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Realities of Forex Investment
tonicasert
#41 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2008 3:36:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
Well for me,i'd rather the bird in hand than 2 in the bush. So hit the TP first before the SL. Of course also looking at resistances and supports. We all have various strategies.


Xnjambi
#42 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2008 4:11:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/10/2008
Posts: 9
Tonicasert,

If you have a larger stop loss than a take profit you are suffering from one of the most dangerous emotions in trading - fear.

We all have our trading strategies but I think this forum is to help everyone be a better trader or investor. I beg all of you to take this gem from this discussion.

Someone asked me how comes FX traders and indeed stock traders are willing to hold on to losses longer than they can hold on for profits?

Indeed,strict probability theory (Alala wrongly calls it Chaos theory) would recommend that we look for a KNOWN FACT. Everybody seems to think that 90% of all traders lose money. Meaning 10% do not lose money. Meaning less than 10% make money.

If you are a new trader,it is logical to assume you are in the 90% of losers. Accordingly,expect 90% of your trades to be wrong and 10% to be right. This means your ratio of Take Profit to Stop Loss should be HIGHER THAN 9:1.

So if 90% of your trades are wrong,they will only hit the small Stop Loss (of value 1 in the 9:1 ratio). When you get it right,the trade will hit the large Take Profit (of value 9 in the 9:1 ratio). By simply tweaking this ratio from 9:1 to 10:1,you mathematically stack the odds in your favour.

Does this not make sense?

I need no inspiration to make money
tonicasert
#43 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2008 4:57:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
well,will try and apply that the probabilities. We all learn from each other.

Speaking of learning from each other: @StephenAlala,Xnjambi,Ngaatu,and others:

What technical indicators do you use?

My favourite indicators are EMA (14),Slow Stochs (5,3,3) and RSI (14). Stopped using MACD as I found it giving belated signals. Though momentum indicators can work against you in a trending market. Does anyone use fibbo's?
StephenAlala
#44 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2008 5:50:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 44
I may sound like a ranting madman but guess what - I do not use indicators at all (nor stop losses or take profits for that matter). I use the EDSAS (the Euro Dollar Swiss Arbitrage System) that we developed in house at Genius,apply to our clients portfolio and further converted into the automated trading software we are advertising at the top of this website. Our patent number as filed at the Kenya Industrial Property Institute is KE/P/08/00739.

Users outside Kenya or who do not want to have the computers online full time can subscribe their accounts to be traded under the EDSAS system by visiting geniusforex.zulutrade.com and linking their accounts to the signal provider called WallStreet40K. This allows for autotrading of your account without having to be online.

if you guys are interested I could explain to you the logic behind ESDSAS in this forum. But it will require some patience on your part.
NGAATU
#45 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2008 10:35:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 107

I think taking an equity risk at 8% toni is not only risky but somehow suicidal in the market.Given your figures that you take 8% risks with about 3-4 trades then go out for a long commercial break is somehow out of road Mr. Take for instance with capital of about $1000 having risk capital of 8% with about 3-4 trades is about 24% to 32% of your equity.This means you are ready to loose USD 240 to 320 with 1000!!!! In my opinion that is absolutely crazy no matter the strategy a person is using.

One thing remember is adhering and being disciplined to money management,which unfortunately most traders read it but dont practise it thus making the bulk of 90% of all losers.Most of novice/newbies traders imagine of hitting the big one as fast as they can which is always negative in the market.Its a feat which less that 1% have made it.

This is where greed and fear determines a lot in the money/risk management. My consideration is that i only see that risking 2% is the most sustainable for a novice/newbie and even proffesionals traders,though only proffesional traders with superior skills and systems may tempt to reach at least 5%! Recouping profits with 2% risk is easy than with 8%,if i go 3 trades with 2% that will only be 6% but with 8% it will be 24%!!! What are the chances of recouping back your profits with 8%,believe me it will be herculian task and maybe with that it will only need few trades to hit a dead end which will mean you will be managing losses but not trading profits!Mind you trading also depends on the volumes,so dont look things done by big volume guys they have enough to cushion themselves

. Equity This is the simple yet difficult to cope up with due to greed and expectations of making a kill fast. The trader risks only a predetermined amount of his or her account on a single trade. A common metric is to risk 2% of the account on any given trade. On a hypothetical $1,000 trading account,a trader could risk $20,or about 20 points,on one mini lot (10,000 units) of EUR/USD,or only 2 points on a standard 100,000-unit lot. Aggressive traders may consider using 5% equity stops,but note that this amount is generally considered to be the upper limit of prudent money management because 10 consecutive wrong trades would draw down the account by 50%.What about if it was 8%??

About stop loss and take profit i even think TP should always be larger that SL.Your risk reward ratio should be TP:SL at least 3:1 or 2:1 depending on your trading strategies and experience of the person in reading the market.Mind you toni you are here to make profits not loss managing,with TP of 30 and SL of 50 means that you may end up trading on how to regain losses rather than the opposite.Can you take a situation if your 3 or 4 trades go opposite,dont you see it will be only draining your capital(risk management) as Njambi said for a novice to go 9:1 may be also ultra conservative but factual as he wont have fear of losses if it goes against him.

On technicals i do like very few and simple to analyse and those give good directions,you know others misdirect!! Anyway i do like MACD(Favourite),Stoch R.S.I,R.S.I,Parabolic Sar.And others few but strong technicals which are at my custody.

I dont think online forex is properly regulated,its not regulated at all,thats a pity for all of us!!! And lets not be afraid to mention and expose the fraudsters who continue to put advert on our dailies of getting 20% per month or xxxx guaranteed returns.Lets not be afraid to safeguard this noble investment.

@NGAATU
PrimeCorp
#46 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 5:37:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/1/2008
Posts: 2
@Tonicasert The reason I mentioned Reuters 3000 is cause its the only platform who provide local banks USDKES quotes as I am keen on trading the shilling. I maybe wrong though? Do Brokers like FXCM or Oanda provide updated quotes from Kenyan banks?

On the issue of liquidity and bid/ask spread I haven't really seen much on the Reuters feed and usually the spreads are 20-30cents max. Could these indicative rate quotes on the feed be wrong as I wanted to use them as a benchmark before I call the banks treasuries.

The market also being not that fluid hopefully will give me some hedge aside from the open 9am quotes. From observation most local banks provide up to a tentative 6 quotes per day. I personally wont be needing leverage as most of my expected trades involve USDKES arbitrages I think are there(or at least from the looks of it and based on my analysis). Peculiar or even expectedly Citibank is the one who qoutes right before closing daily and their rates are most competitive. This in effect hopefully will help me hedge with a forward contract.

Do the local banks in Nairobi trade exotic derivatives,FX futures to be specific. I am interested in USDKES Options. Go long a KES call at X and short a put at X and I am long a synthetic average rate forward contract. Further can these be marked daily.

Sorry mate but am I making any sense here or such may not be feasible locally. Do you use Reuters feed personally,perhaps at work in a local treasury.

What about CBK against speculating the shilling?

Your feedback appreciated

Most people with degrees will never know true financial freedom because they are trapped in a high paying job but are still employees making a pre determined amount.
tonicasert
#47 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 1:22:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
@Ngaatu

Thanks for the insights. The 8% risk I take on the higher side. Otherwise on average i do 6%,and an average of 30pips TP and 30 pips SL,though dont necessarily stick to this.

@PrimeCorp

Unfortunately USDKES rate is only on Reuters. There was a cheaper internet version (not sure whether its been discontinued),which most forex bureaus use,or were using. Though it has a 2 mins delay. You can check with Reuters offices - Dvpt Bank Hse.

Afew of the big banks do give plain vanilla options on KES,though the mkt is not deep,so its usually back-to-back. Am not sure of the premiums.
StephenAlala
#48 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 3:02:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 44
PrimeCorp,

This may be off-point,but we do have two Kenyan banks as our clients with corporate accounts on FXCM. As we are a Primary (as opposed to ordinary) FXCM's RB,we provide special FXCM services as a special local FXCM support centre.

On another point,I am rapturously fascinated by that entire world of USDKES. How did you come across it?

As a lawyer,I can already see the problem CBK might have with USDKES speculation. Check out section 33A of the Central Bank of Kenya Act,Chapter 491 of the Laws of Kenya. You can access the laws for free from my other business' website www.LawsofKenya.com.
kizee
#49 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 4:11:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
stephen..my lord i guess im breakin the law becoz i speculate on kes all day for a livin

primetime....u cud get synthetic prices here..even offshore,however the premiums would kill you,ama ur talkin about say a zero cost structure?..wat notional amnt would u be willin to buy..anytg less than usd 1 mio would probably not be worth ur banks time...as far as accessin kes pxs..the fact that ours is a market maker market means that prices tend to lack transparency..the closest thing to gettin a transparent price however is a broker px..if u hav a rtrs dealing 3000 screen type MABEAFX...price quoted therein is live and best indicativ of the tru mkt level

as for tech signals...well im old school..trendlines primarily..i use fibos next..then ADX,+DI and -DI....then RSI..which i use to check for signs of divergence
tonicasert
#50 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 6:07:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
@ kizee... is this Chris?
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