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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
hisah
#5381 Posted : Monday, September 21, 2015 4:27:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Where are we?should we expect any further downside or what we saw was the worst?I have some money to utilise

from macros perspective, i expect the USD bulls to chicken out just like the FED,offering the much needed relief to EM and FM currencies including Kenya, atleat in the short run. MPC will also put a freeze on the cbr hikes(for now) and this will be a good thing for NSE bulls.
Globally, i expect a gradual selloff in the US markets as investors begin to lose confidence in FED's ability to jump start the economy 7 years into easing. EM and FMs as well as gold will rally hard as a result.
Back to KE, i suggest you go in into liquid, solid stocks for ease of exit.

Short term reaction USD will be sold. But soon reality will strike back and USD will initiate another rally. Most likely the yen will be the reason. Yens, euros and pounds will go down before USD.

The bond market will puke soon forcing the USD rate hike as confidence evaporates. That hike will be sudden as the survival match begins. The chingman has fired a shot more are coming. Markets will tank as the bidless vacuum creates a sizable sink hole in the bond market when confidence evaporates from public debt as govts default.

2016 is still a sellside yr in my opinion. Gold will of course rally as public debt comes apart. Shaken confidence will focus trust in gold as capital flees govt/public debt.

A few yrs later equity holders that buy the selloff will be better of than bond holders owning worthless bonds with a lot of currency devaluation carnage.

Keep an eye on Japan, the confidence crisis will likely start there if not in the eurozone.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Ericsson
#5382 Posted : Monday, September 21, 2015 4:27:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,671
Location: NAIROBI
Vultures preying on gems in the Nairobi Stock exchange.
Ata Kenya Re that we keep shunning it's being preyed and its on top ten list of Norwegian Pension Fund.

http://www.businessdaily...2/-/5l3royz/-/index.html
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Othelo
#5383 Posted : Monday, September 21, 2015 4:36:35 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
[quote=Ericsson]Vultures preying on gems in the Nairobi Stock exchange.
Ata Kenya Re that we keep shunning it's being preyed and its on top ten list of Norwegian Pension Fund.

http://www.businessdaily.../-/5l3royz/-/index.html[/quote]

From the Article of BD........

The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund holdings includes a 2.86 per cent stake in ScanGroup, ARM Cement (1.65 per cent), Nation Media Group (1.06 per cent), KCB Group (0.97 per cent), Bamburi Cement (0.95 per cent) and 0.77 per cent Kenya Re shareholding.


Others are East African Breweries Ltd (0.69 per cent), Safaricom (0.33 per cent) Equity Bank (0.06 per cent), Mumias Sugar (0.05 per cent) and an undisclosed stake in Co-op Bank.

smile
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
lochaz-index
#5384 Posted : Monday, September 21, 2015 5:33:16 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
hisah wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Where are we?should we expect any further downside or what we saw was the worst?I have some money to utilise

from macros perspective, i expect the USD bulls to chicken out just like the FED,offering the much needed relief to EM and FM currencies including Kenya, atleat in the short run. MPC will also put a freeze on the cbr hikes(for now) and this will be a good thing for NSE bulls.
Globally, i expect a gradual selloff in the US markets as investors begin to lose confidence in FED's ability to jump start the economy 7 years into easing. EM and FMs as well as gold will rally hard as a result.
Back to KE, i suggest you go in into liquid, solid stocks for ease of exit.

Short term reaction USD will be sold. But soon reality will strike back and USD will initiate another rally. Most likely the yen will be the reason. Yens, euros and pounds will go down before USD.

The bond market will puke soon forcing the USD rate hike as confidence evaporates. That hike will be sudden as the survival match begins. The chingman has fired a shot more are coming. Markets will tank as the bidless vacuum creates a sizable sink hole in the bond market when confidence evaporates from public debt as govts default.

2016 is still a sellside yr in my opinion. Gold will of course rally as public debt comes apart. Shaken confidence will focus trust in gold as capital flees govt/public debt.

A few yrs later equity holders that buy the selloff will be better of than bond holders owning worthless bonds with a lot of currency devaluation carnage.

Keep an eye on Japan, the confidence crisis will likely start there if not in the eurozone.


Japan is like a financial Frankenstein lab.They surely have to go down first and trigger the crumbling of the house of cards.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
streetwise
#5385 Posted : Monday, September 21, 2015 7:18:09 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
Since the percentages are so low you are allowed to used basis points instead of percentage e.g. increase the shareholding of EABL by 69 basis points
mwekez@ji
#5386 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 11:26:31 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah
#5387 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 5:49:10 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977

Not at all! Actually the market has just begun the downside journey! The next swift rebound that will ensue on this temporary bottom should be used as an 'out of jail' escape card.

Fundies are so horrible. GoK debt bomb will nuke this market next year. Then election fever will be there to spike the cocktail further.

From the cartoon world side, the market has consistently broken down crucial support levels. The break down of the 7yr support trendline pinned at the GFC low is a nasty signal. This trendline can also be extended towards the 2002 low to make it a 13yr support line. This is very bad and signals that maniac risk taking will be out the window and for a long time.

Globally junk bonds will cause chaos next year as the party stops. Keep an eye on the unfolding events at Deutsche bank and Glencore. They are also signalling that the maniac global risk taking party is coming to a halt soon.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Pesa Nane
#5388 Posted : Thursday, December 10, 2015 6:14:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
......
all the pre-independence threads are revived!
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
murchr
#5389 Posted : Thursday, December 10, 2015 6:22:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
We'll know this on Dec 18th
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#5390 Posted : Friday, December 11, 2015 5:27:31 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
We'll know this on Dec 18th

Dec 16 is the day the Fed may hike the USD funding rate. One messy affair coming up considering that ECB is cranking its QE at the same time. This won't end well Pray Pray

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
kryptonite
#5391 Posted : Saturday, December 12, 2015 11:54:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/1/2010
Posts: 272
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
murchr wrote:
We'll know this on Dec 18th

Dec 16 is the day the Fed may hike the USD funding rate. One messy affair coming up considering that ECB is cranking its QE at the same time. This won't end well Pray Pray




Will*
The harder you work, the luckier you get
lochaz-index
#5392 Posted : Saturday, December 12, 2015 12:41:40 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
kryptonite wrote:
hisah wrote:
murchr wrote:
We'll know this on Dec 18th

Dec 16 is the day the Fed may hike the USD funding rate. One messy affair coming up considering that ECB is cranking its QE at the same time. This won't end well Pray Pray




Will*


Not at all. If the market events of the past one week are any kind of signal, the fed may chicken again.

Monday and Tuesday will probably be huge sell off days for stock markets across the globe and bond markets are increasingly getting jittery as yields spike. Actually to some degree it looks like the August chaos which happened before the much talked about September hike.

To hike in such an environment will take some serious fortitude which I don't think the fed is endowed with.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
holycow
#5393 Posted : Sunday, February 07, 2016 9:50:26 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 971
Location: Home
Not talking Hope earnings seasons brings good tidings.
snipermnoma
#5394 Posted : Tuesday, February 09, 2016 6:53:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
holycow wrote:
Not talking Hope earnings seasons brings good tidings.


With this bear around, it does not seem likely.
Spikes
#5395 Posted : Tuesday, February 09, 2016 6:58:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
snipermnoma wrote:
holycow wrote:
Not talking Hope earnings seasons brings good tidings.


With this bear around, it does not seem likely.


Bear is over. NSE 20index advancing towards 4000 points handle.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
snipermnoma
#5396 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2016 11:41:51 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
Spikes wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
holycow wrote:
Not talking Hope earnings seasons brings good tidings.


With this bear around, it does not seem likely.


Bear is over. NSE 20index advancing towards 4000 points handle.


I see the index has been advancing the last 2 weeks from 3745 to 3853. While that is the case, it does not necessarily mean the bear is over.
Cornelius Vanderbilt
#5397 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2016 3:12:54 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/15/2015
Posts: 817
eiiish! people have been so accustomed and familiar with the bear they think nothing but a bear
littledove
#5398 Posted : Tuesday, March 22, 2016 9:41:08 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 903
Location: sky
Equity Market Commentary Standard investment bank
Retreating for the second straight week, the NSE 20 Index was down 0.3%w/w (-2.3%
YTD). The NASI and NSE 25 indices
were up 0.5%w/w (-0.01% YTD) and 0.5%w/w (+0.8%YTD)respectively.
Equity turnover rose 20.5%w/w to USD 39.74m. Foreign investors were net sellers for the sixth straight week with net outflows at USD 7.4m (highest in 2016).
For the fourth straight week, Safaricom
(+1.2%w/w)was the top mover accounting for
29.2% of market activity.
Equity Bank, which remained unchanged at KES 41.75, unseated EABL to record the highest net foreign outflows at USD 2.3m. EABL recorded net foreign outflows for the third straight week at USD 1.5m compared to USD 1.12m
. On block tradesdone mid -week, BAT recorded the highest net foreign inflows at USD 328.4k.
Following robust FY15 numbers, KenolKobil was up 7%w/w to close at a 52 week high of KES11.40
on continued foreign investor buying.Up
18.8% YTD, KenolKobil is the best
performing counter in 2016. Also on notable foreign investor buying, NSE gained 5.4%w/w
to close at a one month high of KES 24.25.
On foreign investor selling(net outflows of USD 1.2m), Diamond Trust Bank reversed gains
made in the previous week after it declined 4.1%w/w.
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
maka
#5399 Posted : Tuesday, March 22, 2016 9:59:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
littledove wrote:
Equity Market Commentary Standard investment bank
Retreating for the second straight week, the NSE 20 Index was down 0.3%w/w (-2.3%
YTD). The NASI and NSE 25 indices
were up 0.5%w/w (-0.01% YTD) and 0.5%w/w (+0.8%YTD)respectively.
Equity turnover rose 20.5%w/w to USD 39.74m. Foreign investors were net sellers for the sixth straight week with net outflows at USD 7.4m (highest in 2016).
For the fourth straight week, Safaricom
(+1.2%w/w)was the top mover accounting for
29.2% of market activity.
Equity Bank, which remained unchanged at KES 41.75, unseated EABL to record the highest net foreign outflows at USD 2.3m. EABL recorded net foreign outflows for the third straight week at USD 1.5m compared to USD 1.12m
. On block tradesdone mid -week, BAT recorded the highest net foreign inflows at USD 328.4k.
Following robust FY15 numbers, KenolKobil was up 7%w/w to close at a 52 week high of KES11.40
on continued foreign investor buying.Up
18.8% YTD, KenolKobil is the best
performing counter in 2016. Also on notable foreign investor buying, NSE gained 5.4%w/w
to close at a one month high of KES 24.25.
On foreign investor selling(net outflows of USD 1.2m), Diamond Trust Bank reversed gains
made in the previous week after it declined 4.1%w/w.


Without foreigners the market would be completely dead like a dodo....
possunt quia posse videntur
lochaz-index
#5400 Posted : Tuesday, March 22, 2016 10:13:21 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
littledove wrote:
Equity Market Commentary Standard investment bank
Retreating for the second straight week, the NSE 20 Index was down 0.3%w/w (-2.3%
YTD). The NASI and NSE 25 indices
were up 0.5%w/w (-0.01% YTD) and 0.5%w/w (+0.8%YTD)respectively.
Equity turnover rose 20.5%w/w to USD 39.74m. Foreign investors were net sellers for the sixth straight week with net outflows at USD 7.4m (highest in 2016).
For the fourth straight week, Safaricom
(+1.2%w/w)was the top mover accounting for
29.2% of market activity.
Equity Bank, which remained unchanged at KES 41.75, unseated EABL to record the highest net foreign outflows at USD 2.3m. EABL recorded net foreign outflows for the third straight week at USD 1.5m compared to USD 1.12m
. On block tradesdone mid -week, BAT recorded the highest net foreign inflows at USD 328.4k.
Following robust FY15 numbers, KenolKobil was up 7%w/w to close at a 52 week high of KES11.40
on continued foreign investor buying.Up
18.8% YTD, KenolKobil is the best
performing counter in 2016. Also on notable foreign investor buying, NSE gained 5.4%w/w
to close at a one month high of KES 24.25.
On foreign investor selling(net outflows of USD 1.2m), Diamond Trust Bank reversed gains
made in the previous week after it declined 4.1%w/w.

Interesting observation by SIB. The current bear run started in mid March of last year in pretty much the same circumstances... Week on week losses till the trend was firm and one way. This officially could be the second and vicious leg.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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