatu you are such a digger  . You had to pull this all the way from 2010 and bring it today when Mumias is hardly breathing  Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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Gatheuzi wrote:Fyatu wrote:slykat wrote:Hehehe... Wa_ithaka, I get the message. But dont buy it, u can theoretically pull out of a non-performer and go into say, mumias@10 and in two yrs, mumias is say 25 while centum is still 22 or thereabouts... not so? How hard can it be to read value in a business and hence stock?? @ Fyatu you are such a digger . You had to pull this all the way from 2010 and bring it today when Mumias is hardly breathing They are plenty more speculative thoughts in wazua....Hellos and New farers be wary Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 359
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Tehehehehe,
Lesson: hindsight is a perfect judge!!!
There is a correction somewhere there ... I meant EACables ... not Centum ... and a qualification ... theoretically.
I had a great deal of faith in Centum and still hold it to-date (bought at about avg 21.95 pre rights and post rights).
Mumias was speculative and all the rave at the time because of the Tana Delta Project that never took off. Wazuans were then beating the drums - into a frenzy - for it .. led by Mumias expert Njung'e so I took a few (2000) as a pure gamble. I still hold the junk. If Tana Delta had taken off... we would be talking a different story. But of course no one here in Wazua knew about the looting of Mumias .. if they did they kept a damn good secret of it. (if Njung'e didnt know abou the looting -- nobody else knew. He was the go-to man for Mumias.)
In the final analysis followed Waithaka and ignored the laggards (even though the offending peace was a disagreement with him). The loss was in the region of 60% at EACB and at Mumias. Beyond salvage. I still have them. I wrote them off enouraged by phenomenal gains on SafCom, KCB and Centum.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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moral of the story is that trying to predict the future is like trying to make a chicken swallow a needle......very difficult. However understanding what a business does and how it makes profits/losses goes a long way Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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http://wazua.co.ke/forum.aspx?g=posts&t=22986
Going fwd remember this http://www.businessdaily...8/-/pv0n6s/-/index.html["There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/14/2014 Posts: 288 Location: nairobi
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moral of the story.avoid businesses that sell commodities that are not easy to differentiate I find satisfaction in owning great business,not trading them
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Is East Africa CABLES dead, alive or kicking?
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