To start with. let us look at one counter = kenokobil.
Technical analysis alone no news

Keno was on a downtrend before august 2015 as evident below.


It made a small rally to a high of 9.35, dropped to a low of 7.85. Since then it has been on the rise exceeding the high in the last 52 weeks which was 10.5.
Question 1. Should I be long now? Yes
Question 2. Until which price level? Between 12 and 11.5 or at the most ambitious target of 14
Question 3. Why those levels? Coz we might have a complex or just a simple retracement following profit taking or some kind of news
Question 4. Will the rally be over? No comments for now.
Question 5. Should I sell now? No
This is keno as on 2nd march 2016



STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis

Cool!

@karasingha - In English, please.

You said: "if we have hit the first two probable wave count(5 of c or wave 5 of 3), it is time to sell.
if we have wave c of 4 in the making, its is going to be messy down and you might not like the ride."

1) Have we hit "5 of c or wave 5 of 3"? ... There's no point in telling me there is a pothole AFTER I have hit it.
2) So would you sell as of Friday at 10.60? Yes or No. [Not the "sell if it rains on Monday between 2pm-3pm in Langata but it doesn't count if you don't get wet because you had an umbrella" predictions.
3) After we have definite answers, let's chat on Friday [18th] after the results are released.

@vituvingisana.
my analysis MIGHT be wrong especially wave count or the comment i made. but b4 we wait for 18th, let us do a deeper postmortem of the data we have currently and have all the possibilities b4 hand. let me explain.

when i said ""if we have hit the first two probable wave count(5 of c or wave 5 of 3), it is time to sell." this is what was in my mind. if the rally keno has been on since july 28th 2015(kindly refer to my first post i made concerning keno), then we have two options in offing.
1. corrective wave up. ie ABC
2. 1st 5 impulse up

having said that, so far we have completed either ( 3 of 3 or 3 of c). that means we have the following waves remaining
1. correction of wave 4 of 3 or 4 of c THEN
2. wave 5 of 3 or 5 of c THEN
3. wave 4 then
4. wave 5
in wave 4 correction,this should be in mind. If wave two of an impulse is a sharp correction, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. so do we have wave 4 of 3 or 4 of c in place already? could be yes could be no.this is because we still have another possibility, wave A OF 4. This said and done, the high of 11 made on 2nd march 2016 exceeded the 1st target of 10.96 by 0.04 making a bearish RSI(14) divergence(when RSI peaks that diverge within a short spread apart is a strong signal) as below.


a closer look on the chart


a closer look on the RSI


what are possible wave count that ended @ 11?
1. wave 5 of 3 or
2. wave 5 of c or
3. wave b of 4

if we hit the wave 5 of 3 then we are making wave 4 of 3. when i said it might be messy is because wave 4 tend to form complex wave(triangle or single or double zigzag) and may take time b4 it is done. the decision to sell will depend on the type of trader you are. if a long term trader, you can wait until we hit wave 5 of 5 or 5 of c. if a short term/swing trader, you can sell and buy at a lower price and ride on a rally that would end wave 3. still there would be wave 4 and 5 to complete the 5 impulse wave that started on july 28th 2015(5 IMPULSE WAVE).NOTE: wave 3 is always associated with good news.

if we hit wave 5 of c, then that might be the end of keno rally(corrective wave ABC) and so a 5 impulse wave will start downward.and "its is going to be messy down and you might not like the ride"

if we hit wave b of 4, then we have the last wave of wave 4 of 3 that would follow a rally that would would end the end of wave 3. still there would be wave 4 and 5 to complete the 5 impulse wave that started on july 28th 2015(5 IMPULSE WAVE).

hope i explained my analysis better now. I still welcome anyone's opinion and inputs on my analysis. Apologies for late analysis


STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter's direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis

So @karasinga just to check if am getting you right,....the expected high is 14?

I am planning to play trader with KK sell and buy periodically so this kind of analysis will help. Thanks a bunch.

@ murchr
that kind of trading is what they call swing trading. i dont known what wazuan's recommendation are regarding swing trading vs buy and hold. i will try to post up to date charts to see where we are going.

@ vituvingisana
my apologies if this information in any way was too complex for you. stick around may be the technical analysis may start solving some of the dilemmas you might have had, if any,in the past.

I agree, maybe some of the more experienced with charts and all should start a knowledge sharing thread, not even necessarily for forecasting those on the NSE but to help guys get a gist of it all.

Or does someone have any pointers?

@karasinga...the so many wazua are traders, but they are currently chasing money in other markets. The market setting right now doesn't allow very active trading anyway (T+3 Settlement). So I will be timing the markets as the price swings. In other news KK hit Kes 11.xy today.

http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...625&p=22#post717715

I was absolutely correct with my prophecy.