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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
sparkly
#381 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 5:52:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
10.25 has printed.
The 'revelation' that KK can pay off all its debt by June 2016 is very good news.

Projects to fund:
1) BP/Castrol plant 500mn
2) New Office Building: 1.5bn

KK has $28mn in debt [says Ohana]. Let's make a huge assumption it's $10mn [anyone with more info? The Annual Report doesn't have enough detail] came from sale of assets & inventories in TZ and DRC so net debt is $18mn.

So if KK can make $6mn cash per month (18/3) that's PBT [assuming cash = profits] of 600mn/month x 12 months = 7.2bn x 70% (tax) = 5bn ... Are talking of EPS KES 3/share in 2016?
*Note that the reduction is debt is also helped by the REDUCTION in the cost of inventory thanks to low(er) fuel prices not just profits*

Let me dial down my enthusiasm. Let's say KK makes just 2/- in 2016. Elections in 2017. Let's stick with 2/- for 2017. What would it be worth in 2018 as a Takeover Target?


The Shs2.8 billion debt could be after the sale of the TZ congo assets.... Whis would make the EPs calculations higher, so your probably right.

Lets stick with EPS of 2.0, remember i mentioned this EPS not too long ago.

at least 30.00 per share. The most profitable fuel marketer in kenya, debt free, attractive assets...


KK Euphoria is back! This share excites like a buibui & hijab covered girl flashing her knees Laughing out loudly I hope this time we, the long suffering KK shareholders will get to eat the fruit.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Impunity
#382 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 5:57:47 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,331
Location: Masada
Eti atia? Time for Obiero to hit back VVS?

d'oh!
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

Impunity
#383 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 6:00:02 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,331
Location: Masada


I HAVE BEEN DEBT FREE.
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

Cde Monomotapa
#384 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 6:03:48 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
If i was the chairman of the board i would propose a 1 for 20 bonus and 30cts dividend to reward those who stood by me when i was drowning. at close of business today nobody was willing to sell at 10.20Applause


Applause Applause I cant remember the last time we could say that about KK. No supply! its been unheard of for 4 -5 years! BTW this time the bus may have left the station for good, unless the claws of the bear are too strong.

Kk share could not gain much for the last 2 years because informed investors were still doubting their recovery plans,this left wanjikus speculating on small gains,now the recovery plan is confirmed lets wait and see


Ona!! Imesemekana, kumbe ni kweli.. all ready to raid the company! Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly


Maka aka Wakili Bonoko. Uko?
Cde Monomotapa
#385 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 6:16:58 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
streetwise wrote:
I don't understand, si there other shares in the market why only these two choices unless your money is already tied in there in which case you have no choices to make but to bind time


You know when you get burnt, you look for your friends who are not burning to disturb them Laughing out loudly


Signed: vvs

Cde Monomotapa
#386 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 6:19:23 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
streetwise wrote:
I don't understand, si there other shares in the market why only these two choices unless your money is already tied in there in which case you have no choices to make but to bind time


You know when you get burnt, you look for your friends who are not burning to disturb them Laughing out loudly


Signed: vvs



MYOB: Cde
VituVingiSana
#387 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 6:47:54 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,351
Location: Nairobi
@Aguy - 30 may be ambitious BUT I will take it Applause Applause Applause

I see it as a (potential) takeover target in 2018 after the elections.
UG - Elections done
RW - 2017
BU - Elections done but...
Ethiopia - De Facto One Party state

If Ethiopia opens up a little by 2018 then that's additional value.
If KK can get paid by settlement or cash by KPC & KPRL. Icing.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#388 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 6:51:40 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Quote:
@CDE. so would you rather a stock that stagnates over a 4 year period (KK). Or a stock that loses >80% of its value (KQ 50 - 4.50)


Vvs has answered that extensively Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly that his foresight is forever shattered!!

KK. Moves synonymous to how Berkshire moved stealthily out of textile or just an asset flipper like SCBK.

Let's see the results.

Remember, buy low, sell high smile

mlennyma
#389 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 7:01:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Aguy - 30 may be ambitious BUT I will take it Applause Applause Applause

I see it as a (potential) takeover target in 2018 after the elections.
UG - Elections done
RW - 2017
BU - Elections done but...
Ethiopia - De Facto One Party state

If Ethiopia opens up a little by 2018 then that's additional value.
If KK can get paid by settlement or cash by KPC & KPRL. Icing.

any share gaining in a bear must have a silver lining in it,now surely this arbitration money is long overdue let abdinassir stop much talk and conclude it
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Realtreaty
#390 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 7:33:47 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,387
sparkly wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
10.25 has printed.
The 'revelation' that KK can pay off all its debt by June 2016 is very good news.

Projects to fund:
1) BP/Castrol plant 500mn
2) New Office Building: 1.5bn

KK has $28mn in debt [says Ohana]. Let's make a huge assumption it's $10mn [anyone with more info? The Annual Report doesn't have enough detail] came from sale of assets & inventories in TZ and DRC so net debt is $18mn.

So if KK can make $6mn cash per month (18/3) that's PBT [assuming cash = profits] of 600mn/month x 12 months = 7.2bn x 70% (tax) = 5bn ... Are talking of EPS KES 3/share in 2016?
*Note that the reduction is debt is also helped by the REDUCTION in the cost of inventory thanks to low(er) fuel prices not just profits*

Let me dial down my enthusiasm. Let's say KK makes just 2/- in 2016. Elections in 2017. Let's stick with 2/- for 2017. What would it be worth in 2018 as a Takeover Target?


The Shs2.8 billion debt could be after the sale of the TZ congo assets.... Whis would make the EPs calculations higher, so your probably right.

Lets stick with EPS of 2.0, remember i mentioned this EPS not too long ago.

at least 30.00 per share. The most profitable fuel marketer in kenya, debt free, attractive assets...


KK Euphoria is back! This share excites like a buibui & hijab covered girl flashing her knees Laughing out loudly I hope this time we, the long suffering KK shareholders will get to eat the fruit.

Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
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