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Realities of Forex Investment
Ms. Investor
#31 Posted : Saturday, August 02, 2008 11:41:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/2/2008
Posts: 4
The thread is entitled 'Realities of Forex Investment'and my response was specifically about the Forex Market so I will stick to exactly that. If about 90% of forex traders are losing money then it means that those making money are less than 10% which is a small number (no exact numbers even the CFTC does not have that information).

I agree all investments contain a certain degree of risk,my concern is that most brokers are not disclosing the risks of Forex to the public and that is why so many people are misled to think that this investment is an income guarantee type of business. Forex Trading is very risky and I do not recommend it to a lot of people. Only a few speculators have achieved the returns that you will see advertised on many websites. It takes a lot of time and effort to develop a good trading strategy and begin making some profit. What I recommend to anyone reading this thread is to carefully invest your money and time is studying the Forex and developing a trading strategy before jumping into the market. If a new trader,I suggest opening a demo account with one of the market makers in the U.S. for example Gain Capital or Oanda or FXCM. A demo account is free and will let you play around with the trading platform and get a feel of how it is to trade on your own. Another option is to invest your money into a Managed Account with a reputable Money Manager/trading system. The benefit of this is that you get to view the past performance of these programs before deciding whether to proceed with the investment. In addition,most of these brokers get paid by profit sharing so if you are not making money they don&rsquo;t get paid. I&rsquo;m not here to defame anyone but there is tons of free Forex Trading material online and yet some people pay loads of money for training that can be obtained for free. Further,if anyone is opening a self-trading account,you do not need to go through a Referring broker; you can contact the FCM (Market Maker) directly through their website and establish your account. There are no fees to open an account or to complete the paperwork; nobody should be paying any fees to establish an account. Unless,your broker is offering any value added services like free signals,charts (which most FCMs offer as well) then bypass the middle man and go directly with the trading platform provider. Now if you are the kind of person that finds it difficult to learn on your own and need mentoring and hand-holding,that&rsquo;s a different story&hellip;Please note that FCM&rsquo;s and the Referring Brokers get paid through the spread. If you are trading directly with the market maker,you will still get the same spread. So whether you are paying additional commission or not,the FCM and the Referring Broker are still making their money. Anyone interested in basic info on Forex trading,please visit http://www.nfa.futures.o...g/content/coverpage.htm

The NFA is the organization that regulates the Forex Industry in the US so there is no better source to begin learning forex trading than this...plus the information is absolutely free. Additional free study material can be provided upon request.

Thanks!


Trading financial instruments involves substantial risk of loss. Please seek the advice of an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
StephenAlala
#32 Posted : Monday, August 04, 2008 2:00:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 44
Ms. Investor and Ngaatu,could it be that FX is not unique in having 90% of its traders as losers?

Stocks and indeed,other investments may have the same 90% as losers.

Perhaps this would be clearer if people traded stocks and entered other investments with leverage of 400:1.

One other thing - do you think there is a special risk in FX being over the counter?
NGAATU
#33 Posted : Monday, August 04, 2008 4:36:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 107
I do concur Alala that forex is unique to other investments,thats why it calls a different approach.All financial markets have distinct differences and forex market is different due to level of risks and returns at the same time.

Its also true that most financial markets players make losses of even 90% its all because they are not discussed their factual performance to most wananchi.

Ms.Investor its true we are discussing a thread of forex.You need to remember that forex market its a type of market determined by the same fundamentals and technicals affecting other financial markets but the approach of tackling it requires different approach.Yes its true that is very hard to estimate the number of 10% of those who make it (as C.F.T.C does not have the figures) i guess its hard for c.f.t.c to say accurately the figures cause of the big number of market participants and it does not have a physical market place but by estimation of the number of players daily you cannot dispute that the 10% are numbering millions upon millions worldwide.

Of course forex market is not for any person due to the high nature of operations (i.e risks exposure,returns,management methods e.t.c).I also do think that not any investment is for anyone it will depend on the approach of the person,the risk appetite of the person,term duration of investment .....

Ms.investor having information and getting it on the internet for free and reading it and then tasting it is not for any person or any trader.There are hundreds of millions of information in the websites which a person can get but the difference is your analytical approach to the information got.If anybody can get information and start it then i will guess there consistency in the long run. Ms.Investor please can you assist us the reasons why many investors in the market are burnt and so its riskiness??

You need to realize the performance of the demo account will not be accurately your performance of a live account!Yes if you have tested the demo accounts and live accounts you can differentiate,the behaviors of some platforms in live accounts.What i do concur with you is that you need to invest time and knowledge in this investment.But Guiding a guy to test a demo account and then go into live account blindly you will make them complain a lot that its risky or bad and its only because of their approach as most are doing or have done that
.Mind you most brokers and website just want you to get the information they have without telling you the detailed approach of it.Be wary of that.And yes a fund manager should be a proven guy with consistency in his management and system.

@NGAATU
Xnjambi
#34 Posted : Monday, August 04, 2008 5:11:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/10/2008
Posts: 9
I imagined that all financial markets are influenced by greed and fear. I think the approach to all financial markets is the same. If you are good at stocks,you will be good in FX. If you are good in bonds,you will be good in FX.

I do not agree with Ms Investor when she says that you can go online and learn FX trading on your own instead of paying for it. I mean,it is possible - and I know some Harvard friends of mine who studied and learned botany at home. But these guys are way above average.

The normal chap needs guidance. For example - how does someone know to trade one lot per every ten thousand dollars of equity as opposed to every one thousand dollars?

What do you guys think is the proper risk? How many lots should I take per every USD 1,000 of equity?

I need no inspiration to make money
tonicasert
#35 Posted : Monday, August 04, 2008 9:31:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
XNjambi,

How many lots to be risked on equity is the $ 1M dollar question. It all comes down to how much of a risk taker you are.

- I've seen some seasoned traders talk of &quot;not risking 3-5% of your equity per trade&quot;.

- For institutional traders (banks etc),the trade,TP and SL limits are set by the management / board.

- Some brokers &quot;protect you&quot; by giving you less leverage ratio - For instance Oanda's maximum leverage is 1:50. I've seen some brokers giving leverage of upto 1:400! Thats suicidal,as most traders forget that leverage is a double edged sword: it can make or break BIG time.

Personally I look at it from the point of view &quot;how much loss am I willing to take compared to the equity?&quot; I find 6-8% loss of equity quite manageable.

So if say my capital is $ 1,000,and am an intraday trader working on a Stop Loss of 30-50 pips per trade,my trade size would be around $ 20,000 = [6% x 1,000 / 0.0030 pips].

Of course amount may deviate slightly depending on how strong one feel about the trade,technically or fundamentally.

This may be slow,but can consistence with discipline will get you there.

My 2pips worth...

Happy Trading




StephenAlala
#36 Posted : Monday, August 04, 2008 11:27:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 44
Well,my recommendation is risk only 3%. That is 0.1 for every USD 1,000 with a stop loss of 25 pips (include spread to get 30 pips). Indeed for a newbie trader I recommend 2% only to be risked. That means 0.1 lots for every USD 1,500 of equity (or in tonicasert's language,USD 10,000 trade for every USD 1,500 equity).

If you risk 8% it means that if 12 and one-half trades go wrong you are out of business. if you do 3%,you have at least a month of survival guaranteed if you trade once a day as an intra-day trader.

Tonicasert,what take profit do you recommend for your 50 pip stop-loss trade?
PrimeCorp
#37 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2008 12:46:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/1/2008
Posts: 2
I don't mean to crash the FX Party here,but any of you FX Traders trade Ksh locally? Perhaps some of you'll work in treasury. Familiarity with Reuters 3000 Xtra Hosted Terminal and its usage among local dealers. Discuss

Most people with degrees will never know true financial freedom because they are trapped in a high paying job but are still employees making a pre determined amount.
tonicasert
#38 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2008 2:20:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
StephenAlala,

On 8% risk,this is on the higher side if I feel strongly about the trade. If one does more than 4-5 consecutive losses,its advicable to take a break - either dont trade for a couple of days to get back your cool,or go back to demo.

TP- not aggressive,about 30 pips,on that SL.

PrimeCorp,

Reuters 3000 Xtra is abit expensive for an individual. Most of the info you have there (rates and news) you can also get from the brokers (FXCM has a very nice news software,and times like release of economic numbers,I observed the news flash comes exactly at the same time with 3000 Xtra). Not sure how much it is now but it was about GBP 1,500 per month per terminal,paid semi annually some 2-3 years ago. Most individual traders would only be trading FX flow,and maybe a few digital options. This will account to a very small percentage of the information you get from 3000 Xtra.


tonicasert
#39 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2008 2:34:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
primeCorp,

On USDKES,trading as an individual can be tricky:

- You need huge capital as the trading is not leveraged.

- The exchange will be done at a bank's spread,which is pretty wide compared to more liquid ccy like the majors.

- At times the market can move in minutes,and the same wont be reflected in the market immediately. For instance if the market starts moving aggressively at open (9am),you can be caught off guard by the time you are placing the order.

- I dont think CBK is for the idea of speculating KES,and part of their mandate is to stabalise market (forces of demand and supply).
StephenAlala
#40 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2008 3:22:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 44
Tonicasert,

Isn't a risk reward ratio of 30 pips TP to 50 pips SL bad chaos theory? The rationale is that your Take Profit should always be higher than your Stop Loss. The idea is that if you are trading without thinking,mathematically you'll be right 50% of the time and wrong 50% of the time.

Your research is supposed to change your chances to say 60% right and 40% wrong.

If your research abilities are bad and only serves to turn the table to 40% right and 60% wrong,the less frequently hit higher Take Profit will counter the more frequently hit (lower) Stop Loss. If your research is good,the more money you make.

Ideally,your Take Profit should be higher in pips than your Stop Loss.

What do you think?

Secondly,what do you guys think about regulation of Online FX in Kenya? Is it legal or are guys breaching some laws?
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