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DTB FY15 earnings up 11.4%
Pesa Nane
#1 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 10:34:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
Dividend Ksh. 2.50 Per Share

Bonus 1:10


Full Results Link: https://goo.gl/VIjGGT
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
mlennyma
#2 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 10:37:59 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
Pesa Nane wrote:
Dividend Ksh. 2.50 Per Share

Bonus 1:10

bonusApplause
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Pesa Nane
#3 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 10:40:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
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Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
Pesa Nane
#4 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 10:53:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
300 shares @Ksh. 215 teaser goes through, supply dries up
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
Aguytrying
#5 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 11:37:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
DTB Vs NIC VS IM for long long term?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Arconnrk
#6 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 11:56:23 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/23/2015
Posts: 35
Good stuff with profit growth and similar stories of over 20% growth for net interest and non-interest income.

I personally expected flat profits or worse given what other 2nd tier banks (Barclays, NIC and CFC Stanbic) had posted but cautious DTB has achieved this despite more than doubling its loan loss provision (which was moving upwards each quarter of last year)

Their borrowing was also rising through 2015- would be interested to see what the final full year figure was and what was the source.

Did their rescue efforts with imperial bank win them new customers? perhaps the balance sheet will also show the effect of this.

All in all I breathe a sigh of relief.

PS- why are a number banks taking a deferred tax credit this year- is it just to spice up results?
Even the birds can testify...but you forget the chief has his son as the judge and his son-in-law as interpreter- Oumar Ba
VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 12:44:49 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
DTB Vs NIC VS IM for long long term?


All are well-run banks. Tough to choose. I would go on metrics BUT

DTB - An awesome regional footprint that beats much larger KCB & Equity in the spread of its footprint. Plus they have been in TZ & UG for much longer than either of the giants.

NIC - Growth focus is on Kenya. Low hanging fruits. The Family aka Ndegwas will limit its growth due to capital constraints. Good news is that expansion is viewed with abundant caution.

I&M - Slow but sure growth. Capital injections limited since "The Family" [like NIC's Ndegwas] don't want to lose control BUT it also means they look to expand PROFITABLY instead of expanding because they can.

Anyway, as a LONG-TERM purchase, all are good IMHO. Very hard to pick one.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Arconnrk
#8 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 12:59:42 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/23/2015
Posts: 35
Aguytrying wrote:
DTB Vs NIC VS IM for long long term?


Something I've also wondered about from time to time. Keen to hear wazuans' thoughts.

Let me say upfront that I'm biased to DTB since its the one I've already bought into. The size and quality of the loan book and the steady, under-the-radar growth won me over. Whatever crisis may arrive whether interest rate spike or currency fall and they just raise their loss provisions, keep calm and carry on. The management don't deviate much from their SME lending culture. They do come to us time and again to raise capital in rights issues but can't complain since the money only strengthens the bank further.

I accept that I&M has many of the same loanbook quality virtues + probably the lowest expenses/income margin amongst the listed banks.

NIC is less attractive to me, being the smallest of the three in asset size (at least based on I&M's Q3 figures)- and I'm not so sure it could withstand financial shocks like the other two. But hey, perhaps its the smallest ones that have the largest room to grow. I stand to be corrected but I think the other two have had better performing foreign subsidiaries than NIC.

So if I couldn't get DTB at a good price(I've been a buyer at between 180 and 190), I'd probably be tempted by I&M
Even the birds can testify...but you forget the chief has his son as the judge and his son-in-law as interpreter- Oumar Ba
Aguytrying
#9 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 1:50:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@VVS, arc. Nice input. I'm in that dilemma for a long time. What draws me to the 3 is the management and as @VVS put it conservative growth. I had put a peg of 150 for DTB that did not materialise. After the bonus and rally from 180, I should probably have pulled the trigger like @arc. It was starting to tempt me at 180.

I&M in my mind is so similar to DTB in the the good qualities.. Which makes it hard to separate the 2. I M has also become very visible of late and is clearly going for the retail market.

Nic is the most fairly valued on a pe and p/b using current market price and is where I have dived in. There's only drawback being less regional footprint.

It's only a matter of time for these 3 to be become highly profitable as financial penetration deepens. I think Dtb currently has the x factor. Very confusing
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
MadDoc
#10 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 2:16:31 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/26/2015
Posts: 151
Supply has dried up..some prick has the gall to place a 350/ sell order
PKoli
#11 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 2:26:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
Aguytrying wrote:
@VVS, arc. Nice input. I'm in that dilemma for a long time. What draws me to the 3 is the management and as @VVS put it conservative growth. I had put a peg of 150 for DTB that did not materialise. After the bonus and rally from 180, I should probably have pulled the trigger like @arc. It was starting to tempt me at 180.

I&M in my mind is so similar to DTB in the the good qualities.. Which makes it hard to separate the 2. I M has also become very visible of late and is clearly going for the retail market.

Nic is the most fairly valued on a pe and p/b using current market price and is where I have dived in. There's only drawback being less regional footprint.

It's only a matter of time for these 3 to be become highly profitable as financial penetration deepens. I think Dtb currently has the x factor. Very confusing


@VVS,

Nice piece. I have never looked at I&M. I have been following DTB and NIC. Dived into NIC lately. Will consolidate NIC. I have been to their branches in Uganda and like their service.

I am in KCB for long haul and in Equity following James Mwangi's passion.
murchr
#12 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 3:05:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Aguytrying
#13 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 5:01:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
PKoli wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@VVS, arc. Nice input. I'm in that dilemma for a long time. What draws me to the 3 is the management and as @VVS put it conservative growth. I had put a peg of 150 for DTB that did not materialise. After the bonus and rally from 180, I should probably have pulled the trigger like @arc. It was starting to tempt me at 180.

I&M in my mind is so similar to DTB in the the good qualities.. Which makes it hard to separate the 2. I M has also become very visible of late and is clearly going for the retail market.

Nic is the most fairly valued on a pe and p/b using current market price and is where I have dived in. There's only drawback being less regional footprint.

It's only a matter of time for these 3 to be become highly profitable as financial penetration deepens. I think Dtb currently has the x factor. Very confusing


@VVS,

Nice piece. I have never looked at I&M. I have been following DTB and NIC. Dived into NIC lately. Will consolidate NIC. I have been to their branches in Uganda and like their service.

I am in KCB for long haul and in Equity following James Mwangi's passion.


I'm conflicted as follows. I want to hold 3 banking counters. Two tier 1. Kcb, equity. And one tier 2. Nic or Dtb or I M.

Or one tier 1 and two tier 2. But this seems abit risky.

Equity is a no brainer in both cases. Between kcb, nic, Dtb, I M. Which 2 should I pick??

I've already started buying nic and kcb below 40. But I'm still undecided. It's really confusing
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 6:50:48 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
PKoli wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@VVS, arc. Nice input. I'm in that dilemma for a long time. What draws me to the 3 is the management and as @VVS put it conservative growth. I had put a peg of 150 for DTB that did not materialise. After the bonus and rally from 180, I should probably have pulled the trigger like @arc. It was starting to tempt me at 180.

I&M in my mind is so similar to DTB in the the good qualities.. Which makes it hard to separate the 2. I M has also become very visible of late and is clearly going for the retail market.

Nic is the most fairly valued on a pe and p/b using current market price and is where I have dived in. There's only drawback being less regional footprint.

It's only a matter of time for these 3 to be become highly profitable as financial penetration deepens. I think Dtb currently has the x factor. Very confusing


@VVS,

Nice piece. I have never looked at I&M. I have been following DTB and NIC. Dived into NIC lately. Will consolidate NIC. I have been to their branches in Uganda and like their service.

I am in KCB for long haul and in Equity following James Mwangi's passion.


I'm conflicted as follows. I want to hold 3 banking counters. Two tier 1. Kcb, equity. And one tier 2. Nic or Dtb or I M.

Or one tier 1 and two tier 2. But this seems abit risky.

Equity is a no brainer in both cases. Between kcb, nic, Dtb, I M. Which 2 should I pick??

I've already started buying nic and kcb below 40. But I'm still undecided. It's really confusing

After FY 2015, and after the accounting treatment of NPLs, I am leery of KCB. It remains a favorite of foreign investors but I'd rather be in a firm that foreign investors have not discovered.

Equity - Mwangi & the x-factor. I remain a fan. DRC. Mobile Banking.

NIC - The NPLs are SCARY. Have a look. They doubled from 7 to 14bn. If these NPLs aren't restructured or start performing then the Provisions [a low Provisions to NPLs ratio] will need to be bumped up by a huge margin.

DTB - What more is there to say? [I don't see it as an acquisition target due to the Aga Khan ownership & community ties]

I&M - A core holding for me. Profits have performed. Price has not. I am a-OK with that. My gut feeling is that of all the Tier 2 banks, I&M is one that could be acquired for its 'smallish but wealthy' client base, geographic footprint and clean loan book.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#15 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 7:40:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
PKoli wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@VVS, arc. Nice input. I'm in that dilemma for a long time. What draws me to the 3 is the management and as @VVS put it conservative growth. I had put a peg of 150 for DTB that did not materialise. After the bonus and rally from 180, I should probably have pulled the trigger like @arc. It was starting to tempt me at 180.

I&M in my mind is so similar to DTB in the the good qualities.. Which makes it hard to separate the 2. I M has also become very visible of late and is clearly going for the retail market.

Nic is the most fairly valued on a pe and p/b using current market price and is where I have dived in. There's only drawback being less regional footprint.

It's only a matter of time for these 3 to be become highly profitable as financial penetration deepens. I think Dtb currently has the x factor. Very confusing


@VVS,

Nice piece. I have never looked at I&M. I have been following DTB and NIC. Dived into NIC lately. Will consolidate NIC. I have been to their branches in Uganda and like their service.

I am in KCB for long haul and in Equity following James Mwangi's passion.


I'm conflicted as follows. I want to hold 3 banking counters. Two tier 1. Kcb, equity. And one tier 2. Nic or Dtb or I M.

Or one tier 1 and two tier 2. But this seems abit risky.

Equity is a no brainer in both cases. Between kcb, nic, Dtb, I M. Which 2 should I pick??

I've already started buying nic and kcb below 40. But I'm still undecided. It's really confusing

After FY 2015, and after the accounting treatment of NPLs, I am leery of KCB. It remains a favorite of foreign investors but I'd rather be in a firm that foreign investors have not discovered.

Equity - Mwangi & the x-factor. I remain a fan. DRC. Mobile Banking.

NIC - The NPLs are SCARY. Have a look. They doubled from 7 to 14bn. If these NPLs aren't restructured or start performing then the Provisions [a low Provisions to NPLs ratio] will need to be bumped up by a huge margin.

DTB - What more is there to say? [I don't see it as an acquisition target due to the Aga Khan ownership & community ties]

I&M - A core holding for me. Profits have performed. Price has not. I am a-OK with that. My gut feeling is that of all the Tier 2 banks, I&M is one that could be acquired for its 'smallish but wealthy' client base, geographic footprint and clean loan book.


Brilliant. That will certainly help. Let me dig into the results of all of them. DTB and I M, ticks more boxes than kcb, nic. Though I consider all good future investments. Thanks
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Boris Boyka
#16 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 7:44:35 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
@Vvs do you see Equity having a better day in regional expansion through mobile banking cooperation with Airtel given airtel has more foot in other African countries?
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
obiero
#17 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 7:51:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,549
Location: nairobi
Boris Boyka wrote:
@Vvs do you see Equity having a better day in regional expansion through mobile banking cooperation with Airtel given airtel has more foot in other African countries?

@vvs knows very little about banking so I will take the liberty of answering on his behalf! Equity can only achieve massive mobile success in Kenya. Even UG and TZ have refused to catch the 'mpesa' buzz.. Its a Kenyan thing for now. And to make matters worse, the tie up between KCB &SCOM has left the brown bank naked.. They will survive though.. But KCB will be head and shoulders above

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
Pesa Nane
#18 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 8:06:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
obiero wrote:
Boris Boyka wrote:
@Vvs do you see Equity having a better day in regional expansion through mobile banking cooperation with Airtel given airtel has more foot in other African countries?

@vvs knows very little about banking so I will take the liberty of answering on his behalf! Equity can only achieve massive mobile success in Kenya. Even UG and TZ have refused to catch the 'mpesa' buzz.. Its a Kenyan thing for now. And to make matters worse, the tie up between KCB &SCOM has left the brown bank naked.. They will survive though.. But KCB will be head and shoulders above

Memba has thrown regional expansion into the deep freezer
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
enyands
#19 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 8:40:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
Pesa Nane wrote:
obiero wrote:
Boris Boyka wrote:
@Vvs do you see Equity having a better day in regional expansion through mobile banking cooperation with Airtel given airtel has more foot in other African countries?

@vvs knows very little about banking so I will take the liberty of answering on his behalf! Equity can only achieve massive mobile success in Kenya. Even UG and TZ have refused to catch the 'mpesa' buzz.. Its a Kenyan thing for now. And to make matters worse, the tie up between KCB &SCOM has left the brown bank naked.. They will survive though.. But KCB will be head and shoulders above

Memba has thrown regional expansion into the deep freezer


Same thing with kk.expansion should be handled with extreme caution .
VituVingiSana
#20 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2016 9:55:35 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Boris Boyka wrote:
@Vvs do you see Equity having a better day in regional expansion through mobile banking cooperation with Airtel given airtel has more foot in other African countries?

Yes.
Equity released a 'roadmap' called Equity 3.0 2-3 years ago. And "Mobile" was the CORE of 3.0 that provided a cheaper channel for MOST of their customers.

Mwangi said that not all [Corporate] customers can migrate to Mobile but most of the retail customers can move most of their banking needs online/mobile [supplemented by agents/ATMs] and the branches become 'Sales Centers' for cross-selling, etc.

Airtel - It can be used to piggyback Equitel into different markets. Airtel is present in UG, TZ, RW where Equity has a presence. All Equity needs to do is tweak the menu for each market. Of course, it is not as easy as that but Equity is up to the task.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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