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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Well. 2015 was a bear run and Bamburi wad up 25%, what's to stop it being resilient in 2016. I expect it to drop but now not by 50% like some stocks already have. Cough, cough britam The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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I have noted with profound concern that this bear run is a psychological law where individuals are battling for a bargain. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Spikes wrote:I have noted with profound concern that this bear run is a psychological law where individuals are battling for a bargain. the main cause of a bear is willing sellers. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Financial stocks especially banks  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:Financial stocks especially banks You've really stressed on the banks. How bad? Pe of 5? Dividend yield of 10%? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:Financial stocks especially banks You've really stressed on the banks. How bad? Pe of 5? Dividend yield of 10%? The ensuing USD buffalo charge is going to crash banking stocks everywhere. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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As a cartoonist I can see the likelihood of the USD mounting a dizzy rally in the next bullish climb. The USD pegs will not survive this buffalo charge. All the pegs will breakdown causing that bidless blackhole effect I keep on stating. Will markets be shutdown for weeks in order to force investors to get back their heads?! This is a 45 year cartoon of the USD index since 1970. Heading back to challenge 116 and if it breaks down, liquidity will evaporate very fast!  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:Well. 2015 was a bear run and Bamburi wad up 25%, what's to stop it being resilient in 2016. I expect it to drop but now not by 50% like some stocks already have. Cough, cough britam CIC... possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:As a cartoonist I can see the likelihood of the USD mounting a dizzy rally in the next bullish climb. The USD pegs will not survive this buffalo charge. All the pegs will breakdown causing that bidless blackhole effect I keep on stating. Will markets be shutdown for weeks in order to force investors to get back their heads?! This is a 45 year cartoon of the USD index since 1970. Heading back to challenge 116 and if it breaks down, liquidity will evaporate very fast! AUD,CAD,ZAR,SAR and other commodity currencies especially will continue having it rough as the oil glut and entry of Iran takes its toll further on oil prices. This should push the USD index to previous highs. I heard KE Treasury secretary is contemplating Eurobond2  . All the best for him. #USDTurbo @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:As a cartoonist I can see the likelihood of the USD mounting a dizzy rally in the next bullish climb. The USD pegs will not survive this buffalo charge. All the pegs will breakdown causing that bidless blackhole effect I keep on stating. Will markets be shutdown for weeks in order to force investors to get back their heads?! This is a 45 year cartoon of the USD index since 1970. Heading back to challenge 116 and if it breaks down, liquidity will evaporate very fast! AUD,CAD,ZAR,SAR and other commodity currencies especially will continue having it rough as the oil glut and entry of Iran takes its toll further on oil prices. This should push the USD index to previous highs. I heard KE Treasury secretary is contemplating Eurobond2 . All the best for him. #USDTurbo I don't think its Euro Bond 2 but rather we're back to borrowing local Headline wrote:Kenya: Treasury Set to Borrow More Locally As Foreign Credit Gets Expensive "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:As a cartoonist I can see the likelihood of the USD mounting a dizzy rally in the next bullish climb. The USD pegs will not survive this buffalo charge. All the pegs will breakdown causing that bidless blackhole effect I keep on stating. Will markets be shutdown for weeks in order to force investors to get back their heads?! This is a 45 year cartoon of the USD index since 1970. Heading back to challenge 116 and if it breaks down, liquidity will evaporate very fast! AUD,CAD,ZAR,SAR and other commodity currencies especially will continue having it rough as the oil glut and entry of Iran takes its toll further on oil prices. This should push the USD index to previous highs. I heard KE Treasury secretary is contemplating Eurobond2 . All the best for him. #USDTurbo I don't think its Euro Bond 2 but rather we're back to borrowing local Headline wrote:Kenya: Treasury Set to Borrow More Locally As Foreign Credit Gets Expensive Eurobond borrowing is now a finished play. Going that way will just ensure you burn your economy as USD buffalo stampede blows up your repayment budgets.
Borrowing locally will also fail. Bidless blackhole! Unless govts start paying premium rates on bonds their bonds will go bidless!
The USD buffalo rout will wreak havoc that no govt expects! Politicians are in big trouble when the market will start refusing to give capital to govts.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:As a cartoonist I can see the likelihood of the USD mounting a dizzy rally in the next bullish climb. The USD pegs will not survive this buffalo charge. All the pegs will breakdown causing that bidless blackhole effect I keep on stating. Will markets be shutdown for weeks in order to force investors to get back their heads?! This is a 45 year cartoon of the USD index since 1970. Heading back to challenge 116 and if it breaks down, liquidity will evaporate very fast! AUD,CAD,ZAR,SAR and other commodity currencies especially will continue having it rough as the oil glut and entry of Iran takes its toll further on oil prices. This should push the USD index to previous highs. I heard KE Treasury secretary is contemplating Eurobond2 . All the best for him. #USDTurbo I don't think its Euro Bond 2 but rather we're back to borrowing local Headline wrote:Kenya: Treasury Set to Borrow More Locally As Foreign Credit Gets Expensive Eurobond borrowing is now a finished play. Going that way will just ensure you burn your economy as USD buffalo stampede blows up your repayment budgets.
Borrowing locally will also fail. Bidless blackhole! Unless govts start paying premium rates on bonds their bonds will go bidless!
The USD buffalo rout will wreak havoc that no govt expects! Politicians are in big trouble when the market will start refusing to give capital to govts. In the short term, we should forget borrowing in the international markets,that is, at least for the next one and a half years. Insisting on external funding at this point will be tantamount to sovereign financial suicide. I think the cs is engaging in tomfoolery trying to diffuse the spike in local tbill/bond rates so that treasury is able to raise more at an affordable rate but the market ain't budging. When push comes to shove tbills/bonds will be the only way out though at handsome premium. Treasury will curse the day they decided to raise the eurobond. That gravy train where African countries were roped in just as the global economy was about to tip over will be a very painful ride in coming times. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,126 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:Financial stocks especially banks You've really stressed on the banks. How bad? Pe of 5? Dividend yield of 10%? Which financial stock yields 10%? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,126 Location: Nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:As a cartoonist I can see the likelihood of the USD mounting a dizzy rally in the next bullish climb. The USD pegs will not survive this buffalo charge. All the pegs will breakdown causing that bidless blackhole effect I keep on stating. Will markets be shutdown for weeks in order to force investors to get back their heads?! This is a 45 year cartoon of the USD index since 1970. Heading back to challenge 116 and if it breaks down, liquidity will evaporate very fast! AUD,CAD,ZAR,SAR and other commodity currencies especially will continue having it rough as the oil glut and entry of Iran takes its toll further on oil prices. This should push the USD index to previous highs. I heard KE Treasury secretary is contemplating Eurobond2 . All the best for him. #USDTurbo I don't think its Euro Bond 2 but rather we're back to borrowing local Headline wrote:Kenya: Treasury Set to Borrow More Locally As Foreign Credit Gets Expensive Eurobond borrowing is now a finished play. Going that way will just ensure you burn your economy as USD buffalo stampede blows up your repayment budgets.
Borrowing locally will also fail. Bidless blackhole! Unless govts start paying premium rates on bonds their bonds will go bidless!
The USD buffalo rout will wreak havoc that no govt expects! Politicians are in big trouble when the market will start refusing to give capital to govts. In the short term, we should forget borrowing in the international markets,that is, at least for the next one and a half years. Insisting on external funding at this point will be tantamount to sovereign financial suicide. I think the cs is engaging in tomfoolery trying to diffuse the spike in local tbill/bond rates so that treasury is able to raise more at an affordable rate but the market ain't budging. When push comes to shove tbills/bonds will be the only way out though at handsome premium. Treasury will curse the day they decided to raise the eurobond. That gravy train where African countries were roped in just as the global economy was about to tip over will be a very painful ride in coming times. No-one was roped into borrowing Forex. It's the misuse of the proceeds that's the problem. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:As a cartoonist I can see the likelihood of the USD mounting a dizzy rally in the next bullish climb. The USD pegs will not survive this buffalo charge. All the pegs will breakdown causing that bidless blackhole effect I keep on stating. Will markets be shutdown for weeks in order to force investors to get back their heads?! This is a 45 year cartoon of the USD index since 1970. Heading back to challenge 116 and if it breaks down, liquidity will evaporate very fast! AUD,CAD,ZAR,SAR and other commodity currencies especially will continue having it rough as the oil glut and entry of Iran takes its toll further on oil prices. This should push the USD index to previous highs. I heard KE Treasury secretary is contemplating Eurobond2 . All the best for him. #USDTurbo I don't think its Euro Bond 2 but rather we're back to borrowing local Headline wrote:Kenya: Treasury Set to Borrow More Locally As Foreign Credit Gets Expensive Eurobond borrowing is now a finished play. Going that way will just ensure you burn your economy as USD buffalo stampede blows up your repayment budgets.
Borrowing locally will also fail. Bidless blackhole! Unless govts start paying premium rates on bonds their bonds will go bidless!
The USD buffalo rout will wreak havoc that no govt expects! Politicians are in big trouble when the market will start refusing to give capital to govts. In the short term, we should forget borrowing in the international markets,that is, at least for the next one and a half years. Insisting on external funding at this point will be tantamount to sovereign financial suicide. I think the cs is engaging in tomfoolery trying to diffuse the spike in local tbill/bond rates so that treasury is able to raise more at an affordable rate but the market ain't budging. When push comes to shove tbills/bonds will be the only way out though at handsome premium. Treasury will curse the day they decided to raise the eurobond. That gravy train where African countries were roped in just as the global economy was about to tip over will be a very painful ride in coming times. No-one was roped into borrowing Forex. It's the misuse of the proceeds that's the problem. The cheap(relatively) rates roped in new clients aka African countries who previously had not raised money via eurobonds et al. Emerging markets are getting a beatdown thanks to dollar denominated debt...I do not expect African economies to fair any better whether the funds were prudently utilized or not. We are now much more in sync with the global economy courtesy of the eurobond and its misuse only makes a bad problem worse. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Back last year when I stated that real estate would fall, no one believed. Now rents have started falling for the first time in 15 years. Take note that this is just the beginning! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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I still maintain that the KES should strengthen against the USD. This is contrary to what @hisah is saying but I stick by my Elliott Wave analysis of the pair. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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The war on cash. They want you to maintain your funds electronically! In a depression cash is king Quote:Bank clients to say who receives the cash if they withdraw over Sh1m
Bank customers have to name beneficiaries of cash withdrawals above Sh1 million and justify not using electronic transfer, the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has ordered in a circular.
The industry regulator’s order dated January 5, 2016 aims to fight flow of graft funds—usually transmitted in cash to avoid tracing and evade tax—through the banking and micro-banking system.
“The CBK asks institutions to obtain the following additional information while handling large cash transactions: Why the large cash deposit or withdrawal is necessary? Why it cannot be done through electronic means? The full identity of the intended beneficiaries of the money,” said the CBK the circular.
The regulator defines a large transaction as one exceeding $10,000 (Sh1 million) or its equivalent in any currency. Customers will also be required to disclose where they will be taking the money immediately it leaves the bank and what it will be used for.
[url=http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Bank-clients-to-say-who-receives-the-cash-/-/539552/3050030/-/72o1k8z/-/index.html]link[/url] Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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How socionomics predicts the future! 'EPIDEMICS'  Quote:Socionomic theory proposes that long periods of negative mood produce a number of conditions that make society increasingly susceptible to infectious disease. Read more: http://www.elliottwave.c...pics.aspx#ixzz3yPyeinIu Follow us: @elliottwaveintl on Twitter | ElliottWaveInternational on Facebook Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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