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Realities of Forex Investment
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hisah
#3341 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2016 1:14:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Next year the awesome trade will be selling pounds. Since 2014 the pound selling is gathering momentum.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Ceinz
#3342 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 6:37:49 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
Next year the awesome trade will be selling pounds. Since 2014 the pound selling is gathering momentum.


“small step for man”
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mnandii
#3343 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2016 7:15:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
My earlier outlook for a bull run in GU did not work out. However, this one below should.



Unless 1.4033 (the red line) is broken, I expect GU to rally strongly for at least 2000 pips (the two blue lines) in wave (2).



Bottom in place now at 1.4074.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3344 Posted : Wednesday, January 27, 2016 7:38:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


GBPJPY has bottomed at 164.42. Long target is above 196.00
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3345 Posted : Wednesday, January 27, 2016 7:41:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
My earlier outlook for a bull run in GU did not work out. However, this one below should.



Unless 1.4033 (the red line) is broken, I expect GU to rally strongly for at least 2000 pips (the two blue lines) in wave (2).



Bottom in place now at 1.4074.




If you are LONG, SL should now be raised to 1.4173 (the red line).

#best
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#3346 Posted : Wednesday, January 27, 2016 11:57:46 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@mnandii are your GBP plays short term? I hope so. Long term charts don't suggest a rosy outlook. GBP is heading down for a long time!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#3347 Posted : Sunday, January 31, 2016 6:03:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Now that BoJ has decided to implement NIR like ECB, this ensures it's now safe to short the yen. So another long term play is selling yens until BoJ comes out with another bazooka to change this devaluation stance.

Best play will be long USDJPY as yen funds rush into USD.

Btw this BoJ move is a nasty curveball for chingland. Another round of yuan devaluation is now very likely.

If the fed hikes rates in March the bottom will definitely be blown into pieces as the USD strength rips the markets apart!

But this strong USD will also be a problem for US. An epic bubble will form as it sucks in capital from everywhere. That bubble pop will definitely shake the global economy. A new reserve currency will emerge then during that chaotic pop.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Spikes
#3348 Posted : Sunday, January 31, 2016 10:18:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
hisah wrote:
Now that BoJ has decided to implement NIR like ECB, this ensures it's now safe to short the yen. So another long term play is selling yens until BoJ comes out with another bazooka to change this devaluation stance.

Best play will be long USDJPY as yen funds rush into USD.

Btw this BoJ move is a nasty curveball for chingland. Another round of yuan devaluation is now very likely.

If the fed hikes rates in March the bottom will definitely be blown into pieces as the USD strength rips the markets apart!

But this strong USD will also be a problem for US. An epic bubble will form as it sucks in capital from everywhere. That bubble pop will definitely shake the global economy. A new reserve currency will emerge then during that chaotic pop.


Let's keenly follow how currency wars unfold on the global stage. Will the KES sustain the pressure from dominant currencies ?
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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hisah
#3349 Posted : Sunday, January 31, 2016 1:17:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:
Now that BoJ has decided to implement NIR like ECB, this ensures it's now safe to short the yen. So another long term play is selling yens until BoJ comes out with another bazooka to change this devaluation stance.

Best play will be long USDJPY as yen funds rush into USD.

Btw this BoJ move is a nasty curveball for chingland. Another round of yuan devaluation is now very likely.

If the fed hikes rates in March the bottom will definitely be blown into pieces as the USD strength rips the markets apart!

But this strong USD will also be a problem for US. An epic bubble will form as it sucks in capital from everywhere. That bubble pop will definitely shake the global economy. A new reserve currency will emerge then during that chaotic pop.


Let's keenly follow how currency wars unfold on the global stage. Will the KES sustain the pressure from dominant currencies ?

The global trade currency is the USD. A strong USD will cause deflation as expenditure is cut back. KES as well as other currencies will come under huge pressure from this event. Unwinding $9 trillion in debt will definitely cause a liquidity vacuum event.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Spikes
#3350 Posted : Sunday, January 31, 2016 3:39:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
hisah wrote:
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:
Now that BoJ has decided to implement NIR like ECB, this ensures it's now safe to short the yen. So another long term play is selling yens until BoJ comes out with another bazooka to change this devaluation stance.

Best play will be long USDJPY as yen funds rush into USD.

Btw this BoJ move is a nasty curveball for chingland. Another round of yuan devaluation is now very likely.

If the fed hikes rates in March the bottom will definitely be blown into pieces as the USD strength rips the markets apart!

But this strong USD will also be a problem for US. An epic bubble will form as it sucks in capital from everywhere. That bubble pop will definitely shake the global economy. A new reserve currency will emerge then during that chaotic pop.


Let's keenly follow how currency wars unfold on the global stage. Will the KES sustain the pressure from dominant currencies ?

The global trade currency is the USD. A strong USD will cause deflation as expenditure is cut back. KES as well as other currencies will come under huge pressure from this event. Unwinding $9 trillion in debt will definitely cause a liquidity vacuum event.


Which means US territory will be flooded with liquidity thereby triggering inflation that could prompt Fed to apply emergency breaks on rate hikes. Still Asians countries-mainly China and Japan- are battling US efforts to resuscitate the interest rates trajectory. As time passes by the US economy will overheat and get back to a financial crisis as frontier markets reinvigorate the appreciation of their currencies and competitively remain in the balance with the ease of doing business.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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mnandii
#3351 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2016 7:00:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Gold should be sold as it rises toward 1160.60s or slightly above, with a SL at 1191.45. This trade should give at least 4000 pips in the coming month.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3352 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2016 7:02:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
Now that BoJ has decided to implement NIR like ECB, this ensures it's now safe to short the yen. So another long term play is selling yens until BoJ comes out with another bazooka to change this devaluation stance.

Best play will be long USDJPY as yen funds rush into USD.

Btw this BoJ move is a nasty curveball for chingland. Another round of yuan devaluation is now very likely.

If the fed hikes rates in March the bottom will definitely be blown into pieces as the USD strength rips the markets apart!

But this strong USD will also be a problem for US. An epic bubble will form as it sucks in capital from everywhere. That bubble pop will definitely shake the global economy. A new reserve currency will emerge then during that chaotic pop.


Expecting a strong down move in the pair toward 105.30s
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#3353 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2016 8:16:46 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mnandii wrote:
hisah wrote:
Now that BoJ has decided to implement NIR like ECB, this ensures it's now safe to short the yen. So another long term play is selling yens until BoJ comes out with another bazooka to change this devaluation stance.

Best play will be long USDJPY as yen funds rush into USD.

Btw this BoJ move is a nasty curveball for chingland. Another round of yuan devaluation is now very likely.

If the fed hikes rates in March the bottom will definitely be blown into pieces as the USD strength rips the markets apart!

But this strong USD will also be a problem for US. An epic bubble will form as it sucks in capital from everywhere. That bubble pop will definitely shake the global economy. A new reserve currency will emerge then during that chaotic pop.


Expecting a strong down move in the pair toward 105.30s

Yes. But long term the yen is toast just like pound and now the aussie.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mnandii
#3354 Posted : Saturday, February 06, 2016 8:58:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


The scenario for USDJPY. Pips to be made here during wave c up (>300 pips) and then the BIG one wave (iii) down (approx. 1500 pips).
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3355 Posted : Saturday, February 06, 2016 9:01:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
EMOTIONAL MARKETS SERVE THE WAVE PRINCIPLE WELL.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3356 Posted : Monday, February 08, 2016 7:48:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:


The scenario for USDJPY. Pips to be made here during wave c up (>300 pips) and then the BIG one wave (iii) down (approx. 1500 pips).


I use Elliott Waves always to analyse the market. However, this is a GREAT confirming signal of the bearish view I hold for USDJPY.



Weekly chart. That trend line break is very important! Expect no rallies any time soon in the pair (fundamentals or not) till we get down to 105.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#3357 Posted : Monday, February 08, 2016 10:46:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


The scenario for USDJPY. Pips to be made here during wave c up (>300 pips) and then the BIG one wave (iii) down (approx. 1500 pips).


I use Elliott Waves always to analyse the market. However, this is a GREAT confirming signal of the bearish view I hold for USDJPY.



Weekly chart. That trend line break is very important! Expect no rallies any time soon in the pair (fundamentals or not) till we get down to 105.

Nice smile
It's interesting to see the BoJ fighting with their yen, which is moving from a stubborn pet phase to the monster phase. This is where they'll attempt the craziest thing ever as desperation hits the peak. If they attempt to peg the yen to the USD that will be the end... Will they attempt this in a desperate move to try and devalue the yen to regain control?

The expected global bidless blackhole event will be epic!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#3358 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2016 10:21:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


The scenario for USDJPY. Pips to be made here during wave c up (>300 pips) and then the BIG one wave (iii) down (approx. 1500 pips).


I use Elliott Waves always to analyse the market. However, this is a GREAT confirming signal of the bearish view I hold for USDJPY.



Weekly chart. That trend line break is very important! Expect no rallies any time soon in the pair (fundamentals or not) till we get down to 105.


Great call @mnandii, the bears have been taking out stops by the bulls to the current 112.6 levels. I highly doubt there are any other major stops between current levels and your 105 target!
@SufficientlyP
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alutacontinua
#3359 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2016 5:01:43 PM
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Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
Rumours of BOJ intervention sees USDJPY rally to 113 in 5 minutes then back down to 112 in a minute.....really hope no one short was stopped out.

The weekly chart of UJ is just nasty.....safe haven flows despite -ve interest rates are giving Kuroda sleepless nights me thinks. His ammunition now including Verbal intervention smdh

Still dont see how it will work if global equities continue to sell off. @Mnandii def agree that a break will open up the 105 level.
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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hisah
#3360 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2016 5:48:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
alutacontinua wrote:
Rumours of BOJ intervention sees USDJPY rally to 113 in 5 minutes then back down to 112 in a minute.....really hope no one short was stopped out.

The weekly chart of UJ is just nasty.....safe haven flows despite -ve interest rates are giving Kuroda sleepless nights me thinks. His ammunition now including Verbal intervention smdh

Still dont see how it will work if global equities continue to sell off. @Mnandii def agree that a break will open up the 105 level.

BoJ will attempt crazy things to devalue the yen. It's suicidal to be long yens long term.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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