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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
VituVingiSana
#531 Posted : Monday, March 14, 2016 9:35:20 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,354
Location: Nairobi
FY 2015 results out on 18th.

I expect a spectacular 1Q as oil price have remained (on average) sub-40 for the period through 14 March. Add the reduction of debt in 1Q 2016 and increase in total volumes sold/consumed ---> Things are looking up for KK in 2016.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Realtreaty
#532 Posted : Monday, March 14, 2016 10:00:25 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,387
The grass is really green and we can see it from fr and near as we persevering Wildbeestes come back brunching.
Ohana won't let his hustlers down. 40cts final dividend to make it 50Cts total. Or could we be invited for a Buffet and get 90cts to make it 1Kes FY2015?smile smile
Aguytrying
#533 Posted : Monday, March 14, 2016 10:04:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Realtreaty wrote:
The grass is really green and we can see it from fr and near as we persevering Wildbeestes come back brunching.
Ohana won't let his hustlers down. 40cts final dividend to make it 50Cts total. Or could we be invited for a Buffet and get 90cts to make it 1Kes FY2015?smile smile


You really need to go easy on that stuff
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#534 Posted : Monday, March 14, 2016 10:46:30 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,354
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
The grass is really green and we can see it from fr and near as we persevering Wildbeestes come back brunching.
Ohana won't let his hustlers down. 40cts final dividend to make it 50Cts total. Or could we be invited for a Buffet and get 90cts to make it 1Kes FY2015?smile smile


You really need to go easy on that stuff

Whatever @RealTreaty smokes isn't made by BAT.
Whatever @RealTreaty drinks isn't brewed by EABL.
Perhaps what @RealTreaty sniffs is sold by KK.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Realtreaty
#535 Posted : Tuesday, March 15, 2016 12:25:42 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,387
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
The grass is really green and we can see it from fr and near as we persevering Wildbeestes come back brunching.
Ohana won't let his hustlers down. 40cts final dividend to make it 50Cts total. Or could we be invited for a Buffet and get 90cts to make it 1Kes FY2015?smile smile


You really need to go easy on that stuff

Whatever @RealTreaty smokes isn't made by BAT.
Whatever @RealTreaty drinks isn't brewed by EABL.
Perhaps what @RealTreaty sniffs is sold by KK.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly ....and Man I can use KK card to get ample discount on what it brews or rolls!!!!!!smile smile
Aguytrying
#536 Posted : Wednesday, March 16, 2016 2:55:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
FROM SIB.

We update our valuation on Kenya’s listed oil marketers, KenolKobil Limited (KenolKobil) and Total Kenya Limited (Total). We retain a BUY recommendation for both KenolKobil (fair value KES 13.53; 24.1% upside) and Total (fair value KES 41.02; 135.7% upside). Ahead of results, 2015 should have been yet another robust year with KenolKobil 2015 EPS coming in at KES 1.40, up 89.1%y/y and Total at a reported EPS of KES 1.85, down 18.1%y/y. The weakness in Total is likely driven by price/inventory management challenges. Throughput in Total’s stations should have grown on the back of a remodeling and beautification of outlets as well as higher demand (+14.6y/y).

With average oil price (Murban crude) having fallen 9.7%y/y in 2014; 47.2%y/y down in 2015, downstream companies have been unchained from the requirements of very high working capital, with the sector now enjoying generally better gross margins. We expect global oil prices to remain below USD 50 per barrel for a considerable period as demand picks up on excess supply. This scenario is likely to anchor short to medium term profitability for downstream operations despite a 16% VAT increase due in August 2016.

We think Total had challenges in profitability management, as evidenced by 1H15 numbers. We have upgraded KenolKobil on sustained management comments for what we consider a surprisingly quick debt pay down (KES 8.5bn in June 2015 to KES 2.8bn in Feb 2016) - even when we consider disposal of the Tanzania subsidiary (& Democratic Republic of Congo storage facility) at an estimated price of KES 1.6bn. In 2016, we feel remarkably comfortable about margin sustenance and a likely uptick in volumes (despite some domestic tax increases). Volume demand growth will also be boosted by GDP rise with regulatory stability sustaining overall industry attractiveness, especially in Kenya and most regional subsidiaries.

FROM SIB.

KK target 13.53
TOTAL target 41.02
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#537 Posted : Wednesday, March 16, 2016 3:13:59 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,354
Location: Nairobi
@Aguy - And the forecast FY 2016 EPS = 2.13 [a little early to tell but let's see what Ohana says on Friday and during the AGM].
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Spikes
#538 Posted : Wednesday, March 16, 2016 3:19:58 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Aguy - And the forecast FY 2016 EPS = 2.13 [a little early to tell but let's see what Ohana says on Friday and during the AGM].


If institutional investors or high net worthy individuals joins the race then your dreams of kes 13.xy will come true on Friday. But if the relay is left for completion by timid Joan and Tom don't expect much even if it is a material announcement. I am writing prophetically.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
Aguytrying
#539 Posted : Wednesday, March 16, 2016 3:21:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Aguy - And the forecast FY 2016 EPS = 2.13 [a little early to tell but let's see what Ohana says on Friday and during the AGM].


Optimism is taking over with this counter. At least we know the realistic targets. The silver bullet for KK will be when they upgrade their stations to be as classy and trusted/ customer care friendly like TOTAL, shell.

My issue with total are those preference shares, the company is held over 90% by one shareholder, that makes me uncomfy.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Realtreaty
#540 Posted : Wednesday, March 16, 2016 3:23:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,387
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Aguy - And the forecast FY 2016 EPS = 2.13 [a little early to tell but let's see what Ohana says on Friday and during the AGM].

Total at 41.02 is much more far fetched unless they will bring back the Concorde Supersonic jet to Kenya. I believe KK can even do better and will steal the show in 2016 when they will lso be constructing their own office block.
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